2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might say that these are not big anomalies, but this is the +AO that just won't go away. So persistent since May! There might really be the chance for some -EPO periods this Winter, as I believe a cold H5 over the Greenland part of the Arctic Circle correlates to -epo/+pna actually in the wintertime.. not sure I would forecast anything other than a negative PNA though with what's going on in the Pacific. 

We saw this same pattern last year until September. 

I kind of get some 2007-2008 vibes for the coming winter....

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO we are all lined up to see a well below average Atlantic hurricane season in both named storms and ACE
 

I think its still going to be a pretty costly season due to a late home-brew barrage.

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Indeed. And I definitely agree with you that there is going to be a real strong tendency for -PNA this winter given the 2nd year -ENSO. Very extensive research supports this

 

 

 

 

Its not going to be an official La Nina, but that doesn't matter...agree otherwise.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me.

No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo  during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.

I am not sure what you mean by using the term nebulous and obfuscate. The issue with relying on modern standards based on 30 year climate means are that they are continuously getting warmer every 10 years. So the bar is lower for defining a colder winter. A departure isn’t the actual temperature.

My whole point by using long term rankings back to 1895 is that it’s a fixed number which everyone can relate to. The 3 month average last winter was in no way shape or form considered cold for the CONUS. It was the 27th warmest winter on record for the CONUS at 34.07°. But I agree with you that is was a cold January overall for the CONUS at 33rd coldest and 29.21°. The temperatures rebounded in February to 34.81° or 54th warmest. But there were still some localized cold pockets out West in February. 

The storm track for NYC last winter was very warm. On the 11 days which .25 or more of precipitation fell the average temperature was 41.0°. This is why the snowfall was so low again continuing the pattern since 2018-2019.

The climate periods with similar temperatures going back to the 1970s had very distinct average temperatures across the CONUS and various regions. The first period from 1895 to 1982 had a much colder temperature range. So during each succeeding climate period the coldest winter have been getting warmer at a slightly faster pace than the warmest winters have been getting warmer. 

This recent 10 winter year period since 2015-2016 has been unprecedented in the modern climate history of the CONUS. There has been no 10 winter period this warm. This is especially the case when looking at how fast the coldest winters have been warming. 
 

Coldest winters by decade

2020s so far….33.64°

2010s…………..30.70°

2000s…………..31.26°

1990s……………31.80°

1980s…………...30.56°

1970s……………26.62°

1960s……………30.65°

1950s……………31.44°

1940s……………30.14°

1930s…………...27.78°

1920s…………...28.73°

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I am not sure what you mean by using the term nebulous and obfuscate. The issue with relying on modern standards based on 30 year climate means are that they are continuously getting warmer every 10 years. So the bar is lower for defining a colder winter. A departure isn’t the actual temperature.

My whole point by using long term rankings back to 1895 is that it’s a fixed number which everyone can relate to. The 3 month average last winter was in no way shape or form considered cold for the CONUS. It was the 27th warmest winter on record for the CONUS at 34.07°. But I agree with you that is was a cold January overall for the CONUS at 33rd coldest and 29.21°. The temperatures rebounded in February to 34.81° or 54th warmest. But there were still some localized cold pockets out West in February. 

The storm track for NYC last winter was very warm. On the 11 days which .25 or more of precipitation fell the average temperature was 41.0°. This is why the snowfall was so low again continuing the pattern since 2018-2019.

The climate periods with similar temperatures going back to the 1970s had very distinct average temperatures across the CONUS and various regions. The first period from 1895 to 1982 had a much colder temperature range. So during each succeeding climate period the coldest winter have been getting warmer at a slightly faster pace than the warmest winters have been getting warmer. 

This recent 10 winter year period since 2015-2016 has been unprecedented in the modern climate history of the CONUS. There has been no 10 winter period this warm. This is especially the case when looking at how fast the coldest winters have been warming. 
 

