2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[weathafella]

The NPAC is kind of delicious.

[8611Blizz]

[brooklynwx99]

On 9/7/2025 at 12:48 PM, weathafella said:

The NPAC is kind of delicious.

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

At a glance that’s looking like 2013-2014

for the record … the sfc wind stressing associated with larger atmospheric circulation mode sets this in motion/emergence. The SSTs aren’t driving the winter pattern tendency - it’s an indicator for governing circulation biases; whatever causes the one is causing the other

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

At a glance that’s looking like 2013-2014

for the record … the sfc wind stressing associated with larger atmospheric circulation mode sets this in motion/emergence. The SSTs aren’t driving the winter pattern tendency - it’s an indicator for governing circulation biases; whatever causes the one is causing the other

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TTckZoXETGk

 

2013-2014 is an analog for many

[FXWX]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TTckZoXETGk

 

2013-2014 is an analog for many

The "great analog song" has been sung many times in recent years to no avail!  Relying on the look of the SST layout in early Sept is not high on my list...