May 2025

[SACRUS]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a delayed first 90° of the season for the warm spots like Newark. Models still have the upper low sitting over the Northeast on Memorial Day weekend. If this forecast does indeed verify, then it could mean that a summer like 2021 and 2022 for over 40 days reaching 90° near Newark may be less likely. This was the case in 2020 with the delayed first 90° into early June signaling fewer 90° days overall. These days Newark needs 40 or more days reaching 90° to be considered to be a high number. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	04-13 (2023)		08-27 (2020)		81
Mean	05-16		09-11		118
Maximum	06-06 (2020)		10-02 (2019)		147
2024	05-02 (2024)	90	08-28 (2024)	95	117
2023	04-13 (2023)	92	09-08 (2023)	92	147
2022	05-21 (2022)	95	09-04 (2022)	93	105
2021	05-19 (2021)	91	09-15 (2021)	91	118
2020	06-06 (2020)	91	08-27 (2020)	93	81
2019	05-26 (2019)	90	10-02 (2019)	96	128
2018	05-02 (2018)	90	09-06 (2018)	98	126
2017	05-17 (2017)	92	09-25 (2017)	90	130
2016	05-25 (2016)	91	09-23 (2016)	90	120
2015	05-25 (2015)	90	09-09 (2015)	91	106

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024	33	0
2023	29	0
2022	49	0
2021	41	0
2020	31	0
2019	27	0
2018	36	0
2017	22	0
2016	40	0
2015	35	0

 

You wonder in the 5/20 - 5/24 period of any of the building heat to the SW gets up this way ahead of any Memorial Day weekend trough - way out there.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

You wonder in the 5/20 - 5/24 period of any of the building heat to the SW gets up this way ahead of any Memorial Day weekend trough - way out there.

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. But it does look like 90° potential will probably wait until after the Memorial Day weekend.

While recent years had under 40 days at Newark with the first 90° holding off until after June 1st, the last time the first 90° getting delayed into June reached 40 days was 1983. But that was after a super El Niño winter and not a La Niña like this year.

The real test will probably come during the last week of May which is beyond the 15 day model range. If a 90° day can’t sneak in that week, then the chances for Newark reaching 40 days this year could be diminished based on the past. 
 

All years at Newark with 40 days reaching 90° and the 1st 90° day

2010….54….4-7

2022….49….5-21

1993…..49….5-9

1988….43…..5-31

2021....41……5-19

1991….41……5-12

2016...40…..5-25

1983…40…..6-12

1959….40…..5-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a delayed first 90° of the season for the warm spots like Newark. Models still have the upper low sitting over the Northeast on Memorial Day weekend. If this forecast does indeed verify, then it could mean that a summer like 2021 and 2022 for over 40 days reaching 90° near Newark may be less likely. This was the case in 2020 with the delayed first 90° into early June signaling fewer 90° days overall. These days Newark needs 40 or more days reaching 90° to be considered to be a high number. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	04-13 (2023)		08-27 (2020)		81
Mean	05-16		09-11		118
Maximum	06-06 (2020)		10-02 (2019)		147
2024	05-02 (2024)	90	08-28 (2024)	95	117
2023	04-13 (2023)	92	09-08 (2023)	92	147
2022	05-21 (2022)	95	09-04 (2022)	93	105
2021	05-19 (2021)	91	09-15 (2021)	91	118
2020	06-06 (2020)	91	08-27 (2020)	93	81
2019	05-26 (2019)	90	10-02 (2019)	96	128
2018	05-02 (2018)	90	09-06 (2018)	98	126
2017	05-17 (2017)	92	09-25 (2017)	90	130
2016	05-25 (2016)	91	09-23 (2016)	90	120
2015	05-25 (2015)	90	09-09 (2015)	91	106

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024	33	0
2023	29	0
2022	49	0
2021	41	0
2020	31	0
2019	27	0
2018	36	0
2017	22	0
2016	40	0
2015	35	0

to be fair our last really hot summer was 2013, Newark is notorious for having a hot bias.

Is this the same low coming back again and again? How long does it take for this thing to dissipate?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. But it does look like 90° potential will probably wait until after the Memorial Day weekend.

While recent years had under 40 days at Newark with the first 90° holding off until after June 1st, the last time the first 90° getting delayed into June reached 40 days was 1983. But that was after a super El Niño winter and not a La Niña like this year.

The real test will probably come during the last week of May which is beyond the 15 day model range. If a 90° day can’t sneak in that week, then the chances for Newark reaching 40 days this year could be diminished based on the past. 
 

