2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

We were referring to NE coastal areas when the 7 year comment was made.

Like I have said previously, modern snowdfall is undermeasured more often today than you imply due to mixed precipitation events and many observers not utilizing the 6 hour swipe method.

When I mentioned to Philly to Boston I was highlighting coastal areas closer to the I-95 corridor. These areas are naturally seeing a decline in snowfall first. Higher elevations in the interior Northeast have more leeway since they can still do well with a warmer more northward shifted storm track. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

When I mentioned to Philly to Boston I was highlighting coastal areas closer to the I-95 corridor. These areas are naturally seeing a decline in snowfall first. Higher elevations in the interior Northeast have more leeway since they can still do well with a warmer more northward shifted storm track. 
 

 

I thik the jury is still out for the NE interior coastal plane, which is where I am.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

When I mentioned to Philly to Boston I was highlighting coastal areas closer to the I-95 corridor. These areas are naturally seeing a decline in snowfall first. Higher elevations in the interior Northeast have more leeway since they can still do well with a warmer more northward shifted storm track. 
 

 

The further south, it is more noticeable earlier. For example, Charlotte hasn't seen a 10-inch snow season since 2003-04, or even an above average snow season since 2013-14.

[Spartman]

On 5/14/2025 at 12:44 PM, LibertyBell said:

these weird stuck ULL are also responsible for our rainy spring, I'm completely done with them.

Feels like we've been cheated out a Spring this year. Too many cutoff lows this month, for sure. September 2011 had something similar when two cutoff lows, combined, dominated over half the days of the month resulting in a record wet September.

Looks like it may very continue into next month.

The end of the 00z Euro run:

Also, the MJO's been stuck in the Circle of Death phase all month. 

According to JB, the last time MJO's stuck in the Circle of Death the entire month of May was back in May 2012, though that was followed by a very hot summer.
https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1922477577555366262

[Spartman]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Since this thread turned into a semi Climate thread warmer oceans and atmosphere allow for more water vapor leading to hefty rain events. Feast or famine seems to be the name of the game as of now with weather patterns.

Just hope we have not turned on the faucet like we did in summer of 2018.

We may have already turned on the faucet. Same thing happened in 2011. Several wet months that year, especially the Spring and Fall. One of the wettest years ever for many, followed by the dreaded Winter 2011-12.

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, Spartman said:

We may have already turned on the faucet. Same thing happened in 2011. Several wet months that year, especially the Spring and Fall. One of the wettest years ever for many, followed by the dreaded Winter 2011-12.

Nothing worse than rain and high humidity.

The forecast busted here today it's been drier less humidity and mostly sunny FINALLY.

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Feels like we've been cheated out a Spring this year. Too many cutoff lows this month, for sure. September 2011 had something similar when two cutoff lows, combined, dominated over half the days of the month resulting in a record wet September.

Looks like it may very continue into next month.

The end of the 00z Euro run:

Also, the MJO's been stuck in the Circle of Death phase all month. 

According to JB, the last time MJO's stuck in the Circle of Death the entire month of May was back in May 2012, though that was followed by a very hot summer.
https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1922477577555366262

I just assumed this was due to lingering effects of the  SSW. It was impressive with an extended -AO. But who knows.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

We were referring to NE coastal areas when the 7 year comment was made.

Like I have said previously, modern snowdfall is undermeasured more often today than you imply due to mixed precipitation events and many observers not utilizing the 6 hour swipe method.

Im also getting tired of this "we measured snow differently before the 1990s". For the millionth time, snowfall at most first order stations (which is the only place you will get a non-stop climate record dating to the 1800s) has been measured this way since 1950 or so. I know a meteorologist who worked for the NWS in the 1970s. It was standard procedure the same as it is now. Furthermore, snow was measured pre-1950s by meteorologists/employees at the weather bureau office, likely very precisely. Look at old weather record books (your local NWS office has them) and you will see what I mean about the detail and precision and care they took with records back then. They monitored the weather hourly with snow and rain, whether they swiped or not. You think todays observers monitor every snowfall hourly? I think not. And lastly, its laughable to assume measurements since the 1990s are so good when we have seen FAA/Airport take over and the NWS at times struggle to get good observers, and in more cases than not, snow is not measured by NWS employees.