2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

Yep the models are signaling a big warmup in early March. 

[GaWx]

Wow, this sort of came out of nowhere!

Just 3 days ago EWs had a near climo normal mean of +20 m/s and only 2% reversing on/near March 7th:

Today they have a mean of a mere +4 m/s for Mar 7th and probably ~25% reversing near then:

 

@40/70 Benchmark

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

Some of the models are way too cold in the long range it would appear, like the ECMWF for example, which seems to be overdoing the amount of high latitude blocking (pathetic performance with the nor’easter as well). Would expect some warmer corrections in the coming days. Pretty frustrating how unreliable the models have become though.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Wow, this sort of came out of nowhere!

Just 3 days ago EWs had a near climo normal mean of +20 m/s and only 2% reversing on/near March 7th:

Today they have a mean of a mere +4 m/s for Mar 7th and probably ~25% reversing near then:

 

@40/70 Benchmark

Chilly spring?

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Chilly spring?

Hey Anthony,

 Congrats on your blizzard!

 I’d love it and JB has been going cold til after Easter after a warmup Mar 5-15. But unfortunately the Euro Weeklies are overall not cold looking for most after the upcoming week. Then again, look how much colder the upcoming week will be vs what the Weeklies had just 6 days ago for 2/23-3/1:

 

Now look at it today (similar to last few days):

and week 2 (3/2-8) has cooled a good bit especially in the NE:

From 6 days ago:

Compare that to today:

 So, based on the big changes for weeks 1-2 in the East, keep hope alive!

 

[cmillzz]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I’d love it and JB has been going cold til after Easter. But unfortunately the Euro Weeklies are overall not cold looking for most after the upcoming week. Then again, look how much colder the upcoming week will be vs what the Weeklies had just 6 days ago for 2/23-3/1:

 

Now look at it today (similar to last few days):

 So, based on this big change in the East, keep hope alive!

 

I’d completely toss today’s runs, but we’ll see what actually happens.

[cmillzz]

I’m not saying we see a March 2012 redux this year, but at the same time I just don’t see any evidence to suggest we see a cold mid-latitudes pattern. Teleconnections look completely unfavorable for the most part, and the MJO ain’t exactly playing ball either. Chicago had its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record this past week (with most of those days being 55°+ and even a few 60s), while the weeklies were forecasting entrenched cold for that timeframe a few weeks beforehand. So color me skeptical that we see an extension of winter linger well into March. In essence, meteorology > modelology

[raindancewx]

There has been a signal for a while for a good system in the SW around 3/5-3/9. It's been showing up intermittently on the models. Time frame is correct for a repeat of the mid-January system that triggered (or emerged from) the pattern change. Doubt anything resembling the true outcome will show for another 3-5 days though.

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, cmillzz said:

I’d completely toss today’s runs, but we’ll see what actually happens.

Check this out 

[EastonSN+]

Phase 7 by the ninth. Lazer beams in phase 3.

[jconsor]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 7 by the ninth. Lazer beams in phase 3.

LOL at the laser beams - ECMWF MJO chart has that too.

Phase 7 composite for Mar does have building ridging near AK which can help to direct colder air masses down to the NE US at times, and we can benefit from overrunning events.  However, it is not really a cold pattern signal with the composite showing eastern US/west Atlantic ridging. 

I believe we really need to get into phase 8 to see a consistently colder pattern, which EPS does show by around Mar 7-8.  

 

EPS is moving the MJO along faster, placing more emphasis on the -VP cell over Central America and the Atlantic than the one over the western Pacific starting around Mar 6-7, whereas the GEFS keeps the w. Pacific cell dominant.  EPS should be closer to reality here, especially with the major warming trend in the Eastern ENSO region past two weeks, as well as the warming in the tropical Atlantic.

 

I think we still have opportunities for snow first week of Mar (EPS and AIFS ensemble both have a confluence/cold high pressure and overrunning signal for ~Mar 2-4, with maybe another overrunning event a few days later), then likely a thaw for 5-10 days.  Last 15-20 days of March have potential, as you said.  ECMWF weeklies have strong signs of AK blocking and looks like southern stream will be active, unlike the Northern Stream-dominated pattern most of this winter.

Though Larry's analysis shows phase 7 is the coldest one for La Ninas, I believe the atmosphere is likely to behave closer to neutral as we head later into Mar, especially given the above-mentioned major warming in the eastern ENSO region and anomalous westerly wind bursts expected to get closer to the dateline in late Feb-first few days of Mar and likely again in second half of Mar.  The neutral ENSO phase 7 composite is similar to the one included below.

 

 

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

@40/70 Benchmark are we getting a reversal?

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

@40/70 Benchmark are we getting a reversal?

This is the most rapid run to run 10 mb mean wind drop to a reversal I’ve ever seen! Just 4 days ago on the 2/19 run, March 7 had mean winds way up near climo of +20 m/s and only 2 of 100 members reversing around that date:

On today’s, which you posted, it has March 7th way down to -2 m/s and ~75% of members reversing!! Unfortunately though, today’s weeklies continue to not show any significant long lasting widespread cold in mid to late March. Hoping that changes/keep hope alive!

