May 2025

[LibertyBell]

Yay the sun has come out, bright and sunny here now

[Sundog]

The 12z GEMLAM has 2 inches of rain over a large area. This is hour 45:

 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

The 12z GEMLAM has 2 inches of rain over a large area. This is hour 45:

 

So the weekend is a washout.

[Brian5671]

NAM is very wet

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

So the weekend is a washout.

Sundays not

[WestBabylonWeather]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM is very wet

Montauk drizzle 

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM is very wet

Latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook 12Z Fri. - 12Z Sat.

Slight Risk perhaps suggesting max rainfall centered a little further west of latest NAM totals.  Or maybe just Flash Flood Guidance is indicating lower tolerance for heavier rains / some flooding further west.

[Stormlover74]

Meanwhile I get an email from American water telling me we're in a drought warning

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meanwhile I get an email from American water telling me we're in a drought warning

Maybe a month ago....not now

[Sundog]

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM is very wet

NAM 3K is really a POS model. It had nothing at 12z. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Readings will likely top out in the middle 70s in the New York City area.

Additional showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow night and Saturday. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the month with the exception of tomorrow.

Above normal temperatures could develop near the middle of next week.

June looks to be warmer than normal on the CFSv2. However, just as had been the case for May, the AI guidance is notably cooler than the conventional models.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +21.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.977 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.6° (0.6° below normal).

 

[Sundog]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meanwhile I get an email from American water telling me we're in a drought warning

This reminds me of when NYC closed schools for remote the day AFTER the smoke filled day a couple years ago lol

A little late there guys

 

[Roger Smith]

Tracking progress of 2025 in top 20 wettest Mays ...

21 _ 5.76 _ (2004)

20 _ 5.77 _ (1897)

19 _ 6.12 _ 2025 (29, 4 pm )

18 _ 6.23 _ (1979)

17 _ 6.34 _ (1924)

16 _ 6.38 _ (2017)

15 _ 6.43 _ (1901)

14 _ 6.72 _ (1898)

13 _ 6.80 _ (1946)

12 _ 6.82 _ (2019)

11 _ 6.94 _ (1998)

10 _ 7.06 _ (1968)

09 _ 7.58 _ (1948)

08 _ 7.61 _ (1940)

07 _ 8.00 _ (2013)

06 _ 8.39 _ (1972)

05 _ 8.51 _ (1908)

04 _ 9.10 _ (1990)

03 _ 9.15 _ (1978)

02 _ 9.74 _ (1984)

01 _10.24 _ (1989)

_______________________________________

Last year was 4.11" (62nd wettest)

 

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Tracking progress of 2025 in top 20 wettest Mays ...

19 _ 6.12 _ 2025 (29, 4 pm )

_______________________________________

Last year was 4.11" (62nd wettest)

 

 

Thru 5/29 another 1-2 Fri/Sat

LGA: 4.69
EWR: 4.36
JFK: 3.83

[SACRUS]

Up to 71 with the 14 minutes of sunshine here

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

So the weekend is a washout.

No just Friday night and early Saturday sun comes back out midday Saturday, thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, sunny and windy on Sunday.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sundays not

By the way the sun is out right now, we're on for Manhattenhenge.

It doesn't matter how much rainfall these models show, the rain is going to be scattered, the sun will be around in the middle of the day Saturday and tomorrow will be partly sunny too.

 

[steve392]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

By the way the sun is out right now, we're on for Manhattenhenge.

It doesn't matter how much rainfall these models show, the rain is going to be scattered, the sun will be around in the middle of the day Saturday and tomorrow will be partly sunny too.

 

Clouds rolled in like we were going to get thunderstorm.  Was dark then sunrise started to appear. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Nice moisture slug down in south Jersey. Trajectory looks to be eastern Li. 

[bluewave]

NYC metro will approach the lowest late May pressures on record tomorrow. We will probably come in about 5mb above the all-time May and June lows. 987 mb is a record for May 31st and just above the monthly lows in the low 980s. So people will be looking at their home barometers and asking what month is this.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Probably our last 40s for lows until mid-late September coming up. Models transition into full summer mode after this weekend 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably our last 40s for lows until mid-late September coming up. Models transition into full summer mode after this weekend 

Still quite a bit of inshore flow with the cutoff low lingering nearby. The usual warm spots will probably get back to the 80s. But the first 90° still looks delayed to beyond the first week of June.
 

 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still quite a bit of inshore flow with the cutoff low lingering nearby. The usual warm spots will probably get back to the 80s. But the first 90° still looks delayed to beyond the first week of June.
 

 

Yep if we have that to our south, no way there’s much heat for our subforum. Maybe way north in New England where it clears out. 

[Sundog]

Even at the end of May we get a last minute westward push with the low lol

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Even at the end of May we get a last minute westward push with the low lol

 

The steeper ridge allows these lows underneath to cut off and crawl around. If you want real heat anymore we have to go to Montreal lol. 

[winterwarlock]

Make this garbage weather end...the same week repeating four weeks in a row...we are almost in frickin June

 

I swear if next week promised sun and 80s gets muted somehow.....

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep if we have that to our south, no way there’s much heat for our subforum. Maybe way north in New England where it clears out. 

Yeah, this is why we were +5 a few weeks ago for May and now down to 0 to +2.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Make this garbage weather end...the same week repeating four weeks in a row...we are almost in frickin June

 

I swear if next week promised sun and 80s gets muted somehow.....

Hope it does

[ForestHillWx]

The positives are low utility costs. I’ll enjoy it as long as possible. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The positives are low utility costs. I’ll enjoy it as long as possible. 

yep my electric bill for May was very low.