2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[weathafella]

The NPAC is kind of delicious.

[8611Blizz]

[brooklynwx99]

On 9/7/2025 at 12:48 PM, weathafella said:

The NPAC is kind of delicious.

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

At a glance that’s looking like 2013-2014

for the record … the sfc wind stressing associated with larger atmospheric circulation mode sets this in motion/emergence. The SSTs aren’t driving the winter pattern tendency - it’s an indicator for governing circulation biases; whatever causes the one is causing the other

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

At a glance that’s looking like 2013-2014

for the record … the sfc wind stressing associated with larger atmospheric circulation mode sets this in motion/emergence. The SSTs aren’t driving the winter pattern tendency - it’s an indicator for governing circulation biases; whatever causes the one is causing the other

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TTckZoXETGk

 

2013-2014 is an analog for many

[FXWX]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TTckZoXETGk

 

2013-2014 is an analog for many

The "great analog song" has been sung many times in recent years to no avail!  Relying on the look of the SST layout in early Sept is not high on my list...

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, FXWX said:

The "great analog song" has been sung many times in recent years to no avail!  Relying on the look of the SST layout in early Sept is not high on my list...

The overall tenor for a big winter we're currently dancing to from the social media speakers is emerging out of the CPM:   "crowd physics model" 

For me anywho, it can't be geo-physical.  There are certain aspects that are not refutable.  The recent 10 or so year's worth of winters have rattled the out-of-classical-box teleconnector scaffolding: air and seas. These winters are showing a consistent shear stressed, mid and upper level velocity saturated hemisphere, regardless of the aforementioned states.  Also, a time span in which I've read a lot of peer reviewed material elucidating these behavioral changes as both directly observed, and CC-attributable.  

That is not going away.  Certainly not because crowd noise is resonating to some emerged popularity tempo.

You're not asking me...  but, I've mentioned recently that I do feel low confident for an early loaded either winter, or perhaps pattern that's quasi winter oriented... latter November through Dec. Emphasis on low confidence.  The primary logic behind that is the science of increasing frequency of transient blocking during shoulder seasons. These are creating early and late "cold meanders"/vortex displacements.  This happens in winter ( DJF ), but I'm seeing this as kicking in during Octobers and as late as May, if perhaps subtly but enough to distribute cool anomalies and cryo-supportive air mass events into mid latitudes.   Articles are out there being dropped occasionally...   https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq9557  

Otherwise, I've seen other articles about the increased jet wind speeds, too - bit of separate consequence conjecture/science.  It's an aspect you and I have discussed anecdotally in the past, and then the conjecture emerges in peer reviewal ..so - tfwiw.  It's real, and the increased speed is causing resonate instability at all wave scales - teleconnectors are more unstable. We can certainly set up a 2015/Feb resonate look still, but there may be a reason why it's taken 10 years and we haven't really seen much more stable set ins. The knee jerk argument is that 2015 is a rare outlier, but the evades the point of time.  This is different than the 1980s ( for example).  The 1980s was longer lasting resonance that was not good much of the time.  We're now getting screwed more and more in recent years because of behavioral aberrance.  It's different.  

This is the other side of the same large variance coin that's been noted all over the world.   Regions can be -20C, and then +20C, in the same month in 1955... but less frequently.  And the beat goes on... 

Thus, I wouldn't guess (if) an early winter-like regime ( or perhaps a couple of them) characterized the Thanks Giggedy to Jan 10 span occurring, would characterize the whole way. 

Still, a 2013-2014 analog may be incidental.  I noted in that SST comparison - though likely missed... - that the SST anomaly distribution up there in the NE Pac is not driving the weather pattern base-state.  It is in fact the weather pattern's quasi coupling ( via sea surface wind stress distribution) that eventually accumulates or dissipates those cool/warm periods.  It just so happens to be, that coincides/correlates with NW cold loading through Canada, around a planetary wave signature - more obvious in winter ... but, August being cooler?  worth the consideration.  If that persists, the early winter would also fit that.  So these are some "modestly" compelling leading circumstances.    As an aside, I also like the fact that the nadir of the sea-ice loss in the arctic shallowed considerably over recent years:  https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/6/2025 at 8:54 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It really should considering the pacific Inferno… That’s probably a complete response to that forcing in the climate models.  
… Frankly, I’m leaning towards some kind of an early loaded winter or quasi winter pattern … Something like November 15 through January 30 mid January at some point, but I don’t think it necessarily reloads midwinter on…

 

I think that will be dependent on the stratosphere.....seeing potential for a mid winter event, which would trigger a reload.

[George001]

20 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

This is the most excited I have been about an upcoming winter since probably 21-22. East based La Niña AND that warm pool off the WC and in the GOA??? I like the look of that. 