Coldest winters by decade

2020s so far….33.64°

2010s…………..30.70°

2000s…………..31.26°

1990s……………31.80°

1980s…………...30.56°

1970s……………26.62°

1960s……………30.65°

1950s……………31.44°

1940s……………30.14°

1930s…………...27.78°

1920s…………...28.73°

 

 

 

I think the issue maybe that you are referring to actual temperature, when most forecasts are issued based on anomalies relative to the current climate period. I guess this disconnect is what is "nebulous" and the source of said "obfuscation". No one argued that it was a particularly cold winter...the point is that it took a relatively lengthy interlude of cold to register even near normal per 1991-2020. This was more than a merely a mismatch period along the lines of 2021-2022, which was even wamer.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I understand that the standard for what is "cold" keeps lowering as climo warms....that is irrelevenet when forecasting anaomlies. I am not speaking in terms of absolute temps...simply departurers relative to current climo.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I kind of get some 2007-2008 vibes for the coming winter....

I'll only take it if the sharp snow cutoff is somewhere south of PHL. 2007-08 and 2016-17 absolutely sucked for me.

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the issue maybe that you are referring to actual temperature, when most forecasts are issued based on anaomalies relative to the current climate period. I guess this disconnect is what is "nebulous" and the source of said "obfuscation". No one argued that it was a particularly cold winter...the point is that it took a relatively lengthy interlude of cold to register even near normal per 1991-2020. This was more than a merely a mismatch period along the lines of 2021-2022, which was even wamer.

 

And most modeling had it above normal in the East/NE at this point and both Don Sutherland and Bluewave were pointing out how the Euro, which had an extensive area AN, was too cool the winter or 2 before. A quick search found this, but I believe it was August's forecast where Don and Bluewave were posting that point.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And most modeling had it above normal in the East/NE at this point and both Don Sutherland and Bluewave were pointing out how the Euro, which had an extensive area AN, was too cool the winter or 2 before. A quick search found this, but I believe it was August's forecast where Don and Bluewave were posting that point.

 

Yea, my point is that it was colder than everyone thought, including Bluewave, not that it was cold relative to long-term climo.

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my point is that it was colder than everyone thought, including Bluewave, not that it was cold relative to long-term climo.

It was cold enough to squeeze out around 30 snowcover days out of 19" of total snow and to actually freeze decent sized NJ lakes for weeks.  Even though not snowy, it felt like winter in this area (maybe not NYC since it is always warmer and snow melts and turns black in hours there) which is more than you can say about several prior winters.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It was cold enough to squeeze out around 30 snowcover days out of 19" of total snow and to actually freeze decent sized NJ lakes for weeks.  Even though not snowy, it felt like winter in this area (maybe not NYC since it is always warmer and snow melts and turns black in hours there) which is more than you can say about several prior winters.  

I'm not arguing against CC or anything....the globe is warming, but last year was colder than we thought relative to 1991-2020 climo....that's my point. Nothing more, nothing less.

[FPizz]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not arguing against CC or anything....the globe is warming, but last year was colder than we thought relative to 1991-2020 climo....that's my point. Nothing more, nothing less.

i agree.  we had a few legit cold shots for NJ.  The -8 I had one morning is one of the coldest I remember in my 47 years in the central nj area.  we have moving 30 year averages for a reason.  i feel like when people talk about the "old days" is similar to al bundy's talking about his 4 td game at polk high.  move on, we all know about the warming already.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

i agree.  we had a few legit cold shots for NJ.  The -8 I had one morning is one of the coldest I remember in my 47 years in the central nj area.  we have moving 30 year averages for a reason.  i feel like when people talk about the "old days" is similar to al bundy's talking about his 4 td game at polk high.  move on, we all know about the warming already.  

Honestly....it retards constructive dialogue because then everyone is forced down that wormhole and loses sight for the forest through the trees. Seasons are measured against current base climo...that is a tacit undersanding, so please stop referring to 1895 in the responses. An understanding of how base climo is used doesn't preclude an acceptance of GW.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

21 minutes ago, FPizz said:

i agree.  we had a few legit cold shots for NJ.  The -8 I had one morning is one of the coldest I remember in my 47 years in the central nj area.  we have moving 30 year averages for a reason.  i feel like when people talk about the "old days" is similar to al bundy's talking about his 4 td game at polk high.  move on, we all know about the warming already.  

