June 2025 General Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

23 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking at the Michigan roundup from yesterday, a number of locations saw temperatures climb at or above 90F, including as hot as 92F at Auburn 2NE. Unfortunately, the urban chill island of Detroit could only muster a disappointing 86F. Going to be another one of those summers, where @michsnowfreak is bragging about the lack of 90F heat, whilst complaining about urban heat islands, all the while rural areas where nobody lives rack up plenty of 90s. In order for Detroit to record some readings in the 90s, it looks like some rural parts of the State will need to reach well into the mid 90s, even upper 90s. Maybe a tall ask.

Its going to be another one of those summers (and falls and winters and springs) where @TheClimateChanger spends hours and hours scouring xmacis and ncdc to find the most random, middle-of-nowhere location that he can plug into his latest cherry picked post.

Its crazy, Ive lived in MI my entire life and I always thought Alpena, Standish, Saginaw etc were hours away from Detroit. But apparently, they are rural suburbs of Detroit . The actual metro-Detroit suburb temps for that day were all in the same range, 84, 85, 86, 87. The warmest temp found was 88F at White Lake, 40+ miles NW of DTW. I just want accurate readings- readings in line with nearby areas. But I guess you want the official station to come in 2-4F warmer than everywhere else.

[michsnowfreak]

Picked up a total of 1.20" rain yesterday, 0.58" of which came from the evening shelf cloud thunderstorm. Definitely the best thunderstorm we have had in a long while. I saw some incredible pics from more open areas, but i was at home so wasn't able to see the cloud expand over an open area in all its glory.

 

[michsnowfreak]

63, cloudy and a NW breeze at 1pm. Hard to believe whats lurking.

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Picked up a total of 1.20" rain yesterday, 0.58" of which came from the evening shelf cloud thunderstorm. Definitely the best thunderstorm we have had in a long while. I saw some incredible pics from more open areas, but i was at home so wasn't able to see the cloud expand over an open area in all its glory.

 

Here's my shelf cloud when it was overhead pic from yesterday 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its going to be another one of those summers (and falls and winters and springs) where @TheClimateChanger spends hours and hours scouring xmacis and ncdc to find the most random, middle-of-nowhere location that he can plug into his latest cherry picked post.

Its crazy, Ive lived in MI my entire life and I always thought Alpena, Standish, Saginaw etc were hours away from Detroit. But apparently, they are rural suburbs of Detroit . The actual metro-Detroit suburb temps for that day were all in the same range, 84, 85, 86, 87. The warmest temp found was 88F at White Lake, 40+ miles NW of DTW. I just want accurate readings- readings in line with nearby areas. But I guess you want the official station to come in 2-4F warmer than everywhere else.

You should be very pleased with my Michigan round-up then! You are the one who has thrown out comparisons to White Lake, Flint, Saginaw, and Ann Arbor in the past - all of which were warmer than DTW in my summary, some by several degrees.

[A-L-E-K]

Lake breeze percolating s tier day lakeside 

[IWXwx]

5 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Good thing I just bought new tires yesterday. I was trying to get in front of a small cell in front of the main line of storms that was rotating and had a nice wall cloud on it when the gust front from the line caught me from behind.  I mean wind went from 0 to 70 or 80 in a flash. This damn tree came down about 50 yards in front of me as I was going about 45mph. I think my old 10 year old tires would've probably killed me lol. Lots of really big trees, limbs, fences, sheds some roofs and barns blown down between Lapel and Muncie. Really strong microburst downdraft through that area as the trees weren't "blowing" sideways it was the wind blowing the trees actually down towards the ground. You could feel the wind coming down like a hammer. Temp went from 85 to 66 in about 90 seconds. One of the weirdest things I've ever been caught in.  I drove home and put my underwear in the washer 

Got up this morning and we got another 3 in and its still raining. This area is flooded pretty bad.

 

Wow, you're really getting killed by the rain. We had 1.31" yesterday/this morning.  We also had a downburst. Lots of trees and powerlines down in about 1 x 4 mile area. I purposely drove into it as I close to it when I saw it on the velocity scan. A tree came down across the road I was on about a minute after I passed it. Here is part of my dashcam video. The first part is the shelf cloud (sped up slightly) and the last part is driving into it. No audio at first and the last couple minutes is me driving into the abyss, to which the video doesn't do justice. Most of the time, I could only go about 10 MPH.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You should be very pleased with my Michigan round-up then! You are the one who has thrown out comparisons to White Lake, Flint, Saginaw, and Ann Arbor in the past - all of which were warmer than DTW in my summary, some by several degrees.