[FXWX]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The overall tenor for a big winter we're currently dancing to from the social media speakers is emerging out of the CPM:   "crowd physics model" 

For me anywho, it can't be geo-physical.  There are certain aspects that are not refutable.  The recent 10 or so year's worth of winters have rattled the out-of-classical-box teleconnector scaffolding: air and seas. These winters are showing a consistent shear stressed, mid and upper level velocity saturated hemisphere, regardless of the aforementioned states.  Also, a time span in which I've read a lot of peer reviewed material elucidating these behavioral changes as both directly observed, and CC-attributable.  

That is not going away.  Certainly not because crowd noise is resonating to some emerged popularity tempo.

You're not asking me...  but, I've mentioned recently that I do feel low confident for an early loaded either winter, or perhaps pattern that's quasi winter oriented... latter November through Dec. Emphasis on low confidence.  The primary logic behind that is the science of increasing frequency of transient blocking during shoulder seasons. These are creating early and late "cold meanders"/vortex displacements.  This happens in winter ( DJF ), but I'm seeing this as kicking in during Octobers and as late as May, if perhaps subtly but enough to distribute cool anomalies and cryo-supportive air mass events into mid latitudes.   Articles are out there being dropped occasionally...   https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq9557  

Otherwise, I've seen other articles about the increased jet wind speeds, too - bit of separate consequence conjecture/science.  It's an aspect you and I have discussed anecdotally in the past, and then the conjecture emerges in peer reviewal ..so - tfwiw.  It's real, and the increased speed is causing resonate instability at all wave scales - teleconnectors are more unstable. We can certainly set up a 2015/Feb resonate look still, but there may be a reason why it's taken 10 years and we haven't really seen much more stable set ins. The knee jerk argument is that 2015 is a rare outlier, but the evades the point of time.  This is different than the 1980s ( for example).  The 1980s was longer lasting resonance that was not good much of the time.  We're now getting screwed more and more in recent years because of behavioral aberrance.  It's different.  

This is the other side of the same large variance coin that's been noted all over the world.   Regions can be -20C, and then +20C, in the same month in 1955... but less frequently.  And the beat goes on... 

Thus, I wouldn't guess (if) an early winter-like regime ( or perhaps a couple of them) characterized the Thanks Giggedy to Jan 10 span occurring, would characterize the whole way. 

Still, a 2013-2014 analog may be incidental.  I noted in that SST comparison - though likely missed... - that the SST anomaly distribution up there in the NE Pac is not driving the weather pattern base-state.  It is in fact the weather pattern's quasi coupling ( via sea surface wind stress distribution) that eventually accumulates or dissipates those cool/warm periods.  It just so happens to be, that coincides/correlates with NW cold loading through Canada, around a planetary wave signature - more obvious in winter ... but, August being cooler?  worth the consideration.  If that persists, the early winter would also fit that.  So these are some "modestly" compelling leading circumstances.    As an aside, I also like the fact that the nadir of the sea-ice loss in the arctic shallowed considerably over recent years:  https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh 

Thanks for the detailed thoughts Tip... I think the "if that persist" comment cannot be understated.  Over the years I've seen massive changes for the northeast Pacific sst profile moving from early fall into early / mid winter.  It's rarely static.  Also we occasionally see some folks thinking the sst configuration (in this case the warm pool in the northeast Pacific) drives the pattern, when as you stated, it is an artifact of larger atmospheric features/patterns.  I do think you are probably correct about an early onset compared to some recent winters.  Of course, intensity and staying power very uncertain.  Hints of this occurring should show up in early October, if it's going to happen?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Thanks for the detailed thoughts Tip... I think the "if that persist" comment cannot be understated.  Over the years I've seen massive changes for the northeast Pacific sst profile moving from early fall into early / mid winter.  It's rarely static.  Also we occasionally see some folks thinking the sst configuration (in this case the warm pool in the northeast Pacific) drives the pattern, when as you stated, it is an artifact of larger atmospheric features/patterns.  I do think you are probably correct about an early onset compared to some recent winters.  Of course, intensity and staying power very uncertain.  Hints of this occurring should show up in early October, if it's going to happen?

This. I can't state this enough. Maybe you can argue there's a small feedback, but any larger scale shift due to MJO etc will just overwhelm the warm or cool pool.

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This. I can't state this enough. Maybe you can argue there's a small feedback, but any larger scale shift due to MJO etc will just overwhelm the warm or cool pool.

I think ORH has pointed out that the bright reds make people think it is all warm and juicy...but in reality, it is still friggin cold water.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This. I can't state this enough. Maybe you can argue there's a small feedback, but any larger scale shift due to MJO etc will just overwhelm the warm or cool pool.

This also what I am alluding to when I tell folks to not obsess over the absolute PDO value, as it's the trend that is more important. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Decent snow for December on the EURO

[40/70 Benchmark]

January blows

[40/70 Benchmark]

UK with the same gradient we have seen for the past several years, just north of my hood....I'll remove my spleen with a pair of pliers if this happens again.

