July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[steve392]

Storms starting to fire up all around me in Paramus, NJ

[ForestHillWx]

Pouring in Bridgewater/Pluckemin near the office. 

[SACRUS]

 

Invest now

[SACRUS]

 

 

[steve392]

35 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Guaranteed to fall apart by the time it reaches Bergen County or split, go around bergen and re-intensify over bronx and westchester.  

[steve392]

Things getting very interesting on radar!  Can the Bergen Bubble finally get burst!

[Snowlover11]

Approaching 3” of rain.

[Wannabehippie]

Got some thunder, brief downpour in Riverdale, NJ.

 

[steve392]

Finally raining in Paramus.  Really thought it was going to go right over us without raining.  

[donsutherland1]

Showers and heavy thunderstorms will affect parts of the region into early tomorrow morning. North and west of New York City will likely see a general 1"-3" of rain with locally higher amounts exceeding 4".

Already, Scranton has picked up 2.32" of rain through 4:41 pm today. That breaks the daily record of 1.69" from 2017. That is also the 20th highest daily rainfall for any day in July. 

Heavy rain was also falling at Newark with 0.43" over the past 41 minutes.

It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through Thursday or Friday. The heat will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +1.05 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.077 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal). 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone concerned about flooding here. These are slow moving thunderstorms, I mean this could be a disaster in some areas, maybe i'm panicking!

[Sundog]

Beautiful day at the shore right now:

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone concerned about flooding here. These are slow moving thunderstorms, I mean this could be a disaster in some areas, maybe i'm panicking!

That's why we have a separate thread. Very concerned

[Sundog]

Ironic with all the rain inland

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone concerned about flooding here. These are slow moving thunderstorms, I mean this could be a disaster in some areas, maybe i'm panicking!

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

73F at Williamsport, PA, and 72F at Scranton, PA, also matched record high minima.

If it wasn't for the late June heat this summer would be extremely boring and mediocre.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Ironic with all the rain inland

LGA seems to have gotten quite a bit of rain too.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

 

The extreme heat was confined to two days in June, the rest of the summer has been mediocre.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Its been record hot????

for two days.....

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The minimums have set a new record across the area at spots like SMQ for the first half of summer. The average maximum was 7th warmest. But since last year featured the warmest average high, 7th place this year feels cooler by comparison. So it’s all relative to what we are getting acclimated to.

Warmest Minimum Temperatures through 7-13Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025-07-13	62.6	0
2	2013-07-13	62.2	0
3	2024-07-13	61.1	0
4	2021-07-13	60.8	0
-	2005-07-13	60.8	0
5	2006-07-13	60.7	0
6	2010-07-13	60.1	0
7	2020-07-13	59.9	0
-	2014-07-13	59.9	0
8	2015-07-13	59.8	17
9	2008-07-13	59.7	0
10	2011-07-13	59.5	0
-	1999-07-13	59.5	8

 

Warmest Average Maximum Temperature Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-07-13	87.7	0
2	2010-07-13	86.3	0
3	2020-07-13	85.5	0
4	1999-07-13	85.3	8
5	2008-07-13	85.0	0
6	2021-07-13	84.7	0
-	2012-07-13	84.7	0
7	2025-07-13	84.4	0
8	2016-07-13	84.2	0
-	2005-07-13	84.2	0
9	2022-07-13	84.0	0
10	2014-07-13	83.9	0
-	2011-07-13	83.9	0

Last year wasn't that hot either, Chris.

Our last really hot summer was in 2013, I don't put much stock in averages.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Sundog said:

@Brian5671, more rain, higher dewpoints and minimums, more clouds, overall higher temperatures AND @FPizz can't generate as much electricity?

Sounds like a nightmare bro, that last point about his solar panels not producing dividends for @FPizzkeeps me up at night. 

yeah more water vapor in the atmosphere is actually worse than more co2 in the atmosphere

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Higher humidity equals more clouds.

 

and not the higher highs we saw in 2010-2013, which were much easier to endure than the higher humidity type of lower end heat we get now

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The extreme heat was confined to two days in June, the rest of the summer has been mediocre.

I think we could turn that around a bit either later in July or in August. More likely in August.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Anecdotally, the atmosphere seems thicker and more "vaporous" than it did decades ago. More Venusian might be a good way to describe it. In my hometown, the normal July minima used to be in the 50s, but now reaching the 50s there is like a big achievement in the month of July. Normal lows from decades ago are now seen as a nice break from the heat. Very weird to see in the absence of any UHI increases. All very bizarre.

Yes the thicker more polluted air is why the highs are more muted except for those 2 days in late June

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think we could turn that around a bit either later in July or in August. More likely in August.

WX/PT

That would be a nice change, hopefully it's a drier heat

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

Ironic with all the rain inland

the heavy rain has made it to the south shore

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That would be a nice change, hopefully it's a drier heat

Eventually I think there's a chance of that. More likely later on.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah more water vapor in the atmosphere is actually worse than more co2 in the atmosphere

 

The warming atmosphere from excess CO2 holds more moisture for these extreme rainfall events.

https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea

Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming 

In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). 

Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming.   

 

 

Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. 

 

 

“Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.”   

The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are 

 

[wdrag]

You may want to monitor a potential marine heatwave in the north Pacific and discussion of its subsequent winter impact in the northeast USA. Long ranging is fraught with poor performance but the researchers and pattern relators attempt to Improve

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

 

New Brnswck: 91
PHL: 91
TEB: 90
LGA: 89
TTN: 89
EWR: 88
JFK: 87
ACY: 87
BLM: 86
NYC: 85
ISP: 84