2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[nw baltimore wx]

She’s a beaut, Clark. Absolutely incredible.

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

She’s a beaut, Clark. Absolutely incredible.

It's going supercane. It's basically a giant EF 4 tornado 

Edit: Right now it's perfectly symmetrical. I wonder if it will dial in and make the 190 mph club. What a monster. Holy shit 

[LP08]

Outrageous.  

[WxWatcher007]

No hint of an ERC either

[mappy]

Oooof 

[dailylurker]

Even Reed Timmer is sitting this one out. RIP Jamaica. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Does anyone know the island well enough to share a live feed from near the expected landfall?

[LP08]

I sure do hope we get this video.  Never seen the hunters go on multiple loops inside the eye

[LP08]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Is that 983 extrapolated low 

They got 893 on a dropsonde with 13kt surface wind. So probably 892.

[midatlanticweather]

Ya!! I see.. Holy cow.. Matches 1935 Florida Keys.. Right? 

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Ya!! I see.. Holy cow.. Matches 1935 Florida Keys.. Right? 

Tied for third strongest in Atlantic history. Will be one of the strongest landfalls since Labor Day. 

[WxWatcher007]

My hypothetical chase location would've been dead on. 

[H2O]

It’s a beast and says fu to those that say the Atlantic can’t make supers

[WxWatcher007]

Strongest storm on Earth this year. 

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My hypothetical chase location would've been dead on. 

Probably emphasis on the "dead"

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Probably emphasis on the "dead"

Nah, I'm no yahoo, as you know. Rule 1 is to stay away from water danger. Rule 2 is to shelter appropriately. I always make sure I do my research before traveling. I've even pulled permits for possible chase shelters before. Consult with pro mets before and during an high end event to make sure I'm not missing anything in my analysis.

Dangerous, yes, but not without doing everything I can to mitigate risk to myself and others.  

Island roulette though is too much of a wildcard for me. No radar, fragile communication infrastructure, no true escape routes. If I were to do my first island chase, it wouldn't have been for this one. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My hypothetical chase location would've been dead on. 

Unfortunately the dead part probably would have been correct. 

[ravensrule]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nah, I'm no yahoo, as you know. Rule 1 is to stay away from water danger. Rule 2 is to shelter appropriately. I always make sure I do my research before traveling. I've even pulled permits for possible chase shelters before. Consult with pro mets before and during an high end event to make sure I'm not missing anything in my analysis.

Dangerous, yes, but not without doing everything I can to mitigate risk to myself and others.  

Island roulette though is too much of a wildcard for me. No radar, fragile communication infrastructure, no true escape routes. If I were to do my first island chase, it wouldn't have been for this one. 

You're a smart, brave man. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

You're a smart, brave man. 

You gotta respect the storm. The good chasers know that--whether in a TC or on the Plains. All of this stuff is a calculated risk to begin with, so there's no sense in putting yourself or others in unnecessary danger by driving through a storm (which I've seen in every MH I've chased), playing around with surge, or putting yourself in an unsafe structure. You can collect great data and good footage without doing all that. 

[mappy]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Landfall appears imminent. 

[Maestrobjwa]

53 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Holy stadium...

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Holy stadium...

And the vortices near the surface. So pretty 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

And the vortices near the surface. So pretty 

Are those the little things you see at the center there? (I think I recognize the shape from satellite images)

[nw baltimore wx]

Looks like she’s taken a last minute jog northwest and hugging the coast.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are those the little things you see at the center there? (I think I recognize the shape from satellite images)

Yep. I believe I was in one during Idalia. There was a dramatic increase and sudden shift in wind. 

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA...
...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE 
ATLANTIC BASIN...

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with 
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an  
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do 
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will 
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. 
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these 
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the 
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you 
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where 
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in 
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a 
helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided with the intermediate 
advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

[dailylurker]

Holy shit! The video of the eye over land is going to be wild. I'm afraid the whole western side of the island is going to be flattened. What a humbling display of power by mother nature. 

[Twilly05]

First time I have ever read an official forecast that suggests”wearing a helmet”

holy smokes

[mappy]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are those the little things you see at the center there? (I think I recognize the shape from satellite images)

Yeah same vortices you see from top down