June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 71 partly cloudy ish now

[Stormlover74]

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The sun is here and I see large patches of blue skies now Don :-)

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ...

Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way.

Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70). 

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ...

Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way.

Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70). 

Yes. That's correct about 1925. 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ...

Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way.

Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70). 

Also isn't there a whole week at the end of July when NYC has never hit 100 (I think it's July 24-30).

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Also isn't there a whole week at the end of July when NYC has never hit 100 (I think it's July 24-30).

Here's the data for 100° days:

Here's the distribution of 90°+ days, 100°+ days, and daily record highs:

[Roger Smith]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also isn't there a whole week at the end of July when NYC has never hit 100 (I think it's July 24-30).

That is correct, in fact it has not even hit 99 F from July 24 to 28. (99F on July 29, 1949). 

There's a similar lull in August from 16th to 25th with highest value 97F and even more pronounced, records of only 92F and 94F on Aug 23rd-24th. After August 25th the records generally pick up considerably although most are in a few years like 1948, 53, 73 and later 1881. Perhaps these are expectable random variations that will fill in after 250-300 years of records. 

[SACRUS]

 

83 / 71 here

Partly cloudy

[SACRUS]

 

Hope these fizzle (CPA) otherwise about 3 - 6 hours for arrival if, assuming nothing else pops.

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the for 100° days:

Here's the distribution of 90°+ days, 100°+ days, and daily record highs:

None on the 11th or 12th or in the entire 24-30 period which is very WEIRD.  Too bad the 31st broke the streak otherwise it would have been a clean sweep for every day in July after the 23rd lol.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That is correct, in fact it has not even hit 99 F from July 24 to 28. (99F on July 29, 1949). 

There's a similar lull in August from 16th to 25th with highest value 97F and even more pronounced, records of only 92F and 94F on Aug 23rd-24th. After August 25th the records generally pick up considerably although most are in a few years like 1948, 53, 73 and later 1881. Perhaps these are expectable random variations that will fill in after 250-300 years of records. 

I know about the other historic summers but what late hot streak did we have in 1973? Thats my birth year lol

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

83 / 71 here

Partly cloudy

it's been completely sunny and hot here for an hour now, going to turn on my a/c soon.

[Roger Smith]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know about the other historic summers but what late hot streak did we have in 1973? Thats my birth year lol

It was very similar to 1953 in timing and duration but not quite as intense, highs were often 95 to 98 and failed to break records but it was very hot (I was actually in NYC for one day during it, on a road trip). The records it did set were ties for max and min on 30th (98/78, ties with 1953 for the max and 2018 for the min). So it has the highest daily mean for Aug 30th. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

It was very similar to 1953 in timing and duration but not quite as intense, highs were often 95 to 98 and failed to break records but it was very hot (I was actually in NYC for one day during it, on a road trip). The records it did set were ties for max and min on 30th (98/78, ties with 1953 for the max and 2018 for the min). So it has the highest daily mean for Aug 30th. 

It's interesting how we do not have late season intense heat anymore (at least to my knowledge)-- we did have 95 in October here a few years ago (at JFK).  But our latest 98 in recent memory was in September 2010 and our latest 99 was on September 11, 1983 wasn't it?

Our latest 100 goes all the way back to September 7, 1881 (actually 101.) It was NYC's first 100 ever recorded and also its latest.

 

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Hope these fizzle (CPA) otherwise about 3 - 6 hours for arrival if, assuming nothing else pops.

 

We could use the rain, looks dry and warm upcoming

[psv88]

83/71 now, 85 earlier. Beautiful day 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn even warmer tomorrow. Tomorrow and Monday will likely see temperature reach the middle and perhaps upper 80s in New York City. Tuesday could top out near 90°. Newark could be near or just above 90° on each day during this peirod. In addition, there will be a risk of a shower or thundershower during the weekend. 

Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF show potential for more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +2.81 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.124 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal). 

 

[Santa Claus]

breezy enough

[weathermedic]

For comparison it’s 66 degrees and cloudy in Boston now with a northeast wind 

[Roger Smith]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting how we do not have late season intense heat anymore (at least to my knowledge)-- we did have 95 in October here a few years ago (at JFK).  But our latest 98 in recent memory was in September 2010 and our latest 99 was on September 11, 1983 wasn't it?

Our latest 100 goes all the way back to September 7, 1881 (actually 101.) It was NYC's first 100 ever recorded and also its latest.

 

 

That 99 in 1983 tied 1931 (Sep 11) but yes it was the latest in season. The next benchmarks are 97F on Sep 23, 1895 and 94F Oct 5, 1941, 91F Oct 10, 1939, and 90F Oct 17, 1938.  Benchmarks after that are Oct 22 1979 (88F), Oct 23, 1947 (85F), Nov 1 and 2 1950 (84F, 83F), Nov 15 1993 (80F), Nov 20, 1985 (77F) , Dec 7 1998 (75F) and possibly Dec 24 2015 (72F). (a benchmark as you probably know is a latest occurrence in season, or an earliest from midwinter to midsummer). 

Benchmarks before the 1881 101F are (by definition) the all-time record 106F July 9, 1936, then 104F Aug 7, 1918, 103F Aug 26, 1948 and 102F Sep 2, 1953, 101F Sep 7, 1881.

2015 (Dec 24) at 72F is a partially invalid benchmark as it was also 72F on Jan 6, 2007 and Jan 26, 1950. These are probably the real benchmarks eliminating Dec 24, 2015 but another view would be only Jan 25, 1950 is a benchmark (falling) because the coldest day of winter is on average in early February. This is when the benchmarks reverse, so the set of spring into summer benchmarks are 73F (Feb 15, 1949), 78F Feb 21, 2018,  79F Mar 10, 2016,  85F Mar 13, 1990,  86F Mar 29, 1945,  92F Apr 7, 2010; 96F Apr 17, 2002; 99F May 19, 1962; 100F June 26, 1952, 101F June 27, 1966, and 103F July 3, 1966 before the ultimate 106F July 9, 1936.  These are the only daily records that "really matter" in the sense that all others are not as impressive in terms of being earliest or latest occurrences. It's interesting how few of these are recent. If you only count the 72F in Jan 1950, then there are 29 benchmarks (one tied 1931,1983, and two cases of two consecutive in same year 1950 and 1966) and the median of the 26 years involved (1950 counts three times, 1966 twice) is 1952. The years counted are

1881 1895 1918 1931 1936 1938 1939 1941 1945 1947 1948 1950** 1952 1953 1962 1966* 1979 1983 1985 1990 1993 1998 2002 2010 (2007, 2015 not counted) 2016 2018 ...

The benchmarks cluster noticeably from 1936 to 1953 (12 of 29), and 1979 to 2002 (7 more). There is no significant bias towards recent decades, with 29 benchmarks over 156 years, one would expect 4 since 2000 which is the case. The number established by 1918 (3) is well below random expectation (9). The only year with two non-consecutive benchmarks from the same spell of weather is 1950 (one in January, two in early November). But if Dec 2015 counted, the two closest in time (non-associated) would be that one and March 10, 2016. 

I'm not sure what name you could give an almost-benchmark, which would be a case like April 18, 1976, tying a benchmark and clearly a near-equal outlier (86F Mar 31 1998 would be another, as would 94F on Sep 23, 1914). I guess almost-benchmark is probably as good as we'll get. A benchmark can be erased as even a daily record, for example, April 7, 1929 (89F) was a benchmark until 2010 replaced it as both a daily record and benchmark. 1991 held a 90F benchmark set April 8, that one is still a daily record but was removed as a benchmark by 2010. 

May is the only month with only one benchmark. That is a sign of the extreme significance of the 1976 and 2002 April 96 readings, no date in early to mid-May exceeded them (before 1962, the benchmarks were 92F (Apr 27, 1915), 93F (May 12, 1881), 95F (May 25, 1880), 96F (May 31 1895, 1939) and 99F (June 4, 1925). 

[mgerb]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

We could use the rain, looks dry and warm upcoming

About 1.80" for the month here, so yes, would like some rain. Haven't really had a legit thunderstorm yet this year either. 

[doncat]

1 minute ago, mgerb said:

About 1.80" for the month here, so yes, would like some rain. Haven't really had a legit thunderstorm yet this year either. 

1.35" here for month... 16.85" for year, about 8" below normal .

[Poker2015]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Where's the wind? Light breeze, but nothing special

[mgerb]

Just now, Poker2015 said:

Where's the wind? Light breeze, but nothing special

This is probability of severe wind, not general wind conditions. 

[Poker2015]

Just now, mgerb said:

This is probability of severe wind, not general wind conditions. 

I get it, but would have thought there would be a few strong gusts 

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, mgerb said:

About 1.80" for the month here, so yes, would like some rain. Haven't really had a legit thunderstorm yet this year either. 

2.47 on month but still need lots of water for grass