July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[doncat]

Been a bit dry at this station since June 1st with 2.38" of rain...that's about 4" below normal for that short span.

[forkyfork]

45 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I volunteer you to get China on board...

their per capita emissions are lower than ours

[bluewave]

Strong WAR pattern setting up over the next week to 10 days. So plenty of onshore flow and cooling afternoon sea breezes east of NYC at the beaches. This will push the sea breeze front west of NYC keeping the strongest heat there. It will also keep the best convection west of Long Island. So plenty of lawn watering on tap to prevent the brown lawn syndrome which has become common on Long Island with these dry July patterns. 
 

July 14-21 forecast 

 

[winterwx21]

85 with a dewpoint of 70 here. It's humid out there, but nothing like the tropical steambath that we had when dewpoints were in the high 70s. 

Looks like very little chance of rain this weekend. Most of the advertised convection for this week didn't really pan out, and we got only about a third of an inch of rain for the entire week here. I'll be watering the vegetable garden today. Hopefully we'll see something on Monday. 

[Sundog]

17 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

their per capita emissions are lower than ours

Earth doesn't care forky.

All it knows is that 30% of global emissions comes from there so you NEED them on board. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Soupy 

 

 

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Earth doesn't care forky.

All it knows is that 30% of global emissions comes from there so you NEED them on board. 

they are. if we lived like chinese people you wouldn't have such a hot summer to bitch about

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Sundog said:

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

100% agree, some of those African and Asian countries are run by third world thugs and don't give a shit about the environment and are trying to drive local species extinct with their inherent greed.  They should not be allowed to repeat the same mistakes that more advanced nations have made.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I feel like we are getting close to plasma and fusion energy. In the mean time we should be investing in the next generation nuclear fission plants, especially with What are Small Modular Reactors. Lower in cost. Can be built off site in a factory/assembly line type setting, lowering costs greatly.
If the US, China, and India get on board with SMRs, and get them built out to replace fossil fuel plants, we can take a big chunk out of what is causing CO2 levels to rise.

 

 

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/iter-nuclear-fusion-boron-plasma
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs

Thorium reactors have a bright future too.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

2010-2013 really was our most widespread hottest period, of course the NW has been heating up much faster than we have, especially in the summer.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Sundog said:

I think many times people in the US have a level of self centered-ness. 

The USA is only responsible for like 10% of global emissions. 

The US can be completely greenhouse gas neutral tomorrow and the problem would have barely changed. 

A billion people still go to the bathroom in the fields, a few billion more don't have clean water to drink. They're not interested in nor care about climate change.

This is exactly why removing water vapor from the atmosphere (and thus removing a powerful greenhouse gas) and converting it to drinking water will be much more popular.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

Why is Europe heating up so much more quickly? Is it the same reason the NW has been? Having an ocean to your west makes warming more extreme? That seems counterintuitive to me.

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

This is exactly why removing water vapor from the atmosphere (and thus removing a powerful greenhouse gas) and converting it to drinking water will be much more popular.

 

that's called rain

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i thought the amoc was slowing down  if that continues and it stops would that not mean a colder europe in the future?

Yes but that's mainly for the UK and Nordic nations.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

societal breakdown is the only way climate change will be stopped

Yep and wars, which will proliferate.

societal breakdown, mass migrations and wars, all of which we're starting to see now.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

that's called rain

It's not enough, we also have a higher threshold for rain now, as the temperature rises, the saturation point rises too, thus the atmosphere can hold much more moisture before rain falls. I'm talking about removing water vapor before it reaches that threshold so we can have a less humid climate and convert all that excess water vapor into drinking water.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they are. if we lived like chinese people you wouldn't have such a hot summer to bitch about

Isn't China building new coal reactors? I thought they said they planned on being net zero by 2060?

 

[Sundog]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they are. if we lived like chinese people you wouldn't have such a hot summer to bitch about

Interesting. You want people to live at a lower standard than we currently have here apparently because that's one solution to climate change? But we also want as many people to come to the US and therefore adopt that standard of living which would result in an increase of emissions?

Can't have it both ways. 

Is there a way for people to live at the standard of the average American and fix climate change? Because I'll tell you right now every single Chinese person (and everyone else around the world) wants to live at that standard and you can't do anything about it. 