We haven't seen those types of temperatures here since January 1994 (and I was barely young enough to remember that). Before that, the last time it happened was in January 1985 (before I was born).

We haven't had a legitimate cold shot in this area so far this decade. The last one was the end of January 2019.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is one of the biggest differences between the Great Lakes and SNE/east coast. The reliance on a monster storm to make or break the season in terms of percent of average. Due to the more frequent snowfalls but less crippling storms, an entire seasons pattern is the bigger indicator here. Don't get me wrong, a 10"+ storm happens and you can all but lock in an above avg snow season, but you can also have a great season if its active even tho the biggest storm is like 6-8". In a place like NYC a monster storm (2016 for example) can make what wouldve been an otherwise crap season an above normal one with one swing of the bat. 

Just adding to this, I found my paper where I had this data...

In 145 years of record, using the POR-average of 41" of snow...

There have been 10 winters on record that finished with above avg snowfall WITHOUT a 6"+ storm. The last time this happened was 1996-97. The snowiest of these was 55.1" in 1984-85 (biggest storm 5.5"). The lowest "biggest storm" of these was 1996-97 when the biggest storm was only 4.7" despite 43.1" total snow.

There have been 22 winters that did feature a 6"+ storm but still finished with below avg snowfall. The last time this happened was 2006-07. The least snowy of these winters was 20.0" in 1982-83 (biggest storm 7.3") and the highest storm in this dataset was in 1932-33, when despite a 9.0" storm only 25.8" fell all winter.

There has never been a winter with a storm over 9" that finished below avg in snowfall.

Id be curious to know of all of NYC winters that finished above the longterm avg snowfall, what was the winter with the lowest "biggest storm of the season" where they could still finish above avg in total? Or how big if a storm theve gotten where winter still finishes below avg. These may be good @donsutherland1 questions. 

[so_whats_happening]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is what the CANSIPS had for July at a 0.0 month lead

To be fair it is not perfect but got the idea. Little rough for the mid atlantic/ ohio valley pattern

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the issue maybe that you are referring to actual temperature, when most forecasts are issued based on anomalies relative to the current climate period. I guess this disconnect is what is "nebulous" and the source of said "obfuscation". No one argued that it was a particularly cold winter...the point is that it took a relatively lengthy interlude of cold to register even near normal per 1991-2020. This was more than a merely a mismatch period along the lines of 2021-2022, which was even wamer.

 

Dec & Mar were definitely what put the orange/yellow on those maps.

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my point is that it was colder than everyone thought, including Bluewave, not that it was cold relative to long-term climo.

My first forecast discussion for the winter of 2024-2025 occurred after I saw the high amplitude MJO 5 back in October. It’s in the ENSO 2024-2025 thread on 10-26-24 and page #145. We were discussing my post. 

The mismatch years I was discussing last October were 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11, due to the high amplitude La Niña October MJO 5 those years. But for snowfall I mentioned that there were other different factors going in which weren’t present those years.

After I saw the lower December snowfall indicator around NYC, I went below average for seasonal snowfall last December. This turned out to be correct. 

The mismatch in my early discussion season turned out to be accurate as it was one of the strongest +PNA La Niña winters ever observed.

But I never came out with a temperature forecast prior to the winter. If you want to take my previous mismatch years of 20-21, 17-18 and 10-11,will compare how those worked out compared 24-25.

La Niña mismatch winters since 15-16 and winter average temperature 

2024-2025….34.07°……#27 warmest 

2020-2021…..33.64°…..#34 warmest

2017-2018……33.99°…..#29 warmest 

2010-2011…….31.74°……#49 warmest 

So 2024-2025 turned out to be warmer and not cooler like you mentioned. I didn’t specifically put out a temperature forecast. But if I did, my winter forecast for the CONUS would have been a little too cold , but not that far off from the mismatch reality.

