CheeselandSkies Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Could be looking at some action next week in the northern/western parts of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Day 5 slight risk for much of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 I'm actually looking more at Tuesday evening. 00Z NAM moves an organized convective system through a strongly unstable environment in E IA/S WI/N IL Tuesday afternoon with what looks like some potential for supercells along the southern flank of it. These setups are always finicky with timing/placement of subtle shortwaves and associated MCS's which are crucial to determining the existence/placement of any chase-worthy threat. Often can't pin them down until the evening before at the earliest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Day-2 30% hail (hatched) outlook for the Twin Cities Quote A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 5 hours ago, Stebo said: Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well. Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 22 minutes ago, roardog said: Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. Saturday has my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 would take the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would take the 12z euro I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would take the 12z euro Without looking back at the specifics from that time I feel like the 12Z euro almost has a July ‘95 look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Will be camping in Maple City MI this weekend. Bring the sky booms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16 Author Share Posted June 16 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know. which day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: which day? Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16 Author Share Posted June 16 17 minutes ago, Stebo said: Wednesday personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback. a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Just now, Chicago Storm said: personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback. a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years. There is some feedback, but its not necessarily incorrect, as you mention with an MCV it can modulate the wind fields much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 I've started a thread for the week: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted yesterday at 02:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:05 AM Big tornado in North Dakota right now: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM Bemidji Minnesota gusted to 106mph last night. Have to imagine there is extensive tree damage up there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago On 6/21/2025 at 9:56 AM, OrdIowPitMsp said: Bemidji Minnesota gusted to 106mph last night. Have to imagine there is extensive tree damage up there. they got whacked pretty good, and the airport got thoroughly tossed. friend of mine has been posting pics. he expects to be out of power for a couple days yet. the extent of damage shown on KSTP, MPR, facebook is impressive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Ten years ago OTD. Coal City/Braidwood, IL EF3 along with another EF3 in southeastern Iowa and several EF2s including the one that impacted the Woodhaven Lakes campground near Sublette (hit again, also EF2, during the outbreak of 3/31/23). I would have been able to see that one and the following EF1 in Mendota had they not been completely rain-wrapped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago ^ Remember that day as well. Followed it from the MS river to southeast of Sterling. Was on it while it was producing the Harmon tor in that area, but was wrapped up pretty good unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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