All years at Newark with 40 days reaching 90° and the 1st 90° day

2010….54….4-7

2022….49….5-21

1993…..49….5-9

1988….43…..5-31

2021....41……5-19

1991….41……5-12

2016...40…..5-25

1983…40…..6-12

1959….40…..5-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

1983 was a genuinely hot summer, none of these post 2013 summers have been hot like that.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. But it does look like 90° potential will probably wait until after the Memorial Day weekend.

While recent years had under 40 days at Newark with the first 90° holding off until after June 1st, the last time the first 90° getting delayed into June reached 40 days was 1983. But that was after a super El Niño winter and not a La Niña like this year.

The real test will probably come during the last week of May which is beyond the 15 day model range. If a 90° day can’t sneak in that week, then the chances for Newark reaching 40 days this year could be diminished based on the past. 
 

All years at Newark with 40 days reaching 90° and the 1st 90° day

2010….54….4-7

2022….49….5-21

1993…..49….5-9

1988….43…..5-31

2021....41……5-19

1991….41……5-12

2016...40…..5-25

1983…40…..6-12

1959….40…..5-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

How many 90 degree days did NYC and JFK have in 2022? That 49 number for Newark seems rather high and doesn't fit the profile of the other summers around it which were hotter.

1983, 1991, 1993, 2010 were all much hotter summers.

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

to be fair our last really hot summer was 2013, Newark is notorious for having a hot bias.

Is this the same low coming back again and again? How long does it take for this thing to dissipate?

There is actually a cool bias at times at Newark since the ASOS is right on the water and gets a sea breeze. You will notice several more inland NJ sites having a similar number or more 90° days than Newark does. This is the total 90° count for the 2020s in NJ so far with the Harrison and Hightstown beating Newark for 90° days.

 

90 day Data for January 1, 2020 through May 9, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	204
HARRISON	COOP	195
Newark Area	ThreadEx	183
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	183
CANOE BROOK	COOP	173
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	170
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	169
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	167
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	162
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	160
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	154
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	154

 

 

 

[Sundog]

10/10 today wow wow

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

10/10 today wow wow

Too windy for a perfect 10 but it's really nice out.  

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is actually a cool bias at times at Newark since the ASOS is right on the water and gets a sea breeze. You will notice several more inland NJ sites having a similar number or more 90° days than Newark does. This is the total 90° count for the 2020s in NJ so far with the Harrison and Hightstown beating Newark for 90° days.

 

90 day Data for January 1, 2020 through May 9, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	204
HARRISON	COOP	195
Newark Area	ThreadEx	183
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	183
CANOE BROOK	COOP	173
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	170
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	169
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	167
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	162
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	160
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	154
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	154

 

 

 

But extreme heat seems to elude Newark, if you go back to 1993, Newark had a 5 day streak of 100+ and 9 total days of 100+ including hitting 105 twice.  This is backed up by NYC hitting 100+ three days in a row and JFK hitting 100+ two days in a row.  That's what I mean by a really hot summer.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Too windy for a perfect 10 but it's really nice out.  

Tomorrow will be a Perfect 10, just in time for Mother's Day!!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How many 90 degree days did NYC and JFK have in 2022? That 49 number for Newark seems rather high and doesn't fit the profile of the other summers around it which were hotter.

1983, 1991, 1993, 2010 were all much hotter summers.

It’s the predominant wind direction. Which has been has had less west in it the last few years. That’s why NJ has been hotter. I have a feeling we see more west wind this summer, like today and this winter. That wind direction really bakes the south shore.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s the predominant wind direction. Which has been has had less west in it the last few years. That’s why NJ has been hotter. I have a feeling we see more west wind this summer, like today and this winter. That wind direction really bakes the south shore.

Look at this,  I'm privileged enough to remember these summers.  1993 had the hottest period of my life time.  It was the first summer I started using air conditioning here.  Look at this absolutely amazing streak of 10 days of 90+ and 3 days of 100+ something I am reasonably confident we'll never see again in our lifetime.  The amazing thing about the last two days of the 1993 streak is they happened AFTER a cold front had passed through.  90 and dry actually felt COLD

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row (through March 10)
Days	Dates	Temperatures
12	August 24 - Sept 4, 1953	91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90
11	July 23 - August 2, 1999	92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90
10	July 7 - 16, 1993 August 4 - 13, 1896	98,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90 90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,90
9	August 11 - 19, 2002 July 13 - 21, 1977 July 6 - 14, 1966 July 5 - 13, 1944	92,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94 93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104 91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95 93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,91
8	July 29 - August 5, 2002 August 2 - 9, 1980 August 28 - Sept 4, 1973 August 10 - 17, 1944 June 26 - July 3, 1901	96, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91 91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95 98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95 91,91,93,95,95,100,100,94
7	July 29 - August 4, 1995 August 9 - 15, 1998 July 15 - 21, 1991 July 12 - 18, 1983 July 7 - 13, 1981 August 1 - 7, 1955 July 15 - 21, 1953	93, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96 93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97 90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102 94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97 94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93 98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93 92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Look at this,  I'm privileged enough to remember these summers.  1993 had the hottest period of my life time.  It was the first summer I started using air conditioning here.  Look at this absolutely amazing streak of 10 days of 90+ and 3 days of 100+ something I am reasonably confident we'll never see again in our lifetime.  The amazing thing about the last two days of the 1993 streak is they happened AFTER a cold front had passed through.  90 and dry actually felt COLD