Telling them they're noble because they live like peasants isn't going to convince them to forego their aspirations to live at the average standard of an American. 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strong WAR pattern setting up over the next week to 10 days. So plenty of onshore flow and cooling afternoon sea breezes east of NYC at the beaches. This will push the sea breeze front west of NYC keeping the strongest heat there. It will also keep the best convection west of Long Island. So plenty of lawn watering on tap to prevent the brown lawn syndrome which has become common on Long Island with these dry July patterns. 
 

July 14-21 forecast 

 

I thought the strongest WAR happens when there isn't a sea breeze? Take 1993 for example.  The WAR was so strong, it came inland over NC and gave us a westerly flow for most of the summer.

In recent summers, the WAR has been less strong, allowing more fronts to get hung up here and being further offshore thus causing the onshore flow.  In the 90s those fronts would be hung up over the Midwest instead of here, that's why you got the Great Flood of 1993, the WAR was so strong it kept the fronts a thousand miles away from us and enveloped us in a westerly flow all summer long

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Interesting. You want people to live at a lower standard than we currently have here apparently because that's one solution to climate change? But we also want as many people to come to the US and therefore adopt that standard of living which would result in an increase of emissions?

Can't have it both ways. 

Is there a way for people to live at the standard of the average American and fix climate change? Because I'll tell you right now every single Chinese person (and everyone else around the world) wants to live at that standard and you can't do anything about it. 

Telling them they're noble because they live like peasants isn't going to convince them to forego their aspirations to live at the average standard of an American. 

I don't think the Chinese live like peasants but I also don't think the standard of living in the US is as high as you think it is either.  There are countries in Europe that have higher standards (the Nordic nations, for example.)

 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't China building new coal reactors? I thought they said they planned on being net zero by 2060?

 

It's ok, China is allowed to build coal power plants at a furious pace because they emit lower emissions per capita. 

They also industrialized later than us so even though all modern clean energy technology exists for all the people of the world, they're allowed to build a million coal plants for the next 50 years. 

The Earth understands. 

 

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Interesting. You want people to live at a lower standard than we currently have here apparently because that's one solution to climate change? But we also want as many people to come to the US and therefore adopt that standard of living which would result in an increase of emissions?

Can't have it both ways. 

Is there a way for people to live at the standard of the average American and fix climate change? Because I'll tell you right now every single Chinese person (and everyone else around the world) wants to live at that standard and you can't do anything about it. 

Telling them they're noble because they live like peasants isn't going to convince them to forego their aspirations to live at the average standard of an American. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

It's ok, China is allowed to build coal power plants at a furious pace because they emit lower emissions per capita. 

They also industrialized later than us so even though all modern clean energy technology exists for all the people of the world, they're allowed to build a million coal plants for the next 50 years. 

The Earth understands. 

 

can't wait to see you guys complain when next winter is warm and snowless yet again

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't think the Chinese live like peasants but I also don't think the standard of living in the US is as high as you think it is either.  There are countries in Europe that have higher standards (the Nordic nations, for example.)

 

AI says over 300 million Chinese don't have indoor plumbing. 

They want their government to build as many coal plants as possible, climate change is very low on their priority list. 

I have to constantly remind people that climate change only becomes an issue for people only after all their basic needs have been met, and because the West has basically done that, you see the most activitism for climate change from Western countries. 

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Why are they even building coal plants then? This isn't 1960.  

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:


Highs:

EWR: 99 (2011)
NYC: 99 (1966)
LGA: 98 (1966)
JFK: 98 (2011)
New Brnswck: 98 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1945)
NYC: 57 (1926)
LGA: 59 (1940)
JFK: 58 (1973)
New Brnswck: 48 (1945)



Historical:

 

 

1842: One of the most severe hurricanes in the history of the coastal Carolinas struck the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the evening of the 12th into the 13th. The entire village of Portsmouth was destroyed except for one building. The storm apparently passed inland near Norfolk, VA and caused massive flooding from Virginia into Pennsylvania. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936: The hottest three-day periods up to this time in United States history occurred beginning on this date as the average temperature was 88.5°; the second warmest such period occurred three days earlier. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1951 - The Kaw River flood occurred. The month of June that year was the wettest of record for the state of Kansas, and during the four days preceding the flood much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri received more than ten inches of rain. Flooding in the Midwest claimed 41 lives, left 200 thousand persons homeless, and caused a billion dollars property damage. Kansas City was hardest hit. The central industrial district sustained 870 million dollars property damage. (The Kansas City Weather Alamnac)

