July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We’d probably need 20-30mph southerly wind to keep the north shore that much cooler than NJ/Hudson Valley. We usually heat up pretty fast then we have the breeze eventually by 3-4pm that cools it down but too late (and with the waters so warm not much cooling and more humidity). 

The same thing happens on the south shore, JFK heats up faster than the city up until about 1-2 pm before the sea breeze kicks in.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Even LGA only has 1 100 degree high in that period though.  Maybe it's that monsoon issue you mentioned? Do we see a ramp up in rainfall beginning in the last week of July?

edit-- it's July 24-30 I think the 100 degree records resume on the 31st lol.

We’ll see if Newark can pull off their first 100° reading on July 25th this Friday. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=98&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ6026&month=9&var=high&thres=100&dir=above&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

[doncat]

78 high here today with onshore wind.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

78 high here today with onshore wind.

it could also be because the airmass is cooler.

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Yes  24 - 30 NYC 7/31 : 102 (1933)

Was nyc the warmest today in today's rundown?

[Sundog]

24 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Was nyc the warmest today in today's rundown?

Looks like they tied Somerville at 81 for warmest. LGA had no chance today with the steady NE wind blowing there all day. 

Most other places came in at 80.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Looks like they tied Somerville at 81 for warmest. LGA had no chance today with the steady NE wind blowing there all day. 

Most other places came in at 80.  

Makes sense as the instruments are on the east side of the park so the wind was blowing off the densely urban UES. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Was nyc the warmest today in today's rundown?

If so, the last time Central Park was warmer than Bridgeport, Islip, JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark was May 1.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

PHL: 86
ACY: 82
TEB: 81
TTN: 81
NYC: 81
EWR: 80
New Brnswck: 80
JFK: 80 * no intra hours high 1400 - 2000
BLM: 80
ISP: 79
LGA: 79
 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Those mostly sunny forecasts from last night and this morning were a bit off today,

[SACRUS]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If so, the last time Central Park was warmer than Bridgeport, Islip, JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark was May 1.

 

Last time in July, may have been last year July 4th 2024.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Last time in July, may have been last year July 4th 2024.

It was July 8, 2024.

[JustinRP37]

Cool mornings, these past few. Low was 57 outside my back door this morning. Felt like September. Looking hot at the end of the week.

[bluewave]

Models still on track for 95° to around 100° on Friday away from the shore with severe storms late to cool things down.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Yes  24 - 30 NYC 7/31 : 102 (1933)

These 11 year record highs should be investigated further, looks like we started having these 11 year peak heat summers beginning in 1933 (so it's 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010).... I thought 2021 broke the cycle but it looks like 2021 was very similar to 1988 in that the peak heat was inland.  The next one will be 2032.  It doesn't mean other summers won't be very hot, it just means that the 11 year peak should be hotter than the summers around it.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models still on track for 95° to around 100° on Friday away from the shore with severe storms late to cool things down.

 

 

 

The models are way too aggressive with the sea breeze, in all my experience here, this does not happen, especially in late July, very similar to how certain models show zero snow on Long Island while it's 2 feet at Newark lol.  Just going by local climatology, I'm sure we'll make it to at least the low 90s here before any sea breeze kicks in.

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Cool mornings, these past few. Low was 57 outside my back door this morning. Felt like September. Looking hot at the end of the week.

Cooler this morning than it was yesterday morning.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Those mostly sunny forecasts from last night and this morning were a bit off today,

it's not bad, it did clear out for awhile late yesterday (after 4 pm here).  I wouldn't say it's mostly cloudy, maybe like 30 percent clouds lol

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The models are way too aggressive with the sea breeze, in all my experience here, this does not happen, especially in late July, very similar to how certain models show zero snow on Long Island while it's 2 feet at Newark lol.  Just going by local climatology, I'm sure we'll make it to at least the low 90s here before any sea breeze kicks in.

 

That is a grid resolution issue so don’t take those 80s to 90s lines near the coast literally. Most spots like JFK will probably top out in the 90s before the sea breeze kicks in. Could be 20-30 mph southerly gusts by 2-5 pm.

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The models are way too aggressive with the sea breeze, in all my experience here, this does not happen, especially in late July, very similar to how certain models show zero snow on Long Island while it's 2 feet at Newark lol.  Just going by local climatology, I'm sure we'll make it to at least the low 90s here before any sea breeze kicks in.

