July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[wdrag]

No thread Fri-Sun but have no changes on expectations...NYC-KEWR 100F has the least certainty.   sct svr, iso FF both Fri afternoon-Sunday.  Iso 72 hr total 5+. Will recheck with a little more time to digest tomorrow morning 6A. Plan on active Fri aft and Sunday. 

 

[psv88]

85 at home today, was upper 70s and beautiful in Newport all week. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I do not need rain 

I fixed it for you. Speak for you’re location. This area contains many micro climates. Parts of the east end of the island received .05” during the big New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley flood event. It’s like claiming a region was hit by a hurricane because of a micro burst. Something that is still open to interpretation with colonial weather observations.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we have had plenty of rain, one can argue it's too much rain.  This is our first four day period without rain since early June.  I only expect or want rain one day per week at most.

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

[Monty]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

If he drives around, he had better have one hell of a data plan. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Is that Xmacis?

Yes. The most extreme rainfall event if that era was in August 1843. There  are some accounts of them calling it the great flood of 1843.

1843-08-05

74

61

67.5

-10.1

0

3

15.00

The coldest winter of that era was 1867-1868 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	24.7	0
-	1867-1868	24.7	23
2	1917-1918	25.0	17
3	1904-1905	25.3	1
4	1892-1893	25.4	40
5	1872-1873	25.7	17
6	1874-1875	26.2	13
7	1919-1920	26.7	25
8	1880-1881	27.0	15
9	1935-1936	27.1	0
-	1855-1856	27.1	11
10	1976-1977	27.6	0

The global temperatures were still cold enough in 1982 just before the baseline rise in 1983 for the most impressive April cold and snow going back to 1843. So the climate in the late 70s and early 80s wasn’t that far removed from the cold of the mid 1800s.

The low max at Newark of 30° following the April blizzard still stands to this day beating anything from that era. Plus the 12.0” of snow on 4-6-82 is still the latest foot of snow ever recorded at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1982	30	0
2	1938	32	0
3	1898	33	0
-	1862	33	1
5	1919	34	2
-	1896	34	1
-	1874	34	1
-	1868	34	1

 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1982	04-06 (1982)	12.8	02-11 (1983)	14.0	310
1915	04-03 (1915)	15.8	-	-	-
1956	03-19 (1956)	12.7	-	-	-
1852	03-17 (1852)	12.0	-	-	-
1941	03-08 (1941)	12.0	-	-	-
1960	03-03 (1960)	12.5	12-12 (1960)	16.7	283

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

I can't be concerned with a measly 4 days without rain when the number one killer on the planet is flooding and we've seen hundreds of people die from flooding.  I wouldn't mind if we didn't see rain for another month.  Having a lawn isn't important to me and I'm used to not seeing rain in the summer.  Our reservoirs are at 93% there really is no need for rain.  We get synoptic rains 9 months out of the year, there is zero need for that kind of rain in the summer.  Summer is supposed to be our dry season, I've been used to dry summers my entire life living here, I'm not sure where you got the idea that we're supposed to have a tropical rain forest kind of climate.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? 
During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. 
The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here.

I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory. 

I'm also used to seeing dry lawns when I drive around, it's normal around here in the summer and nothing to be concerned about.  Lawns are ornamental only and serve no environmental purpose whatsoever.  In the storm you referenced I got about 1.5 inches of rain.  You're acting like we haven't had any rain in 8 weeks.  We do NOT need any rain, our area is used to having dry summers, that is NORMAL for here.  As a matter of fact, the Long Islanders I know who grow grapes and make wine LOVE dry summers.  The only people I know who whine about lack of rain are weather weenies like you.  I can understand wanting snow in the winter, I see ZERO reason for ANYONE to want rain during the beach season in the summer, you get rain 9 months out of the year, we need a break from rain for a few weeks so people can enjoy their beach season.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes. The most extreme rainfall event if that era was in August 1843. There  are some accounts of them calling it the great flood of 1843.

