WolfStock1 Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar. It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said: Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar. It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph. Indeed. Looks rough! https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said: Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar. It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph. It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 13 hours ago, wxmeddler said: It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX. Interesting. Well, I know it's not tropical, but it is now showing winds up to 66 kph: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 On 8/25/2025 at 12:48 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Fernand I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH.Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (2) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Fernand, Gabrielle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:16 PM MJO forecasted to stay in the null phase...if that verifies a strong finish to the hurricane season may not materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 10:14 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:14 PM Gabby is now a hurricane after undergoing RI, and is forecast to become a major. Huge for my forecast. The models are also bullish on the central Atlantic wave developing, and possibly the leading wave. We’ll see if that trend continues but it’s a good look so far for my forecast… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM On 9/17/2025 at 11:06 AM, WxWatcher007 said: I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH.Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (2) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Fernand, Gabrielle Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (2) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 3 (1) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH) Thank you Gabby! More likely on the way. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted Monday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:17 PM Hour 177 is interesting. 6z GFS had the storm much closer to the DC area but still something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Euro would get some remnant rain into the region 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 12:11 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:11 PM While there’s still a lot to sort out, if 94L doesn’t merge with 93L as the GFS tries to predict, it very well may be an east coast threat. This is worth a close watch. 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Euro trend has been toward a more robust system, with 06z showing a strong storm. What’s far more important however for a D6 forecast is the Euro continues to show a cutoff low over the southeast with a ridge building over the top of the eastern U.S., effectively guaranteeing a bona fide east coast threat. Here, it looks like the trough to the east (top right of image) is not enough to kick this out to sea. AI models in general support this upper level configuration too. Now, before coastal folks get too concerned, there’s still a LOT to sort out because while the cutoff looks legit, we don’t know where it’ll be, the location of the ridge, and how much, if any, an escape window opens. There’s also the big question of how the spacing of the three systems—Gabrielle, 93L, and 94L, impact track and intensity of 94L. Now that this is an invest, the additional resources will help us nail this down. This one is worth more than a casual eye. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago MJO on EURO made a shift toward favorable phase 2 next week, just in time for tropical development.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago WB 18Z EURO and AI Day 6 ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago This is quite the setup moving forward. Really need to see how 94L interacts with Hispaniola. 93L is on its way to development imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is quite the setup moving forward. Really need to see how 94L interacts with Hispaniola. 93L is on its way to development imo. Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Hurricane Season Update | Tuesday Evening September 23, 2025 High chance of both Invest 93L & 94L developing into hurricanes with a risk to the U.S. East Coast from one of them. Major intensity on table for both --> High Uncertainty Updated ECMWF 18z cycle has Humberto and Imelda moving in concert to the NNW Highly unusual to have twin hurricanes not repelling each other or orbiting a center of mass. Uncertainty = HIGH with these two systems (currently Invest 93L and Invest 94L) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago WB 6Z ATCF tracks for 94L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 0z euro is fun lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro is fun lol Almost fun then OTS. Let's get that further north. It's been a long time since we've had any fun weather. Definitely something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Recon might start sampling the environment today per NHC. This is a really complicated setup with the two systems so close. 00z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago Always bet on Fuijiwhara 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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