Below is the NOAA recap of winter and the ranking map.

https://www.noaa.gov/news/despite-arctic-air-outbreaks-us-had-warm-dry-winter-on-average#:~:text=Meteorological winter (December 2024 – February,second-warmest February on record.

Despite Arctic air outbreaks, U.S. had warm, dry winter on average

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

from what I noticed while forecasting last winter, it was pretty damn windy with all of the NW flow days... I'd imagine the reason why it felt much colder was because daytime highs were typically cold for those troughy patterns and you got much less of those radiational cooling nights that really tank temps, keeping minimums up

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

from what I noticed while forecasting last winter, it was pretty damn windy with all of the NW flow days... I'd imagine the reason why it felt much colder was because daytime highs were typically cold for those troughy patterns and you got much less of those radiational cooling nights that really tank temps, keeping minimums up

Also, remember bluewave keeps talking about the nation as a while. Which is fine. But has nothing to do with temp departures at individual locations. The SW was much warmer than avg. It was very cut and dried here, Dec was warmer than avg, Jan & Feb were colder than avg. And this is true even when using the entire POR averages. Wasnt record cold by any means, but it was steady cold much of the time. The winter as a whole was very "mid" with no months anywhere near record warm or cold.

DETROIT
Dec- 33rd WARMEST of 152
Jan- 52nd COLDEST of 152 
Feb- 69th COLDEST of 152

NEW YORK CITY
Dec- 59th WARMEST of 156
Jan- 65th COLDEST of 156
Feb- 54th WARMEST of 156

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

from what I noticed while forecasting last winter, it was pretty damn windy with all of the NW flow days... I'd imagine the reason why it felt much colder was because daytime highs were typically cold for those troughy patterns and you got much less of those radiational cooling nights that really tank temps, keeping minimums up

Yeah. I said that last winter. Some of the air masses last winter were very cold. We had a couple of mornings here that were below zero with strong winds. It takes a very cold airmass to achieve that around here with the warming influence of the Great Lakes. Below zero temps are much more common here in clear, calm nights. If we would have had any clear and calm nights when those air masses were overhead, there would have easily been some -20s in some spots. The center of those Arctic highs were generally south of here so the atmosphere always stayed well mixed

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

Yeah. I said that last winter. Some of the air masses last winter were very cold. We had a couple of mornings here that were below zero with strong winds. It takes a very cold airmass to achieve that around here with the warming influence of the Great Lakes. Below zero temps are much more common here in clear, calm nights. If we would have had any clear and calm nights when those air masses were overhead, there would have easily been some -20s in some spots. The center of those Arctic highs were generally south of here so the atmosphere always stayed well mixed

Yes. And thats happened multiple times in recent years- below zero temps with strong winds.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Also, remember bluewave keeps talking about the nation as a while. Which is fine. But has nothing to do with temp departures at individual locations.

For an individual location like NYC, 34.8° for DJF was the 37th warmest winter average temperatures using dense rank sorting for temperature. The CONUS averaged 34.07° and 27th warmest. In this case NYC was representative of the country for the winter of 2024-2025. So your statement about the national average having nothing to do with individual locations is incorrect.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

For an individual location like NYC, 34.8° for DJF was the 37th warmest winter average temperatures using dense rank sorting for temperature. The CONUS averaged 34.07° and 27th warmest. In this case NYC was representative of the country for the winter of 2024-2025. So your statement about the national average having nothing to do with individual locations is incorrect.

You misunderstood what I meant. I meant a national ranking/average has nothing to do with individual locations- each locations actual weather/ranking is their own and what they experienced/felt, not a rounded national number of all stations. The way you imply it its like saying someone in Miami must've frozen with their average winter temp at 34.07°. And international falls must've felt like perma spring at 34.07°. 

I dont know what dense ranking sorting is but NYC 34.8° ranks 60th warmest in their threaded record, not 37th.