 

1974: Philmont Scout Ranch, Colfax County, N. Mex.-- Lightning struck a group of scouts and leaders who had gathered beneath a nylon dining canopy to avoid heavy rain; killed one, injured six. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1975: A nearly stationary front north to south over Pennsylvania caused rain and thunderstorms over the region for 3 days beginning on this date. Amounts of two inches plus in 24 hours and 4 inches plus for the 3 days were common. In Pennsylvania, Perkasie reported 7 inches, Lansdale: 5.11 inches, West Chester: 6.94 inches through the 13th; and Schwenksville reported 6 inches in 30 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: First 90° day of year was very late in the year. This was the latest 90°F day ever recorded in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1980 - Lightning struck a large broiler house in Branford, FL, and the ensuing fire broiled 11,000 nearly ready broilers. Firemen were able to save a few thousand chickens, however. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cool air invaded the High Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Sheridan, WY, with a reading of 37 degrees. Thunderstorms developing along the cold front in the central U.S. produced 6.5 inches of rain at Fort Dodge, IA, and 2.5 inches in one hour at St. Joseph MO. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Dakotas, including baseball size hail at Aberdeen, SD, and softball size hail near Fullerton, ND. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in Arkansas and northeastern Texas, with 6.59 inches reported at Mesquite, TX, in just an hour and fifteen minutes. Garland, TX, reported water up to the tops of cars following a torrential downpour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms over eastern Kansas deluged McFarland with more than six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms in Wyoming produced up to eighteen inches of dime size hail near Rock Springs, along with torrential rains, and a three foot high wall of mud and water swept into the town causing more than 1.5 million dollars damage. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Arkansas, deluging Dardanelle, AR, with 3.50 inches of rain in less than twenty minutes. About seventy cows were killed when lightning struck a tree in Jones County, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993: Thunderstorms dumped up to 4 inches of rain in 30 minutes in the Pierre and Ft. Pierre areas in South Dakota. As golf ball size hail also pounded the area the runoff from the heavy rains piled the hail into drifts five feet high. On the same day a severe thunderstorm dumped large hail and heavy rains in the Lantry area in Dewey County. The water which could not be absorbed by already saturated ground ran four to five feet deep through some buildings in town.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1995: An intense heat wave affected much of the Midwest for a 4-day period beginning on this day. The worst effects of the heat were noted in the Chicago metropolitan area, where 583 people died from the heat. Temperatures across the region reached as high as 104 degrees, overnight lows on falling to the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s created heat indexes peaking at 125 degrees. Electricity and water usage reached record levels, causing periodic outages.



1996: Hurricane Bertha makes landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC with maximum winds of 105 mph, but the storm surge dealt the most devastation. The U.S. Virgin Islands, along with North Carolina, were declared federal disaster areas. Surveys indicate that Bertha damaged almost 2,500 homes on St. Thomas and St. John. For many, it was the second hit in the ten months since Hurricane Marilyn devastated the same area. The primary effects in North Carolina were to the coastal counties and included storm surge flooding and beach erosion, roof damage, piers washed away, fallen trees and damage to crops. Over 5,000 homes were damaged, mostly from storm surge. Storm total rainfall amounts ranged from 5 to 8 inches along a coastal strip from South Carolina to Maine. Overall, as many as 12 deaths resulted with 8 in the U.S. and territories.