1843-08-05

74

61

67.5

-10.1

0

3

15.00

The coldest winter of that era was 1867-1868 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	24.7	0
-	1867-1868	24.7	23
2	1917-1918	25.0	17
3	1904-1905	25.3	1
4	1892-1893	25.4	40
5	1872-1873	25.7	17
6	1874-1875	26.2	13
7	1919-1920	26.7	25
8	1880-1881	27.0	15
9	1935-1936	27.1	0
-	1855-1856	27.1	11
10	1976-1977	27.6	0

The global temperatures were still cold enough in 1982 just before the baseline rise in 1983 for the most impressive April cold and snow going back to 1843. So the climate in the late 70s and early 80s wasn’t that far removed from the cold of the mid 1800s.

The low max at Newark of 30° following the April blizzard still stands to this day beating anything from that era. Plus the 12.0” of snow on 4-6-82 is still the latest foot of snow ever recorded at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1982	30	0
2	1938	32	0
3	1898	33	0
-	1862	33	1
5	1919	34	2
-	1896	34	1
-	1874	34	1
-	1868	34	1

 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1982	04-06 (1982)	12.8	02-11 (1983)	14.0	310
1915	04-03 (1915)	15.8	-	-	-
1956	03-19 (1956)	12.7	-	-	-
1852	03-17 (1852)	12.0	-	-	-
1941	03-08 (1941)	12.0	-	-	-
1960	03-03 (1960)	12.5	12-12 (1960)	16.7	283

That's hard to digest Chris, the climate was already markedly warming in the 1950s.....

As a matter of fact some of our greatest heatwaves were in the 40s and 50s.  Those have not been matched since.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I fixed it for you. Speak for you’re location. This area contains many micro climates. Parts of the east end of the island received .05” during the big New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley flood event. It’s like claiming a region was hit by a hurricane because of a micro burst. Something that is still open to interpretation with colonial weather observations.

 

I know a lot of east enders who grow grapes those guys love their dry summers.  The best Long Island wines come from dry summers.

Look I would understand if the reservoirs were at 60%, but they are above normal at 93%, there is no need for rain.  Wait until they drop below 90% at least.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know a lot of east enders who grow grapes those guys love their dry summers.  The best Long Island wines come from dry summers.

Look I would understand if the reservoirs were at 60%, but they are above normal at 93%, there is no need for rain.  Wait until they drop below 90% at least.

The need for rain is more than just reservoir and well levels. Again, I’m not fretting, but the vegetation that doesn’t grow in a reservoir could use a drink. It’s not the end of the world but it’s reality. If some brush fires get going soon I’m sure all the first responders will find solace knowing that the reservoirs are full. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

The need for rain is more than just reservoir and well levels. Again, I’m not fretting, but the vegetation that doesn’t grow in a reservoir could use a drink. It’s not the end of the world but it’s reality. If some brush fires get going soon I’m sure all the first responders will find solace knowing that the reservoirs are full. 

I understand; tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, they all need a lot of rain (I used to grow them, now I grow only flowers-- they need less watering lol).  It's a fine line between rain and fungus/mold though ;-)  I wouldn't mind rain Saturday night, it wouldn't interrupt anyone's beach plans.

[WestBabylonWeather]

What is the timing on the storms that are going to be crossing LI later? 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's hard to digest Chris, the climate was already markedly warming in the 1950s.....

As a matter of fact some of our greatest heatwaves were in the 40s and 50s.  Those have not been matched since.

 

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

Wasn't 2014 much cooler than 2010-2013-- we had less than 10 90 degree days in 2014.

Many of those long heatwave records and number of 95+ degree days and number of 100+ degree days  from summers like 1953 and 1955 and 1966 have not been matched since.

 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

What is the timing on the storms that are going to be crossing LI later? 

Looks like mid to late afternoon. Hopefully if they come from the N in CT they hold together better than usual. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

wow 1944 and 1949 were even better than 1953 and 1955 (although the latter two were more concentrated and even more extreme at their peak.)

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

Wasn't the summer of 1984 much cooler than the historic summer of 1983 (my first summer on Long Island, after we moved from Brooklyn in November of 1982, my two benchmark Long Island events were the February 1983 Blizzard and the historic Summer of 1983.)

