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April 2025 Discussion/Obs


Rjay
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Today was another warm day before the sea breeze pushed in. Temperatures rose into the 70s across much of the area.

The warm weather will continue through the week. It will turn somewhat cooler but remain mild during the weekend. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend. Sunday will also be the coolest day with readings topping out in the lower and middle 60s.

Temperatures will rebound into the 70s early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -5.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.666 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

 

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The Soviet Union was horrible but they weren't even remotely close to socialism. China is also pretty bad but not anywhere close to the system I envision.

The Nordic nations are at the top of every benchmark, including life expectancy.  Those are the best, and they don't use corrupt crony capitalism like this cesspool of a nation does.  A mixed economy is the best system.

The US is very mediocre in every way.

If you’re not afraid of socialism, you can’t be afraid of anything.  Humans don’t do well under socialism. People have different desires, whims, goals, tastes, religions, etc. and socialism doesn’t allow for that, so you get concentration camps and gulags.  Like in China and North Korea.  Everyone is supposed to be equal (poor), or more equal (the communist party members).  
 

there is a lot of heavy industry up there in the nordics, and Norway is as much a petro state as any with few peers. The largest gas rigs on esrth are norwegian. Also, Sweden has the second highest per capita murder rate in Europe.  Behind Albania.  Paradise is elsewhere.

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3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

If you’re not afraid of socialism, you can’t be afraid of anything.  Humans don’t do well under socialism. People have different desires, whims, goals, tastes, religions, etc. and socialism doesn’t allow for that, so you get concentration camps and gulags.  Like in China and North Korea.  Everyone is supposed to be equal (poor), or more equal (the communist party members).  
 

there is a lot of heavy industry up there in the nordics, and Norway is as much a petro state as any with few peers. The largest gas rigs on esrth are norwegian. Also, Sweden has the second highest per capita murder rate in Europe.  Behind Albania.  Paradise is elsewhere.

China and Korea aren't socialist, they're authoritarian. There's never been a socialist country. 

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Another day with stronger winds gusting over 30 mph. So areas near the shore stayed cooler. It’s interesting that the strongest winds wound up near Newark again. 
 

Peak wind gusts 4-24

EWR….36 mph

LGA…..27 mph

JFK…..28 mph

ISP……26 mph

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another day with stronger winds gusting over 30 mph. So areas near the shore stayed cooler. It’s interesting that the strongest winds wound up near Newark again. 
 

Peak wind gusts 4-24

EWR….36 mph

LGA…..27 mph

JFK…..28 mph

ISP……26 mph

It definitely wasn’t an Ambrose jet event. In fact for most of the afternoon the wind was light east. Data from 44065 ny harbor buoy 

 

IMG_3292.png

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17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It definitely wasn’t an Ambrose jet event. In fact for most of the afternoon the wind was light east. Data from 44065 ny harbor buoy 

 

IMG_3292.png

The Ambrose Jet kicked in around 5 to 6 pm. But the afternoon initial SE flow delayed it a bit. Even though the Ambrose Jet typically peaks between 4-7pm

JFK hourly data

Apr 24, 6:25 pm 64 46 52   S 21G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:20 pm 64 46 52   S 20G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:15 pm 64 46 52   S 20G25 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:10 pm 64 46 52   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:05 pm 64 46 52   S 17G24 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:00 pm 63 44 52   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:55 pm 63 44 52   S 18G24 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:51 pm 63 45 52   S 18 10.00   BKN250  1023.70 30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:50 pm 63 44 52   S 18 10.00       30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:45 pm 63 44 52   S 20 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:40 pm 64 44 49   S 21 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:35 pm 64 44 49   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:30 pm 64 44 49   S 20G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:25 pm 64 44 49   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:20 pm 66 45 46   S 20G25 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:15 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:10 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 5:05 pm 66 45 46   S 17G25 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 5:00 pm         S 18G24 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:55 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:51 pm 67 46 47   S 17 10.00   FEW060 BKN250  1024.10 30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:50 pm 66 46 49   S 16G22 10.00   FEW060   
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12 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

If you’re not afraid of socialism, you can’t be afraid of anything.  Humans don’t do well under socialism. People have different desires, whims, goals, tastes, religions, etc. and socialism doesn’t allow for that, so you get concentration camps and gulags.  Like in China and North Korea.  Everyone is supposed to be equal (poor), or more equal (the communist party members).  
 

there is a lot of heavy industry up there in the nordics, and Norway is as much a petro state as any with few peers. The largest gas rigs on esrth are norwegian. Also, Sweden has the second highest per capita murder rate in Europe.  Behind Albania.  Paradise is elsewhere.

It's temporary, Norway is also the fastest in switching to EVs.  Sweden is too conservative for my taste.  The nations I look at are Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark.  Finland would be my number 1, they are at the top of almost every metric, including happiness.

I'm more afraid of oligarchy than I am of socialism.  Oligarchy is much worse and that's what this country has been turning into for awhile now.