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row (through March 10)
Days	Dates	Temperatures
12	August 24 - Sept 4, 1953	91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90
11	July 23 - August 2, 1999	92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90
10	July 7 - 16, 1993 August 4 - 13, 1896	98,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90 90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,90
9	August 11 - 19, 2002 July 13 - 21, 1977 July 6 - 14, 1966 July 5 - 13, 1944	92,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94 93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104 91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95 93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,91
8	July 29 - August 5, 2002 August 2 - 9, 1980 August 28 - Sept 4, 1973 August 10 - 17, 1944 June 26 - July 3, 1901	96, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91 91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95 98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95 91,91,93,95,95,100,100,94
7	July 29 - August 4, 1995 August 9 - 15, 1998 July 15 - 21, 1991 July 12 - 18, 1983 July 7 - 13, 1981 August 1 - 7, 1955 July 15 - 21, 1953	93, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96 93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97 90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102 94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97 94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93 98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93 92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90

also notable is we have not seen a super heatwave like the above since 2002, even 2010 and 2011 only had much shorter heatwaves!

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at this,  I'm privileged enough to remember these summers.  1993 had the hottest period of my life time.  It was the first summer I started using air conditioning here.  Look at this absolutely amazing streak of 10 days of 90+ and 3 days of 100+ something I am reasonably confident we'll never see again in our lifetime.  The amazing thing about the last two days of the 1993 streak is they happened AFTER a cold front had passed through.  90 and dry actually felt COLD

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row (through March 10)
Days	Dates	Temperatures
12	August 24 - Sept 4, 1953	91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90
11	July 23 - August 2, 1999	92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90
10	July 7 - 16, 1993 August 4 - 13, 1896	98,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90 90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,90
9	August 11 - 19, 2002 July 13 - 21, 1977 July 6 - 14, 1966 July 5 - 13, 1944	92,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94 93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104 91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95 93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,91
8	July 29 - August 5, 2002 August 2 - 9, 1980 August 28 - Sept 4, 1973 August 10 - 17, 1944 June 26 - July 3, 1901	96, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91 91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95 98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95 91,91,93,95,95,100,100,94
7	July 29 - August 4, 1995 August 9 - 15, 1998 July 15 - 21, 1991 July 12 - 18, 1983 July 7 - 13, 1981 August 1 - 7, 1955 July 15 - 21, 1953	93, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96 93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97 90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102 94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97 94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93 98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93 92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90

The other ones that really stand out in my mind are the 1999 streak, it felt like the entire month of July was above 1999 !!  This 11 day streak does not even include the back to back days of 101 after July 4th !! 

And the other one is in 2002 when we had an 8 day hot streak followed by a 9 day hot streak 6 days later !!

1977 I remember because of the big blackout, 9 days 90+ and 3 days 100+ including a 104 !!

 

I really wish I was around in 1953 to see two monumental heatwaves, a 7 day and a historic 12 day heatwave with a total of 4 days of 100+ including a 102 in September the all time record !!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at this,  I'm privileged enough to remember these summers.  1993 had the hottest period of my life time.  It was the first summer I started using air conditioning here.  Look at this absolutely amazing streak of 10 days of 90+ and 3 days of 100+ something I am reasonably confident we'll never see again in our lifetime.  The amazing thing about the last two days of the 1993 streak is they happened AFTER a cold front had passed through.  90 and dry actually felt COLD

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row (through March 10)
Days	Dates	Temperatures
12	August 24 - Sept 4, 1953	91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90
11	July 23 - August 2, 1999	92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90
10	July 7 - 16, 1993 August 4 - 13, 1896	98,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90 90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,90
9	August 11 - 19, 2002 July 13 - 21, 1977 July 6 - 14, 1966 July 5 - 13, 1944	92,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94 93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104 91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95 93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,91
8	July 29 - August 5, 2002 August 2 - 9, 1980 August 28 - Sept 4, 1973 August 10 - 17, 1944 June 26 - July 3, 1901	96, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91 91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95 98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95 91,91,93,95,95,100,100,94
7	July 29 - August 4, 1995 August 9 - 15, 1998 July 15 - 21, 1991 July 12 - 18, 1983 July 7 - 13, 1981 August 1 - 7, 1955 July 15 - 21, 1953	93, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96 93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97 90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102 94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97 94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93 98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93 92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90

I’m just old enough to remember 93. My parents house in south wantagh had no AC except in my parents bedroom. So my sis and I would sleep on the floor in there during especially hot nights. The rest of the house was so hot it was probably dangerous. Since we were only a few blocks from the bay those nights were rare expect that summer.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. But it does look like 90° potential will probably wait until after the Memorial Day weekend.