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t  had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0

Having 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, one right after the other was pretty wild too-- the only interruption was 1992 and that was because of Pinatubo erupting.

 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't the summer of 1984 much cooler than the historic summer of 1983 (my first summer on Long Island, after we moved from Brooklyn in November of 1982, my two benchmark Long Island events were the February 1983 Blizzard and the historic Summer of 1983.)

 

The last cool summer here was in 2014. But it wasn’t as cool as 2009 which had the coolest June and July since the 1940s. Our summers switched to much warmer and 2010. So there have been no cool summers with 15 or lower 90° days since the 15-16 baseline jump in temperatures. We would frequently get a few warmer summers followed a much cooler one. Now it’s all well above the historical 90° norms with no cool summers anymore. As you can see on the charts below, we had plenty of those cooler summers in the 1940s and 1950s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
-	1946	12	0
7	2004	13	0
8	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
-	1956	14	0
11	2014	15	0
-	1976	15	0
-	1969	15	0
-	1960	15	0
-	1942	15	0
-	1940	15	0

 

Coldest June-July since 1940Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1940-07-31	71.5	0
2	2009-07-31	71.6	0
3	1947-07-31	71.7	0
4	1958-07-31	72.2	0
-	1946-07-31	72.2	0
5	1945-07-31	72.4	0
6	1956-07-31	72.5	0
7	1985-07-31	72.8	0
8	1951-07-31	72.9	0
-	1950-07-31	72.9	0
-	1941-07-31	72.9	0
9	2000-07-31	73.0	0
10	1967-07-31	73.1	0
-	1962-07-31	73.1	0
-	1948-07-31	73.1	0
-	1942-07-31	73.1	0

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yes. The most extreme rainfall event if that era was in August 1843. There  are some accounts of them calling it the great flood of 1843.

1843-08-05

74

61

67.5

-10.1

0

3

15.00

The coldest winter of that era was 1867-1868 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	24.7	0
-	1867-1868	24.7	23
2	1917-1918	25.0	17
3	1904-1905	25.3	1
4	1892-1893	25.4	40
5	1872-1873	25.7	17
6	1874-1875	26.2	13
7	1919-1920	26.7	25
8	1880-1881	27.0	15
9	1935-1936	27.1	0
-	1855-1856	27.1	11
10	1976-1977	27.6	0

The global temperatures were still cold enough in 1982 just before the baseline rise in 1983 for the most impressive April cold and snow going back to 1843. So the climate in the late 70s and early 80s wasn’t that far removed from the cold of the mid 1800s.

The low max at Newark of 30° following the April blizzard still stands to this day beating anything from that era. Plus the 12.0” of snow on 4-6-82 is still the latest foot of snow ever recorded at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1982	30	0
2	1938	32	0
3	1898	33	0
-	1862	33	1
5	1919	34	2
-	1896	34	1
-	1874	34	1
-	1868	34	1

 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1982	04-06 (1982)	12.8	02-11 (1983)	14.0	310
1915	04-03 (1915)	15.8	-	-	-
1956	03-19 (1956)	12.7	-	-	-
1852	03-17 (1852)	12.0	-	-	-
1941	03-08 (1941)	12.0	-	-	-
1960	03-03 (1960)	12.5	12-12 (1960)	16.7	283

Thank you. I will have to check it out once I get back from Maine next week.

[Sundog]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

We do not need rain 

Summer rains are almost always hit and miss and coverage can vary. 

Some spots are browning, others are good. 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last cool summer here was in 2014. But it wasn’t as cool as 2009 which had the coolest June and July since the 1940s. Our summers switched to much warmer and 2010. So there have been no cool summers with 15 or lower 90° days since the 15-16 baseline jump in temperatures. We would frequently get a few warmer summers followed a much cooler one. Now it’s all well above the historical 90° norms with no cool summers anymore. As you can see on the charts below, we had plenty of those cooler summers in the 1940s and 1950s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
-	1946	12	0
7	2004	13	0
8	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
-	1956	14	0
11	2014	15	0
-	1976	15	0
-	1969	15	0
-	1960	15	0
-	1942	15	0
-	1940	15	0