 

1997: Lightning can hit the ground 15+ miles from the thunderstorm. Two golfers at a Tampa Florida course were hit by the first observed lightning bolt of a distant thunderstorm; it came from the storms cirrus anvil. The sun was shining at their location and one of the two men was killed.  (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

1998: The temperature at the Dallas/Ft. Worth Airport in Texas rose to 100°. Dallas saw the temperature go to 100° or hotter on 56 days during the summer of 1998. There were 39 nights that the mercury never dropped below 80°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Hail up to the size of softballs fell in and around Onaka, SD damaging vehicles, farm equipment, and homes. High winds along with hail up to the size of baseballs caused some structural, vehicle, crop, and tree damage in and around Astoria, SD and Toronto, SD.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: July 12th to July 20th Reno, Nevada: A record string of days with temperatures above 101°F: nine straight days. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2011: High humidity levels and dew points were higher during the summer 2011 compared with 2010, resulting in unusually warm nighttime temperatures. A low temperature of 81 at Richmond on July 12th was the first ever daily low of 80 and above. A steady southwest wind overnight also contributed to this event. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A New Record High Minimum Temperature)

2022: On the evening of July 12 between 8PM and 10 PM around 4.50 inches of rain fell in the Buchanan County, Virginia area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

 

1995: An intense heat wave affected much of the Midwest for a 4-day period beginning on this day. The worst effects of the heat were noted in the Chicago metropolitan area, where 583 people died from the heat. Temperatures across the region reached as high as 104 degrees, overnight lows on falling to the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s created heat indexes peaking at 125 degrees. Electricity and water usage reached record levels, causing periodic outages.

This was the peak of the heat in 1995, centered on Chicago (similar to how the peak of the heat in 1980 was centered on St Louis, with similar lethal results.)

 

The high in Chicago was 106 on back to back days, Tony??

Highs:

EWR: 99 (2011)
NYC: 99 (1966)
LGA: 98 (1966)
JFK: 98 (2011)

I didn't know NYC had a 99 day in 1966, did they have 5 99+ days in 1966, matching the total from 1949? Of course the heat in 1966 was more intense since 4 of those days were 100+

 

2011: High humidity levels and dew points were higher during the summer 2011 compared with 2010, resulting in unusually warm nighttime temperatures. A low temperature of 81 at Richmond on July 12th was the first ever daily low of 80 and above. A steady southwest wind overnight also contributed to this event. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A New Record High Minimum Temperature)
 

I also didn't remember this early bout of heat in 2011, I thought the heat was centered around July 22-23 when we went way above 100 all around the region??

1996: Hurricane Bertha makes landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC with maximum winds of 105 mph, but the storm surge dealt the most devastation. The U.S. Virgin Islands, along with North Carolina, were declared federal disaster areas. Surveys indicate that Bertha damaged almost 2,500 homes on St. Thomas and St. John. For many, it was the second hit in the ten months since Hurricane Marilyn devastated the same area. The primary effects in North Carolina were to the coastal counties and included storm surge flooding and beach erosion, roof damage, piers washed away, fallen trees and damage to crops. Over 5,000 homes were damaged, mostly from storm surge. Storm total rainfall amounts ranged from 5 to 8 inches along a coastal strip from South Carolina to Maine. Overall, as many as 12 deaths resulted with 8 in the U.S. and territories.

I remember this hurricane well, it was a Cat 3 just before landfall and tracked up the coast passing right over JFK! It was a weekend and I was in the Poconos, where we had 7 inches of rain!  I didn't see rain like this again until Floyd came up here in 1999, ending a summer drought with 10 inches of rain in Eastern PA and NJ.

 

1936: The hottest three-day periods up to this time in United States history occurred beginning on this date as the average temperature was 88.5°; the second warmest such period occurred three days earlier. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

simply wild how hot this summer truly was and widespread conus heat.

 

1842: One of the most severe hurricanes in the history of the coastal Carolinas struck the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the evening of the 12th into the 13th. The entire village of Portsmouth was destroyed except for one building. The storm apparently passed inland near Norfolk, VA and caused massive flooding from Virginia into Pennsylvania. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

Tony, do you have any info on how strong this early TC was and on its track, I assume it passed inland west of us?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

The 1.5C scenario is a fictitious goal and has already been surpassed, we'll be lucky to cap it under 3.0C

[Sundog]

Basically zero coal plants have been built in Western countries over the last 20 years. 

China has built between 200 and 300 coal plants in the last 10 years 

Lol come on guys 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

the markets should be driving it right now, but we need to get rid of subsidies first.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The reason the 1995 summer was so humid with the nearly 130° heat index around 7-15 was due to corn sweat pooling under the inversion and getting transported to the East Coast.

Yes, one of many reasons we need to end corn and soybean subsidies too.

All that humidity killed almost 600 people in Chicago that summer.