[cmillzz]

EPS trended significantly warmer today. Yesterday’s 12z run was completely nonsensical, so not too surprising.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

EPS trended significantly warmer today. Yesterday’s 12z run was completely nonsensical, so not too surprising.

It's a pretty warm 500mb pattern coming up - Models have been too aggressive on the pattern this Winter, so we'll see how it pans out, but some areas in the Midwest may get very warm in early March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z EPS

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/2/2025 at 9:32 PM, raindancewx said:

The snow pattern, the 'smiley face', ID/MT to NM/CO to Ozarks to interior New England I mentioned in October is showing up. It's a good pattern, most of the US will get a lot of snow this year, but probably not where 95% of you live. You'll see everything shift south 200-300 miles during the peak cold waves, but it won't stay that far south for periods long enough for major snows to the south of the main smiley face.

I'm not like the @raindancewx guy, who had most of the snow away from the east coast. Glad I went at least normal to somewhat above for snowfall on the east coast. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking snowy in winter 2025-2026 where 95% of us live. Now we really have a "smiley face".

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 2/3/2026 at 11:02 PM, raindancewx said:

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions.

January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 2/4/2026 at 7:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, at least you can finally rest easy knowing that I actually do not plagiarize your work, right?

Fair critique in a vacuum, but I have my doubts whether it was well intended judging from both your tone and history on here. As someone who also has a great deal of experience making seasonal forecasts, I'm sure you understand that it can be tough to nail the timing and precise placement of the anomalies in a composite map. This was largely due to three factors:

1) The -NAO during the latter half of January was unexpected, and it caused the cold to focus east of where I had it. I touched on this in my write up.

2) I have not addressed these last two as of yet because I was saving it for the post season analysis...but I went more conservative than my forecast narrative would imply due to an overcompensation to account for CC. Two things were clear to anyone that took the time to actually read my work. I was expecting a very cold +TNH pattern to ensue after mid January, and I used 1951-2010 climo maps to forecast 1991-2020 anomalies. I'm testing some things out to try to better account for CC, but I think it's abundantly clear that I had a very firm grasp on the pattern this season.

3) I included the 2002 and 2006 analogs to reflect the mid month Pacific Trough regime that would serve as the precursor pattern to the subsequent +TNH, but that was clearly a mistake that influenced the forecast composite too heavily, despite having matched that pattern very well.

I'm not sure why you are so insecure despite possessing such a wealth of knowledge with regard to long range forecasting. I'm sure your failed business venture concerning gambling on the weather didn't help, buy my advice is to try to remain mindful of the perils of making others feel small as opposed to focusing more on how to make yourself feel tall.

Better luck in your future endeavors-

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

This is the most rapid run to run 10 mb mean wind drop to a reversal I’ve ever seen! Just 4 days ago on the 2/19 run, March 7 had mean winds way up near climo of +20 m/s and only 2 of 100 members reversing around that date:

On today’s, which you posted, it has March 7th way down to -2 m/s and ~75% of members reversing!! Unfortunately though, today’s weeklies continue to not show any significant long lasting widespread cold in mid to late March. Hoping that changes/keep hope alive!

Mid March is okay where I live...but too late for most..late March is even pushing it for me. May just be more like. final warming, similar to last year....too bad my the period earlier this month didn't end up working out like I had though. Our best bet would be getting this to be a "top-down" type of  event, in which effects are virtually immediate. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid March is okay where I live...but too late for most..late March is even pushing it for me. May just be more like. final warming, similar to last year....too bad my the period earlier this month didn't end up working out like I had though. Our best bet would be getting this to be a "top-down" type of  event, in which effects are virtually immediate. 

I should also add that  the east doesn't even necessarily need a reversal because I this that the first half of March will be wintry, anyway.

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid March is okay where I live...but too late for most..late March is even pushing it for me. May just be more like. final warming, similar to last year....too bad my the period earlier this month didn't end up working out like I had though. Our best bet would be getting this to be a "top-down" type of  event, in which effects are virtually immediate. 

Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows

[EastonSN+]

[LakePaste25]

one thing i learned is that every springlike warm pattern is just like Feb 2018 and March 2012. Every Nina is just like 1995-1996, and every Nino will be like 1976-1977, 2004-2005, and 2014-2015 

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not like the @raindancewx guy, who had most of the snow away from the east coast. Glad I went at least normal to somewhat above for snowfall on the east coast. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking snowy in winter 2025-2026 where 95% of us live. Now we really have a "smiley face".

 

 

Ray, you did an exceptional job. Those of us who read your work appreciate the time you devote and the value your insights and effort bring. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I knew I should have stuck to my gut and kept 2013-14 as a top analog. We were in a solar max/-PDO heading towards neutral/2nd year near neutral ENSO.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I knew I should have stuck to my gut and kept 2013-14 as a top analog. We were in a solar max/-PDO heading towards neutral/2nd year near neutral ENSO.

That was an analog by many going into this winter.