 

Coldest June-July since 1940Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1940-07-31	71.5	0
2	2009-07-31	71.6	0
3	1947-07-31	71.7	0
4	1958-07-31	72.2	0
-	1946-07-31	72.2	0
5	1945-07-31	72.4	0
6	1956-07-31	72.5	0
7	1985-07-31	72.8	0
8	1951-07-31	72.9	0
-	1950-07-31	72.9	0
-	1941-07-31	72.9	0
9	2000-07-31	73.0	0
10	1967-07-31	73.1	0
-	1962-07-31	73.1	0
-	1948-07-31	73.1	0
-	1942-07-31	73.1	0

We might need another volcanic eruption like Pinatubo in 1992 to get a cool summer like that again.  If it wasn't for Pinatubo we would have had a 5 year hot summer streak from 1991-1995.

I remember in 1990 and 1991 we were talking about how historically hot it was in NYC, 23 out of 24 months above normal and record world heat at that time (average global temperature over 57 degrees for both years.)

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

83 / 72  sunny.  Hot one - hottest day since Jul 8th - mid - upper 90s, a race to 100 vs clouds and storms/showers later this evening.   Will be close.   Weekend gets a reprieve from heat with onshore Saturday / inland hotter areas still to 90 on Satruday,  Clouds / storms on Sunday keep it cooler.  Mon - Wed hot again as stronger heat bubbles north ,Tue 850 MB temps >18c - >19c push the hot spots to the upper 90s / perhaps low 100s, still need to watch clouds / storms.    Ridge backs west by the 31st with cooler period that sees a onshore flow develop before warm-hot returns around the 7/8th.  

 

7/25 - 7/30 :  Hot / Humid - Storms Fri PM / Sun - Peak heat Fri /Tue-Wed
7/31 - 8/7 :  Cooler - overall near normal  drier
8/8 :  Overall warm - hot / Humid 

 

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

83 / 72  sunny.  Hot one - hottest day since Jul 8th - mid - upper 90s, a race to 100 vs clouds and storms/showers later this evening.   Will be close.   Weekend gets a reprieve from heat with onshore Saturday / inland hotter areas still to 90 on Satruday,  Clouds / storms on Sunday keep it cooler.  Mon - Wed hot again as stronger heat bubbles north ,Tue 850 MB temps >18c - >19c push the hot spots to the upper 90s / perhaps low 100s, still need to watch clouds / storms.    Ridge backs west by the 31st with cooler period that sees a onshore flow develop before warm-hot returns around the 7/8th.  

 

7/25 - 7/30 :  Hot / Humid - Storms Fri PM / Sun - Peak heat Fri /Tue-Wed
7/31 - 8/7 :  Cooler - overall near normal  drier
8/8 :  Overall warm - hot / Humid 

 

looks like a really good summer stretch and Saturday at least should be a decent beach day. 

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I can't be concerned with a measly 4 days without rain when the number one killer on the planet is flooding and we've seen hundreds of people die from flooding.  I wouldn't mind if we didn't see rain for another month.  Having a lawn isn't important to me and I'm used to not seeing rain in the summer.  Our reservoirs are at 93% there really is no need for rain.  We get synoptic rains 9 months out of the year, there is zero need for that kind of rain in the summer.  Summer is supposed to be our dry season, I've been used to dry summers my entire life living here, I'm not sure where you got the idea that we're supposed to have a tropical rain forest kind of climate.

 

im in the lawn business....believe me the lawns come back...i dont know why people fret so much about them. There will always be dry stretches during the May to October season where lawns go through a cycle of browning out. It doesnt take much to bring them back. I think 2022 was really really bad around my parts...dry and lots of 95 to over 100 temps. Last year was ok in the summer but the lawns crisped up in September with no rain. 

 

This year we havent skipped any lawns for dryness which is the first time i can remember in almost 10 years. We shall see as we progress through some more 90 plus days in the next week..a thundershower or two mixed in will keep the lawns going.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR:  99 (2016)  one of only 2 days in Jul with record highs not 100 or higher
NYC: 97 (1999)
LGA: 97 (1999)
JFK: 93 (2010)
New Brunswck: 98 (2010)



Lows:

EWR: 57 (1932)
NYC: 57 (1953)
LGA: 59 (1997)
JFK: 59 (1997)
New Brunswick: 52 (2003)


Historical:

 

1609: The Jamestown expedition nearly came to an untimely end as the fleet of ships encountered a tropical storm while sailing northwest through the Bahamas. One of the nine ships sunk and the rest of the fleet scattered as far north as Bermuda. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1891 - The mercury hit 109 degrees at Los Angeles, CA, marking the peak of a torrid heat wave. (David Ludlum)

1936: Lincoln, Nebraska saw an all-time high temperature of 115 degrees. The low only dropped to 91 degrees and the average temperature was 103. Many people spent the night sleeping outside to escape the heat. 

 

1952: The State of Alabama was in the midst of a critical heat wave and drought. During an 8-day stretch, the "coolest" high temperature in Birmingham was 99°. The heat peaked on this date in Birmingham at 106°. This was just one degree short of the highest temperature ever recorded at Birmingham on 7/29/1930. During that heat wave and drought, some wells in Alabama went dry for the very first time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1956 - The Andrea Doria sank in dense fog near Nantucket Lightship, MA. The ship was rammed by the Swedish-American liner, Stockholm, forty-five miles off the coast of Massachusetts. Fifty-two persons drowned, or were killed by the impact. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1959: The depression meandered westward while steadily intensifying, becoming a Tropical Storm Debra on July 24. A turn towards the northwest became evident as it attained Category 1 hurricane status on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale on the following day. Strength was maintained as the hurricane curved northward at a slow forward speed, and it approached the coast of Texas as a minimal hurricane. Debra made landfall between Freeport and Galveston, Texas early on July 25. Debra rapidly weakened into a tropical storm and later a depression as it moved inland, and it dissipated on July 28. The remnant moisture later sparked upper-level thunderstorms in late July and early August.[2] Torrential rains were produced in southeastern Texas, peaking at 15.89 inches in Orange. This led to widespread flooding on highways, including portions of Farm Road 518, Highway 6, Highway 146, and U.S. Route 75. Sea vessels took the brunt of the storm, with many becoming stranded or damaged. Air, rail, and road transportation were significantly interrupted or even shut down. High winds from the storm caused expansive damage to buildings, windows, signs, and roofs. The hurricane resulted in 11 injuries but no human deaths, although approximately 90 cattle drowned. Damage in Brazoria, Galveston, and Harris counties surmounted $6.685 million. Additionally, impact in other areas increased the total losses to $7 million. (Ref. Wikipedia) (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1972: Killing heat from 13th to 25th resulted in 185 deaths in Baltimore and 85 in the rest of MD. This heat wave in New York and Northeastern United States was significant as almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days.  (1972 Heat Wave - Wikipedia.org)

