2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

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On 9/20/2025 at 11:53 AM, weathafella said:

I think this validates what I said-no longer east based but more basin wide and weak.  Probably will be less of a factor in terms of predictability of the season this year.

No; it invalidates it. The eastern zone of 1.2 began warm and the subsurface cold pool emerged there.

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On 9/19/2025 at 1:51 PM, weatherwiz said:

Also keep in mind 1.2 is the most volatile region so when assessing changes in SST structure you must factor in what the contributions are to that.

Yes, I think Jerry is focusing on region 3...while 1.2 is volatile....this marked cooling in that zone isn't a function of volatility. If you have been paying attention, the subsurface cold pool emerged due to sustained trades.

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Also, if you look at guidance, this has been expected and well forecast.

 

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Now, maybe these trends reverse and guidance will be wrong, but that is not what we are seeing now. It's not becoming less east-based.

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Region 1.2 has warmed again, speakaing to the volatility that Paul mentioned, but the subsurface remains supportive of an east-biased event.