Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2025 Share Posted March 4, 2025 Let’s get the ball rolling… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 5, 2025 Share Posted March 5, 2025 6z gfs (and 00z euro) both want to run back another sub-980 low late next week, with more svr possible in the south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2025 Share Posted March 5, 2025 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2025 Share Posted March 5, 2025 Hoping the one later next week has less moisture issues and can at least pull off a respectable cold-core potential somewhere in the region. So much funny stuff has happened in that department in this region absurdly early in the season in recent years (from two consecutive years with a March Iowa EF4 to a 26-mile EF2 in Wisconsin on February 8th) it's almost become an expectation. This week's system was a bit of a reality check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2025 Share Posted March 5, 2025 euro looks active/wet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2025 Author Share Posted March 5, 2025 Just going to leave this here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2025 Author Share Posted March 5, 2025 And this too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 5, 2025 Share Posted March 5, 2025 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Just going to leave this here... Can you please translate for us weather dummies!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 5, 2025 Share Posted March 5, 2025 Would expect some eastern troughing for the last week of March through the beginning of April 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted March 6, 2025 Share Posted March 6, 2025 Can you please translate for us weather dummies!!!mjo moving phases and ssw incoming. potentially more active, cold, and stormier around here (chicago) later into March. (am a weather dummy also, hopefully the professor is proud but prepared for my lashes) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 6, 2025 Share Posted March 6, 2025 4 hours ago, ILSNOW said: Can you please translate for us weather dummies!!! Don't put your winter coats and snow shovels away just yet... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 6, 2025 Share Posted March 6, 2025 Ensemble support as well for a *potential* severe outbreak in the SE and S Ohio River Valley. Will obviously have to watch how this evolves, but seeing SCP values this high 200+ hours out on the gefs is surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 6, 2025 Share Posted March 6, 2025 20 hours ago, ILSNOW said: Can you please translate for us weather dummies!!! The climate changer will be posting on a limited basis. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 6, 2025 Share Posted March 6, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2025 Author Share Posted March 6, 2025 23 hours ago, ILSNOW said: Can you please translate for us weather dummies!!! The GEFS have been superb in handling the MJO over the past 1-2 months, whereas the EPS have struggled quite a bit. So, talking on a pure MJO based view of things... If we can round the bend through phases 4-5-6, it would bode well for those looking for a relatively active pattern and consistent spring conditions. Phase 6 still runs a high above average temp correlation for this time of year, for example. Phases 5-6 are supportive of an active/wetter pattern as well. Now the one thing to watch will be what happens with the SPV up north. There is full on support of sudden and significant warming set to occur soon, with also quite a bit of support at this being an early seasonal demise of the SPV. So, we will have to watch and see what sort of high latitude blocking tries to develop as a result of the initial impact on things, and how it may affect things and work with/against the MJO progression. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2025 Author Share Posted March 6, 2025 19 hours ago, luckyweather said: mjo moving phases and ssw incoming. potentially more active, cold, and stormier around here (chicago) later into March. (am a weather dummy also, hopefully the professor is proud but prepared for my lashes) It looks to stay continued up and down. I wouldn't say any lasting/consistent or noteworthy cold is on the horizon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2025 Author Share Posted March 6, 2025 3 hours ago, Baum said: The climate changer will be posting on a limited basis. Na, he'll have his chances...unfortunately (for us). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 7, 2025 Share Posted March 7, 2025 looks seasonal/active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 7, 2025 Share Posted March 7, 2025 In the CSU d8 ML forecast we trust 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 8, 2025 Share Posted March 8, 2025 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 8, 2025 Share Posted March 8, 2025 ^^^Looks nasty for Dixie Alley... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2025 Share Posted March 8, 2025 00z GFS... holy friggin crap for next Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 8, 2025 Share Posted March 8, 2025 https://x.com/ItzRoch11/status/1898430186380484745?t=k9tcfmbrBPZkv892UlEblg&s=19 Someone ran a WRF model on GFS initial conditions for Friday. Take with (many) grains of salt, but still interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 8, 2025 Share Posted March 8, 2025 Extended looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 9, 2025 Share Posted March 9, 2025 Looks as though the first trough next week isn't going to be as strong as was thought earlier, and therefore the next (much more potent system) has more moisture to work with farther north. Also, depending on the timing the trough progression, I could see Saturday also being a decent severe wx day in the eastern bit of the sub, and into the midatlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted March 9, 2025 Share Posted March 9, 2025 This false spring is witchcraft. I am convinced it’s here for good even though I’m likely wrong. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 9, 2025 Share Posted March 9, 2025 7 hours ago, nvck said: Looks as though the first trough next week isn't going to be as strong as was thought earlier, and therefore the next (much more potent system) has more moisture to work with farther north. Also, depending on the timing the trough progression, I could see Saturday also being a decent severe wx day in the eastern bit of the sub, and into the midatlantic Way too early call of a 2 am thin squall line passage with scattered local wind damage reports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 10, 2025 Share Posted March 10, 2025 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Way too early call of a 2 am thin squall line passage with scattered local wind damage reports. Lock it in! I'm expecting 0.5" of rain on Saturday, with a few rumbles of thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 10, 2025 Share Posted March 10, 2025 Timing currently looks unfavorably late locally (LOT/Chicago metro) on Friday regarding any substantial severe threat. Since these deep negatively tilted troughs/closed ULLs often trend slower, the system slowing more into Sat may be the best path to getting some severe into the CWA. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 10, 2025 Share Posted March 10, 2025 Is it worth starting another thread for what looks to be a 2day severe weather event? Expecting that both of these risks will be expanded northwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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