1974: Brownsville, Minn.--Lightning killed a 17-year-old youth as he slept in a tent. A companion was injured. Western Texas--Lightning struck and fatally injured a woman during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1979: Flooding continues from Tropical Storm Claudette produced phenomenal rainfall totals in southeast Texas. 43 inches fell in 24 hours around Alvin; setting a U.S. record. Freeport reported a total of 30 inches. Total damage from flooding was over $400 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1984: The hardest hit area was the state capital of Pierre of SD. Winds gusting to 83 mph demolished 13 planes and several hangers at the Pierre airport. The thunderstorm also produced very heavy rains as 4 inches of rain fell in 30 minutes flooding streets across town. Winds in excess of 70 mph caused crop and property damage in many areas across central South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1986 - Tremendous hailstones pounded parts of South Dakota damaging crops, buildings and vehicles. Hail piled two feet deep at Black Hawk and northern Rapid City. Hail an inch and a quarter in diameter fell for 85 minutes near Miller and Huron, piling up to depths of two feet. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Sixteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record high of 91 degrees, established just the previous day. It marked their fourth day in a row of 90 degree heat, after hitting 90 degrees just twice in the previous 25 years of records. The water temperature of Lake Erie at Buffalo, NY, reached 79 degrees, the warmest reading in 52 years of records. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from central Kansas to western Kentucky and southern Illinois during the day. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Union, MO, and winds gusts to 65 mph at Sedalia, MO. Five cities in Washington and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date. Medford, OR, hit 107 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early afternoon thunderstorms over west central Missouri drenched the town of Ferguson with four inches of rain. Early evening thunderstorms in Pennsylvania produced more than two inches of rain north of Avella in one hour. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Intense, slow-moving thunderstorms, dumped up to 11 inches of rain in just 6 hours at Lawton, OK. The flash flooding closed many roads, and 50 to 60 motorists had to be rescued when they became stranded in the high water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1992: Grapefruit sized hail knocked windshields out of several cars about 9.5 miles northeast of Scott City, KS.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Lightning prevalent in north and eastern GA - 12 homes hit in Cobb County (2 destroyed). A police officer in Augusta survived a strike while working a traffic accident. On the 26th, 10 people at the Atlanta Zoo were injured by lightning while sheltering under a gazebo. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1997: Campbell County, VA a lightning strike injured a man at Timberlake. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1998: Kansas City was especially hard hit by heavy rain with the suburb of Independence reporting 6.5 inches of rain, most of it falling in a matter of a few hours. Thunderstorms produced 2 to 3 inches of rain over parts of Banner and Cheyenne counties of the Nebraska panhandle, with local amounts around 4.5 inches. This produced flash flooding which closed some county roads, and put 6 to 18 inches of water on some streets in Sidney, NE. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: An F4 tornado at Granite Falls, MN caused one fatality and $20 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: The citizens of Sand Point, Alaska saw a rare tornado touchdown on two uninhabited islands. Sand Point is part of the Aleutian Chain and is located about 570 miles southwest of Anchorage.

2006: It was the hottest day during the current heat wave in central California. Some record highs included: Delano: 116°, Three Rivers: 116°, Wasco: 114°, China Lake Naval Air Station: 113°, Fresno: 113°, Bakersfield: 112 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2010: The 105 °F recorded at the Richmond International Airport on the 24th and 25th also ties the highest maximum temperature ever recorded in July in Richmond. The high of 105 °F and low of 79 °F on these two dates yields a daily average temp of 92.0 °F which breaks the all-time daily mean temp of 91.5. Thus making these two dates the hottest days ever recorded in the past 113 years for Richmond. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) This highest temperature ever recorded for July of 105 °F has occurred on two other dates. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)
On the 25th, damaging straight line thunderstorm winds with widespread gusts 60-75 mph and isolated gusts to 90 mph across parts of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties in Virginia and Montgomery, northern Prince Georges, Ann Arundel and Charles counties in Maryland and in Washington, DC. The storm resulted in 3 deaths from wind and one from lightning, widespread damage from downed trees and power lines, and loss of power to more than 300,000 customers.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

im in the lawn business....believe me the lawns come back...i dont know why people fret so much about them. There will always be dry stretches during the May to October season where lawns go through a cycle of browning out. It doesnt take much to bring them back. I think 2022 was really really bad around my parts...dry and lots of 95 to over 100 temps. Last year was ok in the summer but the lawns crisped up in September with no rain. 

 

This year we havent skipped any lawns for dryness which is the first time i can remember in almost 10 years. We shall see as we progress through some more 90 plus days in the next week..a thundershower or two mixed in will keep the lawns going.

Yeah we really don't get the kind of droughts here that they get in California and other places out west.  I don't think we can go more than 6-7 days without rain here in the summer anymore.  We might get a lot of rain at once, which isn't good either.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR:  99 (2016)  one of only 2 days in Jul with record highs not 100 or higher
NYC: 97 (1999)
LGA: 97 (1999)
JFK: 93 (2010)
New Brunswck: 98 (2010)



Lows:

EWR: 57 (1932)
NYC: 57 (1953)
LGA: 59 (1997)
JFK: 59 (1997)
New Brunswick: 52 (2003)


Historical:

 

1609: The Jamestown expedition nearly came to an untimely end as the fleet of ships encountered a tropical storm while sailing northwest through the Bahamas. One of the nine ships sunk and the rest of the fleet scattered as far north as Bermuda. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1891 - The mercury hit 109 degrees at Los Angeles, CA, marking the peak of a torrid heat wave. (David Ludlum)

1936: Lincoln, Nebraska saw an all-time high temperature of 115 degrees. The low only dropped to 91 degrees and the average temperature was 103. Many people spent the night sleeping outside to escape the heat. 