This is exactly what I and others mean about cherry picking. You are picking one random day where temps were 1-2F warmer at those locations than Detroit. I can assure you it wasnt close to 90F here the other day. Everyone in THIS immediate area maxed at 85 or 86. Detroits annual temp runs about 0.5-1F warmer than Ann Arbor, 2-2.5F warmer than Flint/Saginaw, and 3.5-4F warmer than White Lake. It does not mean there wont be days where DTW is cooler than the others. 

But my point stands. If DTW (or any site really) temps are in line with all other locations in the immediate area, I have no issue. My issue is when one random site runs 2-4F warmer than anyone else nearby with no clear reason it should (ie marine influence would be an example of an exception). Thats why the NWS ensures first order sites are properly maintained and calibrated. Its no secret that you WANT sites to run falsely warm, so when they dont, you resort to posts like this.

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is exactly what I and others mean about cherry picking. You are picking one random day where temps were 1-2F warmer at those locations than Detroit. I can assure you it wasnt close to 90F here the other day. Everyone in THIS immediate area maxed at 85 or 86. Detroits annual temp runs about 0.5-1F warmer than Ann Arbor, 2-2.5F warmer than Flint/Saginaw, and 3.5-4F warmer than White Lake. It does not mean there wont be days where DTW is cooler than the others. 

But my point stands. If DTW (or any site really) temps are in line with all other locations in the immediate area, I have no issue. My issue is when one random site runs 2-4F warmer than anyone else nearby with no clear reason it should (ie marine influence would be an example of an exception). Thats why the NWS ensures first order sites are properly maintained and calibrated. Its no secret that you WANT sites to run falsely warm, so when they dont, you resort to posts like this.

I'm not cherrypicking anything. Just looking to learn more about the DTW urban heat island. Those temperature variances strike me as primarily a function of elevation and latitude. Urban heat island may add a small component. White Lake is several hundred feet higher in elevation and, as you said, 40 miles northwest. FNT and MBS are way to the north, and FNT is also a few hundred feet higher in elevation. Even Ann Arbor gains elevation, although it might be small if along Allen Creek. Of course, if the station is near the creek, it would likely be in a particularly cool microclimate for radiational cooling conditions.

[sbnwx85]

Gnarly looking storm over Porter County.

[hawkeye_wx]

The model trend is to keep much of the ring-of-fire storms to my northwest next week.  There could be a band of several inches of rain up there while southeast Iowa and points east and south get nothing but heat.

[Chicago Storm]

15 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The model trend is to keep much of the ring-of-fire storms to my northwest next week.  There could be a band of several inches of rain up there while southeast Iowa and points east and south get nothing but heat.

we all know that the active corridor always ends up further south than modeled.

[IWXwx]

@Jackstraw, it looks like you might get lucky as that random storm slides by juuuuuussssst a little to your northeast (using my Bob Uecker voice.)

[hawkeye_wx]

15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

we all know that the active corridor always ends up further south than modeled.

Maybe.  Hopefully.  The ridge is pretty strong.

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

@Jackstraw, it looks like you might get lucky as that random storm slides by juuuuuussssst a little to your northeast (using my Bob Uecker voice.)

Here's a pic of it showing a nicely tilted mini updraft mini SUP that shot up to about 50kft with some low hanging fruit lol. It actually spit out some pea size hail, you can see a bit of a "mini hail core" in that pic lol. Had some weak rotation on it. Enough fruit to get some local kids excited out there chasing scud. Some wimpy plains chasing right there lol. Yeah glad it missed us. Hope the ring of fire stays away too next week. My goodness is it gonna get humid around here. Got a feeling the mosquito hatchery is about ready to burst. Still ROFL, Bob Uecker, Ha!! 

 

[IWXwx]

20 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Here's a pic of it showing a nicely tilted mini updraft mini SUP that shot up to about 50kft with some low hanging fruit lol. It actually spit out some pea size hail, you can see a bit of a "mini hail core" in that pic lol. Had some weak rotation on it. Enough fruit to get some local kids excited out there chasing scud. Some wimpy plains chasing right there lol. Yeah glad it missed us. Hope the ring of fire stays away too next week. My goodness is it gonna get humid around here. Got a feeling the mosquito hatchery is about ready to burst. Still ROFL, Bob Uecker, Ha!! 

 

Pretty nice shot of it. I saw that it had a little rotation on the velocity scans. I'm with you on the ROF. Modals showing it staying north, but as has been mentioned here, it usually ends up Coriolising south. If it does stay north, we'll be  in the swamp-ass oven for days on end, so pick your poison.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Topped out at 88 today. 3 days of muggy 90s ahead of us and then hopefully a ring of fire.
 

Sure seems like a lot of areas in this sub have seen more precipitation the past week then Minneapolis has seen for all of 2025. MSP is sitting at 11.03” of precipitation since January 1st.

[Lightning]

After yesterday's heavy rains and tornado sirens for 35mph gusts , today we got some fun tstorms with lots pea to marble+ sized hail and no warnings. 

