2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

Could be looking at some action next week in the northern/western parts of the sub.

[sbnwx85]

Day 5 slight risk for much of us.

[CheeselandSkies]

I'm actually looking more at Tuesday evening. 00Z NAM moves an organized convective system through a strongly unstable environment in E IA/S WI/N IL Tuesday afternoon with what looks like some potential for supercells along the southern flank of it. These setups are always finicky with timing/placement of subtle shortwaves and associated MCS's which are crucial to determining the existence/placement of any chase-worthy threat. Often can't pin them down until the evening before at the earliest.

[Chinook]

Day-2 30% hail (hatched) outlook for the Twin Cities

 

Quote

 A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail.
   Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward
   across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and
   northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong
   instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear
   appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail
   threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern
   periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential.

 

[Stebo]

Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well.

[roardog]

5 hours ago, Stebo said:

Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well.

Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. 

[Stebo]

22 minutes ago, roardog said:

Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. 

Saturday has my interest.

[A-L-E-K]

would take the 12z euro

[Stebo]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

would take the 12z euro

I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know.

[roardog]

23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

would take the 12z euro

Without looking back at the specifics from that time I feel like the 12Z euro almost has a July ‘95 look to it.

[King James]

Will be camping in Maple City MI this weekend. Bring the sky booms

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know.

which day?

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

which day?

Wednesday

[Chicago Storm]

17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Wednesday

personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback.

a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years.

[Stebo]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback.

a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years.

There is some feedback, but its not necessarily incorrect, as you mention with an MCV it can modulate the wind fields much stronger.

[sbnwx85]

I've started a thread for the week: