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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

IMG_4073.thumb.jpeg.b20c7399c66d6f47e404e877f2e5890e.jpeg

 

 
73F at Williamsport, PA, and 72F at Scranton, PA, also matched record high minima.
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

IMG_4073.thumb.jpeg.b20c7399c66d6f47e404e877f2e5890e.jpeg

 

Anecdotally, the atmosphere seems thicker and more "vaporous" than it did decades ago. More Venusian might be a good way to describe it. In my hometown, the normal July minima used to be in the 50s, but now reaching the 50s there is like a big achievement in the month of July. Normal lows from decades ago are now seen as a nice break from the heat. Very weird to see in the absence of any UHI increases. All very bizarre.

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45 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW, is the cloud departure for the Pacific Northwest tied to the ongoing SST anomalies in the western Pacific? Thank you, As always …

 

We started seeing these very strong ridges over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast in recent years. A general expansion of the subtropical ridges leading record SSTs and land temperatures under these near to record 500mb ridges. So the WPAC has seen one of the more dramatic ridge expansions leading record SSTs in recent years. 

IMG_4080.thumb.jpeg.1c5cf1d596e30547a2a4428848fa5787.jpeg

 

 

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33 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Anecdotally, the atmosphere seems thicker and more "vaporous" than it did decades ago. More Venusian might be a good way to describe it. In my hometown, the normal July minima used to be in the 50s, but now reaching the 50s there is like a big achievement in the month of July. Normal lows from decades ago are now seen as a nice break from the heat. Very weird to see in the absence of any UHI increases. All very bizarre.

Just too much water in the atmosphere. Many of our problems would go away if we just had less water vapor lying around.

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Showers and heavy thunderstorms will affect parts of the region into early tomorrow morning. North and west of New York City will likely see a general 1"-3" of rain with locally higher amounts exceeding 4".

Already, Scranton has picked up 2.32" of rain through 4:41 pm today. That breaks the daily record of 1.69" from 2017. That is also the 20th highest daily rainfall for any day in July. 

Heavy rain was also falling at Newark with 0.43" over the past 41 minutes.

It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through Thursday or Friday. The heat will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +1.05 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.077 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal). 

 

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