 

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Just now, Dark Star said:

There are, but you may not like how they are run...

Oligarchies are worse

 

This is the American oligarchy 

https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

https://act.represent.us/sign/usa-oligarchy-research-explained

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Ambrose Jet kicked in around 5 to 6 pm. But the afternoon initial SE flow delayed it a bit. Even though the Ambrose Jet typically peaks between 4-7pm

JFK hourly data

 

Apr 24, 6:25 pm 64 46 52   S 21G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:20 pm 64 46 52   S 20G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:15 pm 64 46 52   S 20G25 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:10 pm 64 46 52   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:05 pm 64 46 52   S 17G24 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:00 pm 63 44 52   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:55 pm 63 44 52   S 18G24 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:51 pm 63 45 52   S 18 10.00   BKN250  1023.70 30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:50 pm 63 44 52   S 18 10.00       30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:45 pm 63 44 52   S 20 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:40 pm 64 44 49   S 21 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:35 pm 64 44 49   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:30 pm 64 44 49   S 20G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:25 pm 64 44 49   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:20 pm 66 45 46   S 20G25 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:15 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:10 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 5:05 pm 66 45 46   S 17G25 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 5:00 pm         S 18G24 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:55 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:51 pm 67 46 47   S 17 10.00   FEW060 BKN250  1024.10 30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:50 pm 66 46 49   S 16G22 10.00   FEW060   

Thats when we want to kick in after the highs for the day have already happened.

It doesn't need to be here before 5 pm

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23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Leaves really popping here with the recent warmth.    Seems a bit earlier than usual

Everything seems about normal here.  I noticed a decent amount of shrubs around the neighborhood are dead.  Maybe the drier fall/winter attributed to that, along with 4 days going below zero?  I have to replace 2.  

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1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Everything seems about normal here.  I noticed a decent amount of shrubs around the neighborhood are dead.  Maybe the drier fall/winter attributed to that, along with 4 days going below zero?  I have to replace 2.  

the cherry tree in my back yard has just  blossomed with pink flowers :)

 

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9 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Everything seems about normal here.  I noticed a decent amount of shrubs around the neighborhood are dead.  Maybe the drier fall/winter attributed to that, along with 4 days going below zero?  I have to replace 2.  

alot of that here too-probably a combo of dry-then cold and windy which further puts stress on the shrub.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the cherry tree in my back yard has just  blossomed with pink flowers :)

 

The cherry trees here are beautiful.  My neighbor has several mature ones and I'm a bit jealous of them.  I wish I could uproot one and pop it in my lawn somewhere, haha.  But, my weeping cherries, dogwood, eastern redbuds, pear and magnolias are all popping now.  Only bad thing is besides one magnolia, all are pretty young trees that we planted over the past 8 years here.  

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Ambrose Jet kicked in around 5 to 6 pm. But the afternoon initial SE flow delayed it a bit. Even though the Ambrose Jet typically peaks between 4-7pm

JFK hourly data

 

Apr 24, 6:25 pm 64 46 52   S 21G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:20 pm 64 46 52   S 20G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:15 pm 64 46 52   S 20G25 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:10 pm 64 46 52   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:05 pm 64 46 52   S 17G24 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 6:00 pm 63 44 52   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:55 pm 63 44 52   S 18G24 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:51 pm 63 45 52   S 18 10.00   BKN250  1023.70 30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:50 pm 63 44 52   S 18 10.00       30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:45 pm 63 44 52   S 20 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:40 pm 64 44 49   S 21 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:35 pm 64 44 49   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:30 pm 64 44 49   S 20G26 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:25 pm 64 44 49   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:20 pm 66 45 46   S 20G25 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:15 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.22 30.23        
Apr 24, 5:10 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 5:05 pm 66 45 46   S 17G25 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 5:00 pm         S 18G24 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:55 pm 66 45 46   S 18 10.00   CLR    30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:51 pm 67 46 47   S 17 10.00   FEW060 BKN250  1024.10 30.23 30.24        
Apr 24, 4:50 pm 66 46 49   S 16G22 10.00   FEW060   

I guess it was more of a delayed rather then denied situation. As far as practical feel for the day, it was more like a day without it, as the afternoon was relatively mild and calm which isn’t what I think of when I think of Ambrose jet type days. Part of what makes weather so fascinating to me, I agreed with you yesterday morning that it had the hallmarks, then I’m sitting in my dads backyard in south wantagh yesterday afternoon, thinking where the F is the wind!!!! It’s a pretty simple phenomenon, heat up the land and drop the pressure compared to the relatively higher pressure over the cold water. Well yesterday had that big time, lots of solar radiation, and below normal mid spring water temps. 

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12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Everything seems about normal here.  I noticed a decent amount of shrubs around the neighborhood are dead.  Maybe the drier fall/winter attributed to that, along with 4 days going below zero?  I have to replace 2.  

Were they broad leaf evergreens? They are very prone to burning during cold winds. This winter had a ton of that. If they weren’t it was probably stress from the drought last fall. 

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