June 2025 Obs/Disco

[WxWatcher007]

For the weenies among us 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah some guidance is nailing the PHL-NYC corridor. Decent height falls there as mid level temps cool slightly after 18z. I'll enjoy the cirrus.

[Typhoon Tip]

Why am I getting this "1 file would exceed the total allowed size of 21,xxx KB"  notification when others are posting images that clearly exceed this number

??

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Why am I getting this "1 file would exceed the total allowed size of 21,xxx KB"  notification when others are posting images that clearly exceed this number

??

you probably need to delete attachments...probably don't have enough space 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some guidance is nailing the PHL-NYC corridor. Decent height falls there as mid level temps cool slightly after 18z. I'll enjoy the cirrus.

Nadocast can be weenish but that's some impressive probs for this part of the country

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

you probably need to delete attachments...probably don't have enough space 

heh.. never was aware that was a requirement -  i'll take a look

 

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yesterday was decent until 3 here, and I think the aftn improves after 1-2p. Could be worse. 

Him and Flizz on Sunday clouded and rained out the next 6 days. Can’t make this stuff up 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some guidance is nailing the PHL-NYC corridor. Decent height falls there as mid level temps cool slightly after 18z. I'll enjoy the cirrus.

Looks like it’s all west of HFD to ORH. I’ll hear booms and get a token shower at 8:30

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like it’s all west of HFD to ORH. I’ll hear booms and get a token shower at 8:30

there will be two corridors for tomorrow. Climatologically PHL-NYC does extremely well in these setups. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like it’s all west of HFD to ORH. I’ll hear booms and get a token shower at 8:30

Low chance you get something interesting, but you’re far enough west to watch. Front is too far west by late aftn for these parts. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nadocast can be weenish but that's some impressive probs for this part of the country

I’m stirring the pot but yeah, I do think we could see an ENH kind of day tomorrow in part of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For the weenies among us 

12z NAM buckin' for a 1953 redux - even gotta hook there

[weatherwiz]

Where is ineedsnow

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

there will be two corridors for tomorrow. Climatologically PHL-NYC does extremely well in these setups. 

Climo blows 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Low chance you get something interesting, but you’re far enough west to watch. Front is too far west by late aftn for these parts. 

NW of HFD will get crushed, I’ll get excited , it’ll roar at BDL.. and then no cream in jeans as they rapidly weaken heading SE

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was partly sunny here until 2. Then after 3 off and on showers. Not one drop fell prior. You're depressing AF.

It’s the truth. I want nothing more than sun and high heat, the constant clouds is depressing.

 

It feels like it’s been cloudy for 3 months straight here

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

NWS HeatRisk is slowly escalating from Sunday through Tuesday, though we still aren’t seeing Extreme values punching into New England just yet.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

The ensemble means all look better than these operational versions regarding the pattern/favorable delivery

The operational versions have been subtly increasing a polar jet curving through SE Canada/N Ontario... cutting it real close.  It's tough to bring big numbers into NE with that synoptic construct - invariably we run into +PP genesis over Ontario itself and that's the ball game. 

we'll see

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z NAM buckin' for a 1953 redux - even gotta hook there

Will posting pictures of an EF-3 tearing through town while Kev smokes cirrus.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Will posting pictures of an EF-3 tearing through town while Kev smokes cirrus.

"Worse"ter yet ... he'll be standing out there glaring enviously at a brightly lit bum side of the CB tower as though the cool kids are mooning him.   lol

[ma blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The ensemble means all look better than these operational versions regarding the pattern/favorable delivery

The operational versions have been subtly increasing a polar jet curving through SE Canada/N Ontario... cutting it real close.  It's tough to bring big numbers into NE with that synoptic construct - invariably we run into +PP genesis over Ontario itself and that's the ball game. 

we'll see

CMC looks like the only model still showing the high end heat 

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't focus on model 2m output this far out...outside of looking at it for fun. As always, there are going to be several factors which are going to determine exactly how high temperatures get and these are more for the mesoscale time frame. If anything is going to hinder us it will end up being high clouds passing through. This would be something MOS won't pick up so as we get closer if MOS has 101 or 102's...better be checking potential for high clouds and what MOS has for dews and whether it looks overmixed

[Cyclone-68]

Btw I meant to ask but what is going on the last few days with the outlook area between SE PA and DE and NJ? They’ve been in a tiny marginal area the last few days. (And seems to have been producing too!) Some kind of orographic or local phenomena going on? 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't focus on model 2m output this far out...outside of looking at it for fun. As always, there are going to be several factors which are going to determine exactly how high temperatures get and these are more for the mesoscale time frame. If anything is going to hinder us it will end up being high clouds passing through. This would be something MOS won't pick up so as we get closer if MOS has 101 or 102's...better be checking potential for high clouds and what MOS has for dews and whether it looks overmixed

Yeah, all that ...and, I'm personally suspect that these global model '2-meter temp' depictions are not in fact the actual 2-meter temperatures, but are really just stopping the adiabats at 1000 mb level and taking whatever it calculates at that sigma level.

Pretty sure they lack the resolution in that lowest 20 someodd mb of the floor ... where the 2-meter slope temperature really is.   It can be 95 at the top of downtown church steeples and 101 on the sidewalk going by....

Although, in the winter, they do better ... but then in the winter the sounding is pretty uniform ( typically..) in the lower 100mb

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Btw I meant to ask but what is going on the last few days with the outlook area between SE PA and DE and NJ? They’ve been in a tiny marginal area the last few days. (And seems to have been producing too!) Some kind of orographic or local phenomena going on? 

Likely some certainly helping but I think they've also been along an instability gradient and there have been subtle vorts moving through 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s the truth. I want nothing more than sun and high heat, the constant clouds is depressing.

 

It feels like it’s been cloudy for 3 months straight here

We’ve had some nasty stretches, but I never saw this week as crap. I’d argue yesterday was better here than today lol.

[WxWatcher007]

New England into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
   Strong heating is expected across a broad, moist warm sector with
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Appalachians by
   Thursday afternoon. This will result in moderate to potentially
   strong instability across much of the East Coast. The best chance
   for more organized storms will be from central Virginia northward
   where stronger shear will be present beneath 50 knot mid-level flow.
   A zone of potentially greater severe weather probabilities may be
   present across the Mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability/shear
   are expected to overlap. It appears the cold front will lag well
   behind with the majority of convection developing along a
   pre-frontal trough during the afternoon. Without the stronger
   frontal forcing, some concerns about convective coverage/intensity
   exist, precluding higher probabilities at this time. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 days no sun with a max temp of 61-71 everyday .. horrible 

[butterfish55]

75/68 with the sun trying to break out. I work outside all day/everyday and it really hasn't been bad at all this week here in SE Ma.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

75/68 with the sun trying to break out. I work outside all day/everyday and it really hasn't been bad at all this week here in SE Ma.

Apparently 2 miles west of you it's 50 and  rained since Memorial Day.

[CoastalWx]

Euro hinting at a 48 hr break or so next week. Possible starting Wednesday in spots, especially coast and NoP. But it's a hot run overall. Lots of 85-95 until the very end.