2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

Could be looking at some action next week in the northern/western parts of the sub.

[sbnwx85]

Day 5 slight risk for much of us.

[CheeselandSkies]

I'm actually looking more at Tuesday evening. 00Z NAM moves an organized convective system through a strongly unstable environment in E IA/S WI/N IL Tuesday afternoon with what looks like some potential for supercells along the southern flank of it. These setups are always finicky with timing/placement of subtle shortwaves and associated MCS's which are crucial to determining the existence/placement of any chase-worthy threat. Often can't pin them down until the evening before at the earliest.

[Chinook]

Day-2 30% hail (hatched) outlook for the Twin Cities

 

Quote

 A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail.
   Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward
   across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and
   northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong
   instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear
   appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail
   threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern
   periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential.