2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[WolfStock1]

Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar.   It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph.

[Paleocene]

2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar.   It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph.

Indeed. Looks rough! https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/

[wxmeddler]

2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar.   It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph.

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

[WolfStock1]

13 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

Interesting.   

Well, I know it's not tropical, but it is now showing winds up to 66 kph:

 

[WxWatcher007]

On 8/25/2025 at 12:48 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (1)
Hurricanes: 6 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (0)

Fernand

I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (2)
Hurricanes: 6 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (0)

Fernand, Gabrielle

[Weather Will]

MJO forecasted to stay in the null phase...if that verifies a strong finish to the hurricane season may not materialize.

[WxWatcher007]

Gabby is now a hurricane after undergoing RI, and is forecast to become a major. Huge for my forecast. The models are also bullish on the central Atlantic wave developing, and possibly the leading wave. We’ll see if that trend continues but it’s a good look so far for my forecast…

[WxWatcher007]

On 9/17/2025 at 11:06 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (2)
Hurricanes: 6 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (0)

Fernand, Gabrielle

 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (2)
Hurricanes: 6 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (1)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH)

Thank you Gabby! More likely on the way. 

[scope1]

Hour 177 is interesting. 6z GFS had the storm much closer to the DC area but still something to watch. 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro would get some remnant rain into the region

[WxWatcher007]

While there’s still a lot to sort out, if 94L doesn’t merge with 93L as the GFS tries to predict, it very well may be an east coast threat. This is worth a close watch.

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Euro trend has been toward a more robust system, with 06z showing a strong storm.

What’s far more important however for a D6 forecast is the Euro continues to show a cutoff low over the southeast with a ridge building over the top of the eastern U.S., effectively guaranteeing a bona fide east coast threat. Here, it looks like the trough to the east (top right of image) is not enough to kick this out to sea. AI models in general support this upper level configuration too.

Now, before coastal folks get too concerned, there’s still a LOT to sort out because while the cutoff looks legit, we don’t know where it’ll be, the location of the ridge, and how much, if any, an escape window opens. There’s also the big question of how the spacing of the three systems—Gabrielle, 93L, and 94L, impact track and intensity of 94L.

Now that this is an invest, the additional resources will help us nail this down. This one is worth more than a casual eye.

 

[Weather Will]

MJO on EURO made a shift toward favorable phase 2 next week, just in time for tropical development....

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO and AI Day 6 ensembles.

[WxWatcher007]

This is quite the setup moving forward. Really need to see how 94L interacts with Hispaniola. 93L is on its way to development imo. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is quite the setup moving forward. Really need to see how 94L interacts with Hispaniola. 93L is on its way to development imo. 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

Hurricane Season Update | Tuesday Evening September 23, 2025 High chance of both Invest 93L & 94L developing into hurricanes with a risk to the U.S. East Coast from one of them. Major intensity on table for both --> High Uncertainty

 

 

Updated ECMWF 18z cycle has Humberto and Imelda moving in concert to the NNW Highly unusual to have twin hurricanes not repelling each other or orbiting a center of mass. Uncertainty = HIGH with these two systems (currently Invest 93L and Invest 94L)

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z ATCF tracks for 94L.

[WxUSAF]

0z euro is fun lol

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro is fun lol

Almost fun then OTS. Let's get that further north. It's been a long time since we've had any fun weather. Definitely something to watch.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon might start sampling the environment today per NHC. This is a really complicated setup with the two systems so close. 

00z EPS

[Kmlwx]

Always bet on Fuijiwhara  

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Always bet on Fuijiwhara  

That may be the only thing that saves the east coast…

[WxWatcher007]

Not surprising that models are flip flopping all over the place. GFS after losing 94L for a while now develops it in the 18z run. Given how robust 94L has looked, I've always sold the idea that it wouldn't develop, but let's see how it handles interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (3)
Hurricanes: 6 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (1)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI and EPS ensemble at Day 6

[Eskimo Joe]

FYSA, starting tonight several east coast WFOs will being launching 06z and 18z soundings until further notice. 

[dailylurker]

Euro looks fun. Gfs looks boring. At least we have something interesting to track!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks like a predecessor rain event perhaps on the euro?

[stormy]

The EURO is backing off with the 06z run.

[WxWatcher007]

I wouldn't look at the verbatim output seriously yet. Look at the upper level pattern. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z tracks.

[WxWatcher007]

I now believe that Invest 94L is a bona fide threat to the U.S. East Coast. 

Still, there is enormous uncertainty regarding the intensity and track of what is likely to become Imelda in the coming days. 

First, let's take a look at Humberto, which will play a critical role in the track of 94L. Although still sheared with the center likely west of the deeper convection, this tropical storm is on a clear organizing trend. 

The spacing between Humberto and 94L has been a point of discussion for days now. How close these two get will determine whether there will be a binary interaction. 

The GFS, which after sniffing out the potential for TC development in the SW Atlantic then kind of got lost in trying to consolidate the two waves, has clearly trended toward the Euro--to the extent you can with this much uncertainty in the setup. These are the last 5 GFS runs. 

Note how the trend has been two-fold. First, there is the obvious change that makes 94L stronger. That decreases the likelihood that it is absorbed by Humberto and given an escape route OTS. The second change is the spacing. It's subtle, but can be seen easily. A stronger and more organized 94L would likely have the outflow necessary to keep Humberto at bay. 

On the Euro, you see a similar trend with regard to spacing. Note how the escape routes of 1) Humberto and 2) NW flow in New England and SE Canada are blocked. These are the last 3 runs--not including this morning's 06z op run which continues the trend. 

The spacing difference is more than enough here to limit the impact of Humberto. 

Are we guaranteed a SE coast hit? Not at all. There are a lot of nuances remaining, including how quickly Humberto intensifies and its forward speed, the amplitude of the ridge and how it develops, and the amplitude of the cutoff over the CONUS. 

It is very clear, however, that 94L is poised to develop, and it poses a risk to at least the SE coast with regard to a direct hit, with possible impacts further north depending on track.