 

1952: The State of Alabama was in the midst of a critical heat wave and drought. During an 8-day stretch, the "coolest" high temperature in Birmingham was 99°. The heat peaked on this date in Birmingham at 106°. This was just one degree short of the highest temperature ever recorded at Birmingham on 7/29/1930. During that heat wave and drought, some wells in Alabama went dry for the very first time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1956 - The Andrea Doria sank in dense fog near Nantucket Lightship, MA. The ship was rammed by the Swedish-American liner, Stockholm, forty-five miles off the coast of Massachusetts. Fifty-two persons drowned, or were killed by the impact. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1959: The depression meandered westward while steadily intensifying, becoming a Tropical Storm Debra on July 24. A turn towards the northwest became evident as it attained Category 1 hurricane status on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale on the following day. Strength was maintained as the hurricane curved northward at a slow forward speed, and it approached the coast of Texas as a minimal hurricane. Debra made landfall between Freeport and Galveston, Texas early on July 25. Debra rapidly weakened into a tropical storm and later a depression as it moved inland, and it dissipated on July 28. The remnant moisture later sparked upper-level thunderstorms in late July and early August.[2] Torrential rains were produced in southeastern Texas, peaking at 15.89 inches in Orange. This led to widespread flooding on highways, including portions of Farm Road 518, Highway 6, Highway 146, and U.S. Route 75. Sea vessels took the brunt of the storm, with many becoming stranded or damaged. Air, rail, and road transportation were significantly interrupted or even shut down. High winds from the storm caused expansive damage to buildings, windows, signs, and roofs. The hurricane resulted in 11 injuries but no human deaths, although approximately 90 cattle drowned. Damage in Brazoria, Galveston, and Harris counties surmounted $6.685 million. Additionally, impact in other areas increased the total losses to $7 million. (Ref. Wikipedia) (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1972: Killing heat from 13th to 25th resulted in 185 deaths in Baltimore and 85 in the rest of MD. This heat wave in New York and Northeastern United States was significant as almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days.  (1972 Heat Wave - Wikipedia.org)

1974: Brownsville, Minn.--Lightning killed a 17-year-old youth as he slept in a tent. A companion was injured. Western Texas--Lightning struck and fatally injured a woman during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1979: Flooding continues from Tropical Storm Claudette produced phenomenal rainfall totals in southeast Texas. 43 inches fell in 24 hours around Alvin; setting a U.S. record. Freeport reported a total of 30 inches. Total damage from flooding was over $400 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1984: The hardest hit area was the state capital of Pierre of SD. Winds gusting to 83 mph demolished 13 planes and several hangers at the Pierre airport. The thunderstorm also produced very heavy rains as 4 inches of rain fell in 30 minutes flooding streets across town. Winds in excess of 70 mph caused crop and property damage in many areas across central South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1986 - Tremendous hailstones pounded parts of South Dakota damaging crops, buildings and vehicles. Hail piled two feet deep at Black Hawk and northern Rapid City. Hail an inch and a quarter in diameter fell for 85 minutes near Miller and Huron, piling up to depths of two feet. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Sixteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record high of 91 degrees, established just the previous day. It marked their fourth day in a row of 90 degree heat, after hitting 90 degrees just twice in the previous 25 years of records. The water temperature of Lake Erie at Buffalo, NY, reached 79 degrees, the warmest reading in 52 years of records. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from central Kansas to western Kentucky and southern Illinois during the day. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Union, MO, and winds gusts to 65 mph at Sedalia, MO. Five cities in Washington and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date. Medford, OR, hit 107 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early afternoon thunderstorms over west central Missouri drenched the town of Ferguson with four inches of rain. Early evening thunderstorms in Pennsylvania produced more than two inches of rain north of Avella in one hour. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Intense, slow-moving thunderstorms, dumped up to 11 inches of rain in just 6 hours at Lawton, OK. The flash flooding closed many roads, and 50 to 60 motorists had to be rescued when they became stranded in the high water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1992: Grapefruit sized hail knocked windshields out of several cars about 9.5 miles northeast of Scott City, KS.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Lightning prevalent in north and eastern GA - 12 homes hit in Cobb County (2 destroyed). A police officer in Augusta survived a strike while working a traffic accident. On the 26th, 10 people at the Atlanta Zoo were injured by lightning while sheltering under a gazebo. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1997: Campbell County, VA a lightning strike injured a man at Timberlake. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1998: Kansas City was especially hard hit by heavy rain with the suburb of Independence reporting 6.5 inches of rain, most of it falling in a matter of a few hours. Thunderstorms produced 2 to 3 inches of rain over parts of Banner and Cheyenne counties of the Nebraska panhandle, with local amounts around 4.5 inches. This produced flash flooding which closed some county roads, and put 6 to 18 inches of water on some streets in Sidney, NE. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: An F4 tornado at Granite Falls, MN caused one fatality and $20 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: The citizens of Sand Point, Alaska saw a rare tornado touchdown on two uninhabited islands. Sand Point is part of the Aleutian Chain and is located about 570 miles southwest of Anchorage.