 

North of the LIE probably gets to 95 before the seabreeze unless it’s like 20-30mph and all day. South near where you probably gets over 90 but it’s more dependent on when the seabreeze takes over, and with water temps well in the 70s it won’t bring much relief only more humidity. 

[wdrag]

No threads yet on the following:

Fairly widespread SVR late Fri.  Spot 5" totals 18z Fri-06z Mon, inclusive of several short duration FF events, primarily Sunday. This may include embedded iso svr.  Last chance for 100F this year Newark-NYC seems like this Friday but above normal mean of 90+ occurrences at hand for KEWR as 90+ reoccurs Saturday and Tuesday July 29.

Tuesday: nw flow svr event. 

August: seasonable variability again as per July with a cooler than normal first week, then seemingly wetter and warmer than normal last 3 weeks of Aug as the w Atlantic ridge builds in response to the strong 5H heat ridge near the Rockies, possibly edging west toward the end of the month.  Support from 00z/22 GEFS qpf through 700+ hours as seen on Pivotal and spot check of ECMWF INT and the July 17 CPC 1 month outlook.  This suggests to me probably no more 100 at KEWR but plenty of 90-95 after the first week of August. 

Will check in tomorrow

[SACRUS]

 

 

75 / 65 sunny.   Still an Easterly wind, but warmer than Tuesday - mid - upper 80s in the hotter spots.  We'll dance around the rim / periphery of the ridge Thu - Tue next week with some storms coming through in between.  Thu - 90s / Fri mid - upper 90s, Sat could see clouds limit the heat and then storms by the evening although those could be aimed further south.  Sunday looks like the wettest / cloudiest before heat bubbles back up Mon / Tue next week with more stronger heat possible.  Ridge backs west by later next week with trough into the northeast.   Looks overall warmer into the 30th before near normal to close the month.   Looks hotter after the 3 towards the 5th.  

 

7/23 : Warmer still near normal
7/24 - 7/26 : Hot - Friday hottest / humid storms Fri night / Sat PM
7/27:   Storms / cloudy potential hvy rain w/ storms
7/28 - 7/30 :   Hotter - Tue hottest
7/31 - 8/3 :   Cooler overall near normal 
8/4 :   Warmer - Hot - Humid wet overall

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Cooler this morning than it was yesterday morning.

It was cool enough yesterday for JFK to break the  8th longest 70° minimum streak at 16 days.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	29	1980-07-16 through 1980-08-13
2	24	2013-07-01 through 2013-07-24
-	24	1995-07-13 through 1995-08-05
3	21	2010-07-05 through 2010-07-25
-	21	1988-07-28 through 1988-08-17
4	20	2023-07-03 through 2023-07-22
5	19	2020-07-18 through 2020-08-05
6	18	1999-07-17 through 1999-08-03
7	17	1984-08-01 through 1984-08-17
8	16	2025-07-06 through 2025-07-21
-	16	2003-08-01 through 2003-08-16
9	15	1979-07-23 through 1979-08-06
10	14	2024-07-05 through 2024-07-18
-	14	2022-07-13 through 2022-07-26
-	14	2016-08-08 through 2016-08-21

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was cool enough yesterday for JFK to break the  8th longest 70° minimum streak at 16 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	29	1980-07-16 through 1980-08-13
2	24	2013-07-01 through 2013-07-24
-	24	1995-07-13 through 1995-08-05
3	21	2010-07-05 through 2010-07-25
-	21	1988-07-28 through 1988-08-17
4	20	2023-07-03 through 2023-07-22
5	19	2020-07-18 through 2020-08-05
6	18	1999-07-17 through 1999-08-03
7	17	1984-08-01 through 1984-08-17
8	16	2025-07-06 through 2025-07-21
-	16	2003-08-01 through 2003-08-16
9	15	1979-07-23 through 1979-08-06
10	14	2024-07-05 through 2024-07-18
-	14	2022-07-13 through 2022-07-26
-	14	2016-08-08 through 2016-08-21

What was the low at JFK yesterday and today, Chris? Here we made it to 66 this morning while it was 67 yesterday morning.

 

[SACRUS]

 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the low at JFK yesterday and today, Chris? Here we made it to 66 this morning while it was 67 yesterday morning.

 

68 yesterday and 66 today so far at JFK

[FPizz]

60 even this morning.

[Brian5671]

Today looks pleasant as well-a bit warmer.   Looks like the big heat is really only 2 days now.  

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Today looks pleasant as well-a bit warmer.   Looks like the big heat is really only 2 days now.  

Yes but unfortunately rainy Sunday.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011)
NYC: 100 (2011)
LGA: 100 (1955)
JFK: 102 (2011)
New Brnswck: 105 (2011)

Lows:

EWR: 55 (1939)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 59 (1992)
JFK: 59 (1992)
New Brnswck: 51 (1931)


Historical:

 

1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum)

1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations.  Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned.  Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description."  The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum.

1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: Severe thunderstorms affected parts of northern and central Illinois. In Peoria, winds gusting to 85 mph knocked over trees. Two tornadoes affected Fulton County. The first passed through mainly rural areas. The second tornado caused major damage in Canton, where 127 businesses and 100 homes were destroyed. 300 other homes and 100 trailers were damaged; total damages were around $20 million dollars. Two people were killed as the tornado moved through a mobile home park. Power lines were downed during the storm; some areas were without power until the 28th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Intense thunderstorms dumped copious amounts of rainfall over the western parts of Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts were quite impressive, including reports of up to 7 inches just north of Arapaho, in Custer County. Four inches of rain fell in just one hour east of Arapaho and two inches of rain fell in only 30 minutes in Clinton. Many creeks and rivers were quickly forced out of their banks by the heavy rainfall. Floods covered the Arapaho-Weatherford Road with as much as 4 feet of water. More than 5 inches of rain fell in the Taloga area of Dewey County, causing Highway 183 to be inundated by one to two feet of flood water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Tropical Storm Bob moved across south Florida from Ft. Myers to just north of Palm Beach. The storm then turned north and moved northeast of Florida. The storm did minor damage to roofs and downed some trees, mainly on Florida's west coast. Rainfall amounts ranged up to 13 inches at Naples. Several beaches suffered erosion from Port Charlotte to Marco Island. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: At Dodge City, KS thunderstorm winds to 100 mph caused extensive damage to fences. One filling station canopy was downed and it landed on two occupied vehicles but there were no injuries. One roof was taken off a house with debris scattered several hundred yards. A large storage shed was heavily damaged with two motor homes inside receiving extensive damage. Debris was carried one quarter of a mile. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1998: Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2003: Boise, Idaho: With a reading of 107°F, a new record was set for the number of consecutive days with temperatures above 100°F. July 23 marks the 9th consecutive day. (Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

2006: This was the peak of an intense July heat wave that affected much of California and the NW United States thanks to an intense upper level heat ridge. Fresno, CA was the hottest since 7/27/1933. An all-time record high minimum was set with 90°. In Lemoore, 10,000 customers lost power for up to four hours. In all, 46 deaths were reported with 18 injuries. Eugene, OR tied their July record with 105°. Other daily record highs included: Phoenix, AZ: 114°, Redding, CA: 114°, Sacramento, CA: 111°, Lewiston, ID: 109°, Medford, OR: 107°, Spokane, WA: 102 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Rhode Island: A waterspout forms at about 4 pm just off Rumstick Point near Barrington then moves onto land as a tornado in Warren before moving into the Ocean Grove section of Swansea, Massachusetts. The tornado's path is estimated as 4.2 miles long and 40 yards wide. No injuries are reported, but damage to trees, power lines and houses is reported.(Ref. WxDoctor)

2010: After a severe thunderstorm, a Vivian South Dakota resident, Les Scott, found a hailstone with a diameter of 8.0 inches and its weight was 1.9375 pounds (1 pound, 15 ounces) with a circumference of 18.62 inches. These measurements displace the previous hailstone record for weight, previously 1.67 pounds for a stone in Coffeyville, Kan., in 1970. They also surpass the record for the greatest diameter, which was 7 inches for a hailstone found in Aurora, Neb., in 2003. But the Aurora hailstone still holds the record for the greatest circumference of 18.75 inches. (Thus the Aurora hailstone was more spherical than the Vivian hailstone.)(Ref. NOAA News Release July 30, 2010 - Record Hailstone )(Ref. See a Picture of the World's Largest Hailstone)(Ref. Info. on the Storm Yielding Hailstone(Ref. See a video About the World's Largest Hailstone)

2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O'Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes but unfortunately rainy Sunday.

 

Not buying a washout yet-only the Euro really shows that right now