[CoastalWx]

I like the soutern US anomalies again.    Lets get a snowy NNE and srn US and porked in SNE.

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January blows

Cansips look good

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK with the same gradient we have seen for the past several years, just north of my hood....I'll remove my spleen with a pair of pliers if this happens again.

Ha ha...  without even a local, either. 

no but but seriously, it's like they ran this frame from my cellar.  I've been ruminating - much to the chagrin of others ... - that I don't see how/why the wind scarped, shear stressed, resonance failing high variance winters of the last 10 years won't simply repeat, despite all leading indicators and that most confidence inspiring metric off all:  spontaneous crowd physics emerged cause for exuberance.

LOL   If you can ferret out some usefulness in that super nova of adjectives, it goes something like a repeat of recency.  But yeah... I mean not in an absolute sense.  Tendency to do so... 

I think our best shot at avoiding that absoluteness ... would be the ~ mid Nov to early Jan span.   After that ... we'll see on the SSW/AO modulation stuff - I have to tell you though ...I am one of the original SSW guys from 20 years ago. I used to hammer the theoretical side, replete with graphical displays and annotated charts.   I have since toned it down, however ... Because, I've noticed over the years that despite the correlation between (specifically...) down-welling stratospheric warm plumes ( i.e., not merely having a warm plume present - huge comprehension problem with this still exists ...), the -AO response then has a less correlative forcing on the temperature distribution at mid latitudes. Note, less does not mean no - it implies not all -AO's have the same talent. 

This is a-priori evidenced in the fact that there's a maelstrom of mid and lower latitude teleconnectors that come along with their own capacity to overwhelm.  That can mean everything from a general offset, to forcing events over in Asia.. .etc..   Basically, we need to have a constructive interference after the fact of a down-welling AO, to really make it useful/correlate to our wintry results. Otherwise, the transience of the -AO response can come and go with variable actual fruit to bear.  The other aspect is that these SSWs and or just warm intrusions at higher latitude, seem to happening later in the seasons - not enough data for confidence here.

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the soutern US anomalies again.    Lets get a snowy NNE and srn US and porked in SNE.

As I've gotten on into middle age-dom, my winter anticipation has changed. I'm not just like this guy at the mere thought of winter anymore.  There's all kinds of rules now. 

Like, if it is going to be a perpetual 44 F with wind over bare earth boning?  Leave the region and don't leave any forwarding contact information - it doesn't exist while gone. Out of sight. Out of mind. Even if there's a threat in there some-whence, it's too late.   No interest.  Winter is hell.   F you! Complete ghosting of New England

However, if winter is actually going to perform like a Rockwellian nostalgia?   I'm all in.   

The problem is, due to CC's one-eyed bum monster, the boning option is probabilistically favored.   <-- that simple sentence causes internet fights, but when the dust settles, it's still unfortunately true. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha...  without even a local, either. 

no but but seriously, it's like they ran this frame from my cellar.  I've been ruminating - much to the chagrin of others ... - that I don't see how/why the wind scarped, shear stressed, resonance failing high variance winters of the last 10 years won't simply repeat, despite all leading indicators and that most confidence inspiring metric off all:  spontaneous crowd physics emerged cause for exuberance.

LOL   If you can ferret out some usefulness in that super nova of adjectives, it goes something like a repeat of recency.  But yeah... I mean not in an absolute sense.  Tendency to do so... 

I think our best shot at avoiding that absoluteness ... would be the ~ mid Nov to early Jan span.   After that ... we'll see on the SSW/AO modulation stuff - I have to tell you though ...I am one of the original SSW guys from 20 years ago. I used to hammer the theoretical side, replete with graphical displays and annotated charts.   I have since toned it down, however ... Because, I've noticed over the years that despite the correlation between (specifically...) down-welling stratospheric warm plumes ( i.e., not merely having a warm plume present - huge comprehension problem with this still exists ...), the -AO response then has a less correlative forcing on the temperature distribution at mid latitudes. Note, less does not mean no - it implies not all -AO's have the same talent. 

This is a-priori evidenced in the fact that there's a maelstrom of mid and lower latitude teleconnectors that come along with their own capacity to overwhelm.  That can mean everything from a general offset, to forcing events over in Asia.. .etc..   Basically, we need to have a constructive interference after the fact of a down-welling AO, to really make it useful/correlate to our wintry results. Otherwise, the transience of the -AO response can come and go with variable actual fruit to bear.  The other aspect is that these SSWs and or just warm intrusions at higher latitude, seem to happening later in the seasons - not enough data for confidence here.

SSWs are no sure-thing...agreed. They are a wild card, but I think at this point, most of us are willing to flip that coin.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK with the same gradient we have seen for the past several years, just north of my hood....I'll remove my spleen with a pair of pliers if this happens again.

Great.  I can't wait to see daily pics of Powderfreaks friggin snowstick.

[MJO812]