Rain totals the past 2 days is almost 3". 

[A-L-E-K]

13 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The model trend is to keep much of the ring-of-fire storms to my northwest next week.  There could be a band of several inches of rain up there while southeast Iowa and points east and south get nothing but heat.

looks like a nice fat cell heading your way this morning

[Brian D]

15 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Topped out at 88 today. 3 days of muggy 90s ahead of us and then hopefully a ring of fire.
 

Sure seems like a lot of areas in this sub have seen more precipitation the past week then Minneapolis has seen for all of 2025. MSP is sitting at 11.03” of precipitation since January 1st.

The Northshore awaits you & fam. I get to escape the nasty heat this weekend. TY Lake Superior! (I bet half of the state will be up here LOL)

 

Rough stms possible tonight. 

[hawkeye_wx]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks like a nice fat cell heading your way this morning

All I got was a little bit of light rain.  It took all morning just to get 0.12".  As often happens with these summer morning storm events, it was fed from the backside by a low level jet.  The nose of the jet remained to my west, so the storms continued to back-build, and any storm that tried to move east of that LLJ nose quickly vanished.  Only a couple counties west and northwest widespread 1-3" fell.

The year without thunderstorms continues, as if winter wasn't boring enough.  Maybe next week's ring of fire pattern can finally produce something.

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

All I got was a little bit of light rain.  It took all morning just to get 0.12".  As often happens with these summer morning storm events, it was fed from the backside by a low level jet.  The nose of the jet remained to my west, so the storms continued to back-build, and any storm that tried to move east of that LLJ nose quickly vanished.  Only a couple counties west and northwest widespread 1-3" fell.

The year without thunderstorms continues, as if winter wasn't boring enough.  Maybe next week's ring of fire pattern can finally produce something.

These complexes can be very frustrating!!  Countless times I have watched radar thinking there is no way this is going to miss and 10-15 minutes later,  it is like some secret power has blocked your backyard from getting anything fun!!  

Joe Lundberg from Accuweather kindly spent some time educating me (like 20 years ago back when JB and Ken Reeves were all there) about LLJ dynamics and thermal and energy impacts on these complexes.  It really helped me and I fully understand what is happening but still amazes me when a massive red blob 15 miles or so on radar can be heading right for you and you get nothing!!

[michsnowfreak]

23 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm not cherrypicking anything. Just looking to learn more about the DTW urban heat island. Those temperature variances strike me as primarily a function of elevation and latitude. Urban heat island may add a small component. White Lake is several hundred feet higher in elevation and, as you said, 40 miles northwest. FNT and MBS are way to the north, and FNT is also a few hundred feet higher in elevation. Even Ann Arbor gains elevation, although it might be small if along Allen Creek. Of course, if the station is near the creek, it would likely be in a particularly cool microclimate for radiational cooling conditions.

DTW is located in Romulus, MI. Areas near the airport range from suburban to even semi-rural. Though I currently work from home, from 2015-2021 I had a job where my commute involved passing the airport daily. I became WELL versed in how the temps work (I would pass just south of the airport and then get on the freeway which would drive right past then north of the airport). Temps just south of the airport are an Ann Arbor like bowl of extreme radiational cooling. Talking a quarter mile south of where the airport ends (intersection of Eureka & Middlebelt Rd). I saw this on a daily basis, often passing by at 730am, and the most extreme example I saw was on Feb 20, 2015 when my car read -22F at this spot but the official DTW low was -13F. For whatever reason, the temp always reads lower on the south side of the airport than the north side (where ASOS is). The temps at DTW would consistently come up on the high end of what was reported nearby, but certainly within range.

UHI is certainly a factor in big cities, but I feel its more of an "airport heat island effect" at many of the big airports. DTW has grown into a huge airport with numerous runway additions and expansions, the most recent being 2019-20. Even though the ASOS is in a well protected area, theres almost certainly a slight impact from all the nearby concrete runways, especially since the more rural and wooded areas less than a mile outside the airport property run slightly cooler 24/7. I dont feel its a major issue as long as the NWS keeps the thermometer properly calibrated, nor do I feel they should be taking temps in the microclimate of cold readings just south of the airport (as thats not representative). I simply want temps to be representative of what the nearby area is, and with most major sites being at airports its just how it goes. Snow is measured just off site at a park area...would be interesting if there was a thermometer there to compare. 

Once we get away from DTW to the north and west, there are big elevation difference and some more alternating of bustling areas mixed with rural mixing bowls of raditaional cooling. And then to the northeast is a marine influence. So there are so many variables at play. As long as readings are accurate, thats all I ask for.

For instance, with this heat coming, id  rather set a record high of 100F with dews in the 60s rather than have it be 93 with a dew of 75. But mother nature makes the call.