E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion

[Birds~69]

I guess we get screwed out of seeing Haley's Comet debris/showers in the  early morning hours pre dawn tomorrow due to cloudy skies...

[RedSky]

Did the Atlantic dry up in the drought why is there little moisture with a southeast fetch

[RedSky]

Still a precipitation black hole in southern Chester County, amazing stuff

 

[Birds~69]

Radar showing a little pulse...

66F/DP 63F

[RedSky]

Steady rain shower 

[ChescoWx]

0.23" of rain since this morning here in East Nantmeal this brings our 3 day total up to 1.51" of rain.

[LVLion77]

Well, Sunday and Monday were highly inaccurate forecasts with 0.08” yesterday and a 0.00 today. Still convinced the east wind has stabilized the atmosphere to the point that heavy showers and tstorms are unable to form in this quadrant of this system. We go to a more southerly flow on Tuesday, which should be more conducive to heavier rain.

[RedSky]

.20" Monday 

2.40" total

 

[JTA66]

Picked up .90” early this morning.

[ChescoWx]

A 4th consecutive day of showers with .09" since midnight. We have now picked up 1.67" since Saturday. Some more showers and even a PM thunderstorm in spots today. Rain chances diminish tonight but pick back up again by Thursday afternoon and evening. We finally clear out by the weekend. Chillier temperatures on Saturday but a nice warmup by Mother's Day.

[Albedoman]

9 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

Well, Sunday and Monday were highly inaccurate forecasts with 0.08” yesterday and a 0.00 today. Still convinced the east wind has stabilized the atmosphere to the point that heavy showers and tstorms are unable to form in this quadrant of this system. We go to a more southerly flow on Tuesday, which should be more conducive to heavier rain.

absolutely agree. Forecast models have continually failed with wind speed and direction since last year.  The LR and even the SR computer models need to be calibrated to not just look at temps and precip atmospheric profiles and soundings but should consider the most critical feature- the role of surface topography and overall natural physical geography of our area. 

For example when a SE to S direction fetch of wind is prevalent for hours or days, the models should compare the geography of the area and bias should be added for chances of higher precip values(especially in training t-storms or froneneis for snowfall predictions )  in certain regions of the entire forecast area for MT Holly.  The same goes with a direct east wind in which literally prevents t storms from from the west to cross over the Blue Mts. Physical Geography features plays a vital part in local forecasting for our area and atmospheric modeling needs to be vastly improved to include and or be more accurately biased when using pin point forecasting, especially with wind direction speed for upsloping and downsloping of the mountain ranges and deeper valleys.  Simplistic terms- need a better algorithm for physical geography features rather than just using transportation networks to identify different forecasts for different aras. Thats why Macungie to Huffs Church area are constantly having inaccurate forecasting  for either high or low temps and or precip values and types  because the pin-point forecast do not include the topography for S Mtn range as a dividing line for precip or for different forecasts.  Everything is now based on I-78, I-80 and PA turnpike transportation areas when formulating and discussing the local forecasts.

IMHO, MT Holly /NOAA needs to reconsider relying more on physical geography/topography when discussing LV forecasts and not  just referring to major transportation networks. FWIW, transportation networks literally bore through local mountain ranges by tunnels or by steep climbing lanes and built to go in different directions. I -78 is a perfect example of how dividing forecast areas is incorrect as it goes from SW to NE and then goes directly E to West. It literally bisects the S Mt Range in the heart of the LV.  The NE turnpike is a N to S directional road which is usually only brought into the picture on types of winter precip or from storms along the coast--- yet both of these highways go through the heart of the LV.. Hopefully you see the problem of using transportation networks as delimiting line for producing local forecasts in the LV. 

Best examples of my reasoning- how many times have you personally gone through the Lehigh Tunnel and on one side it is snowing and the other side it is clear?  How many times have you gone on RT 29/Rt 100 through  Shimerville or Huffs Church and it has 2 in of snow on the ground  but you get to the Macungie and Emmaus and or East Greenville  and it is raining? Physical Geography plays a vital part in weather  forecasting and personally believe not enough attention has been given to this  fact based on our vast local regional forecasting area that MT Holly must cover.  This is not the fault of the MT Holly staff at all  but federal govt decisions made back in the early 90's to do away with the Allentown weather forecast office at LVIA. This was a huge mistake and I was against  this change but it was a lost cause. The politicians simply did not care or understand the role of physical geography has on the the LV . That is why I am so outspoken at times about the LV. The "fall Line"" basically stops at S MT range and any thing north of that that is also in a valley which has very unique weather forecasting difficulties such as extreme diurnal and nocturnal temp ranges from the deeper valleys especially with upsloping and downsloping conditions in major storm events including wind storms, fog, freezing rain and even snow accumulations. LV is unique. 

[LVblizzard]

Eastern PA just upgraded to a slight risk. Hopefully I can see one good storm because I’m about to leave for my yearly storm chasing vacation tomorrow and the pattern looks abysmal for at least the first half of it.