CheeselandSkies Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Could be looking at some action next week in the northern/western parts of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Day 5 slight risk for much of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 I'm actually looking more at Tuesday evening. 00Z NAM moves an organized convective system through a strongly unstable environment in E IA/S WI/N IL Tuesday afternoon with what looks like some potential for supercells along the southern flank of it. These setups are always finicky with timing/placement of subtle shortwaves and associated MCS's which are crucial to determining the existence/placement of any chase-worthy threat. Often can't pin them down until the evening before at the earliest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM Day-2 30% hail (hatched) outlook for the Twin Cities Quote A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted Monday at 11:54 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:54 AM Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Monday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:25 PM 5 hours ago, Stebo said: Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well. Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted Monday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:48 PM 22 minutes ago, roardog said: Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. Saturday has my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Monday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 PM would take the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted Monday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:07 PM 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would take the 12z euro I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Monday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:22 PM 23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would take the 12z euro Without looking back at the specifics from that time I feel like the 12Z euro almost has a July ‘95 look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted Monday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:07 PM Will be camping in Maple City MI this weekend. Bring the sky booms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted Monday at 07:17 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:17 PM 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know. which day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted Monday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:20 PM 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: which day? Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted Monday at 07:40 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:40 PM 17 minutes ago, Stebo said: Wednesday personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback. a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted Monday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:41 PM Just now, Chicago Storm said: personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback. a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years. There is some feedback, but its not necessarily incorrect, as you mention with an MCV it can modulate the wind fields much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:26 PM I've started a thread for the week: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Big tornado in North Dakota right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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