2006: It was the hottest day during the current heat wave in central California. Some record highs included: Delano: 116°, Three Rivers: 116°, Wasco: 114°, China Lake Naval Air Station: 113°, Fresno: 113°, Bakersfield: 112 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2010: The 105 °F recorded at the Richmond International Airport on the 24th and 25th also ties the highest maximum temperature ever recorded in July in Richmond. The high of 105 °F and low of 79 °F on these two dates yields a daily average temp of 92.0 °F which breaks the all-time daily mean temp of 91.5. Thus making these two dates the hottest days ever recorded in the past 113 years for Richmond. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) This highest temperature ever recorded for July of 105 °F has occurred on two other dates. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)
On the 25th, damaging straight line thunderstorm winds with widespread gusts 60-75 mph and isolated gusts to 90 mph across parts of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties in Virginia and Montgomery, northern Prince Georges, Ann Arundel and Charles counties in Maryland and in Washington, DC. The storm resulted in 3 deaths from wind and one from lightning, widespread damage from downed trees and power lines, and loss of power to more than 300,000 customers.

 

 

Wild, the endless heat of 1936, 1999 and 2010 continued .....

 

2010: The 105 °F recorded at the Richmond International Airport on the 24th and 25th also ties the highest maximum temperature ever recorded in July in Richmond. The high of 105 °F and low of 79 °F on these two dates yields a daily average temp of 92.0 °F which breaks the all-time daily mean temp of 91.5. Thus making these two dates the hottest days ever recorded in the past 113 years for Richmond. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) This highest temperature ever recorded for July of 105 °F has occurred on two other dates. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)
On the 25th, damaging straight line thunderstorm winds with widespread gusts 60-75 mph and isolated gusts to 90 mph across parts of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties in Virginia and Montgomery, northern Prince Georges, Ann Arundel and Charles counties in Maryland and in Washington, DC. The storm resulted in 3 deaths from wind and one from lightning, widespread damage from downed trees and power lines, and loss of power to more than 300,000 customers.

 

Highs:

EWR:  99 (2016)  one of only 2 days in Jul with record highs not 100 or higher
NYC: 97 (1999)
LGA: 97 (1999)
JFK: 93 (2010)
New Brunswck: 98 (2010)
 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah we really don't get the kind of droughts here that they get in California and other places out west.  I don't think we can go more than 6-7 days without rain here in the summer anymore.  We might get a lot of rain at once, which isn't good either.

 

Im going on 10 days since last rainfall here 

 

Last rainfall for the following

EWR: 7/14
NYC: 7/14
LGA:  7/14
JFK: 7/20