While recent years had under 40 days at Newark with the first 90° holding off until after June 1st, the last time the first 90° getting delayed into June reached 40 days was 1983. But that was after a super El Niño winter and not a La Niña like this year.

The real test will probably come during the last week of May which is beyond the 15 day model range. If a 90° day can’t sneak in that week, then the chances for Newark reaching 40 days this year could be diminished based on the past. 
 

All years at Newark with 40 days reaching 90° and the 1st 90° day

2010….54….4-7

2022….49….5-21

1993…..49….5-9

1988….43…..5-31

2021....41……5-19

1991….41……5-12

2016...40…..5-25

1983…40…..6-12

1959….40…..5-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

The current pattern as shown by all of the models doesn't bode well for heat. This pattern would have to break completely to allow heat to get into the NYC Metro Region. Yes, some mid 80s days are possible but here's the problem. You still have a very active west to east flow of low pressure systems and the jet stream and out ahead of them/it the heat gets wrapped around into Canada while copious moisture builds northward and northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico and off of the east coast respectively. So it's over the top heat until further notice. If you're in Ontario or nw NY State even parts of northern New England you can see a day here and there of heat. But in the big cities of the northeast it's nearly impossible especially with high pressure tending to stall over the offshore waters of New England. That's right, no Bermuda HP instead HP over the NE coastal waters.  Were this pattern longterm I'd think we'd see near normal temps and above normal rainfall in NYC for the next 2 months. If the pattern breaks we probably will see heat. If and when that happens is anybody's guess.

WX/PT

[steve392]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m just old enough to remember 93. My parents house in south wantagh had no AC except in my parents bedroom. So my sis and I would sleep on the floor in there during especially hot nights. The rest of the house was so hot it was probably dangerous. Since we were only a few blocks from the bay those nights were rare expect that summer.

If this is the summer i remember, my parents had 1 a/c in their bedroom. They crammed 5 of us into that small bedroom, 3 kids on floor.  i had the mlb allstar game on mute watching it.

[nycwinter]

ny reservoirs are at 101.4% capacity..

[nycwinter]

it was a beautiful day when i went out this morning temps in mid 50's very gusty breeze almost lost my hat a few times..

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m just old enough to remember 93. My parents house in south wantagh had no AC except in my parents bedroom. So my sis and I would sleep on the floor in there during especially hot nights. The rest of the house was so hot it was probably dangerous. Since we were only a few blocks from the bay those nights were rare expect that summer.

Yes, it was in the 90s even inside my house.  I remember that day it hit 102 in the city and 101 at JFK, it was the third straight for the city and second straight for JFK, on a Saturday, and the sun looked orange.  My dad was gardening outside and when I went out there with him, I asked him how he could garden with no breeze and an orange sun beating down lol. I woke up at 9 am it was already 92 degrees at 9 am at JFK, that's how I knew we were in for a historic day.

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The current pattern as shown by all of the models doesn't bode well for heat. This pattern would have to break completely to allow heat to get into the NYC Metro Region. Yes, some mid 80s days are possible but here's the problem. You still have a very active west to east flow of low pressure systems and the jet stream and out ahead of them/it the heat gets wrapped around into Canada while copious moisture builds northward and northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico and off of the east coast respectively. So it's over the top heat until further notice. If you're in Ontario or nw NY State even parts of northern New England you can see a day here and there of heat. But in the big cities of the northeast it's nearly impossible especially with high pressure tending to stall over the offshore waters of New England. That's right, no Bermuda HP instead HP over the NE coastal waters.  Were this pattern longterm I'd think we'd see near normal temps and above normal rainfall in NYC for the next 2 months. If the pattern breaks we probably will see heat. If and when that happens is anybody's guess.

WX/PT

Isn't this the same pattern we had in the winter?

 

[FPizz]

16 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I got 0.26" here. This after getting only 0.75" from that Thursday through Sunday wet period. My area keeps missing out on the big rain totals, but at least it has been enough to water the vegetable garden over the last week. My tomatoes are growing very quickly. 

Funny, had almost the opposite.  .98 this time, .28 last storm

[qg_omega]

Last week at this time looked like 80s this upcoming week, reality is clouds and rain

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

We have been due for a crappy Memorial Day weekend. Looking more likely now.