2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[WolfStock1]

Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar.   It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph.

[Paleocene]

2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar.   It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph.

Indeed. Looks rough! https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/

[wxmeddler]

2 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar.   It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph.

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

[WolfStock1]

13 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

Interesting.   

Well, I know it's not tropical, but it is now showing winds up to 66 kph:

 

[WxWatcher007]

On 8/25/2025 at 12:48 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (1)
Hurricanes: 6 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (0)

Fernand

I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (2)
Hurricanes: 6 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (0)

Fernand, Gabrielle

[Weather Will]

MJO forecasted to stay in the null phase...if that verifies a strong finish to the hurricane season may not materialize.

[WxWatcher007]

Gabby is now a hurricane after undergoing RI, and is forecast to become a major. Huge for my forecast. The models are also bullish on the central Atlantic wave developing, and possibly the leading wave. We’ll see if that trend continues but it’s a good look so far for my forecast…

[WxWatcher007]

On 9/17/2025 at 11:06 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (2)
Hurricanes: 6 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (0)

Fernand, Gabrielle

 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (2)
Hurricanes: 6 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (1)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH)

Thank you Gabby! More likely on the way. 

[scope1]

Hour 177 is interesting. 6z GFS had the storm much closer to the DC area but still something to watch. 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro would get some remnant rain into the region

[WxWatcher007]

While there’s still a lot to sort out, if 94L doesn’t merge with 93L as the GFS tries to predict, it very well may be an east coast threat. This is worth a close watch.

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Euro trend has been toward a more robust system, with 06z showing a strong storm.

What’s far more important however for a D6 forecast is the Euro continues to show a cutoff low over the southeast with a ridge building over the top of the eastern U.S., effectively guaranteeing a bona fide east coast threat. Here, it looks like the trough to the east (top right of image) is not enough to kick this out to sea. AI models in general support this upper level configuration too.

Now, before coastal folks get too concerned, there’s still a LOT to sort out because while the cutoff looks legit, we don’t know where it’ll be, the location of the ridge, and how much, if any, an escape window opens. There’s also the big question of how the spacing of the three systems—Gabrielle, 93L, and 94L, impact track and intensity of 94L.

Now that this is an invest, the additional resources will help us nail this down. This one is worth more than a casual eye.