2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

Yep the models are signaling a big warmup in early March. 

[GaWx]

Wow, this sort of came out of nowhere!

Just 3 days ago EWs had a near climo normal mean of +20 m/s and only 2% reversing on/near March 7th:

Today they have a mean of a mere +4 m/s for Mar 7th and probably ~25% reversing near then:

 

@40/70 Benchmark

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

Some of the models are way too cold in the long range it would appear, like the ECMWF for example, which seems to be overdoing the amount of high latitude blocking (pathetic performance with the nor’easter as well). Would expect some warmer corrections in the coming days. Pretty frustrating how unreliable the models have become though.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Wow, this sort of came out of nowhere!

Just 3 days ago EWs had a near climo normal mean of +20 m/s and only 2% reversing on/near March 7th:

Today they have a mean of a mere +4 m/s for Mar 7th and probably ~25% reversing near then:

 

@40/70 Benchmark

Chilly spring?

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Chilly spring?

Hey Anthony,

 Congrats on your blizzard!

 I’d love it and JB has been going cold til after Easter after a warmup Mar 5-15. But unfortunately the Euro Weeklies are overall not cold looking for most after the upcoming week. Then again, look how much colder the upcoming week will be vs what the Weeklies had just 6 days ago for 2/23-3/1:

 

Now look at it today (similar to last few days):

and week 2 (3/2-8) has cooled a good bit especially in the NE:

From 6 days ago:

Compare that to today:

 So, based on the big changes for weeks 1-2 in the East, keep hope alive!

 

[cmillzz]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I’d love it and JB has been going cold til after Easter. But unfortunately the Euro Weeklies are overall not cold looking for most after the upcoming week. Then again, look how much colder the upcoming week will be vs what the Weeklies had just 6 days ago for 2/23-3/1:

 

Now look at it today (similar to last few days):

 So, based on this big change in the East, keep hope alive!

 

I’d completely toss today’s runs, but we’ll see what actually happens.

[cmillzz]

I’m not saying we see a March 2012 redux this year, but at the same time I just don’t see any evidence to suggest we see a cold mid-latitudes pattern. Teleconnections look completely unfavorable for the most part, and the MJO ain’t exactly playing ball either. Chicago had its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record this past week (with most of those days being 55°+ and even a few 60s), while the weeklies were forecasting entrenched cold for that timeframe a few weeks beforehand. So color me skeptical that we see an extension of winter linger well into March. In essence, meteorology > modelology

[raindancewx]

There has been a signal for a while for a good system in the SW around 3/5-3/9. It's been showing up intermittently on the models. Time frame is correct for a repeat of the mid-January system that triggered (or emerged from) the pattern change. Doubt anything resembling the true outcome will show for another 3-5 days though.

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, cmillzz said:

I’d completely toss today’s runs, but we’ll see what actually happens.

Check this out 

[EastonSN+]

Phase 7 by the ninth. Lazer beams in phase 3.

[jconsor]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 7 by the ninth. Lazer beams in phase 3.

LOL at the laser beams - ECMWF MJO chart has that too.

Phase 7 composite for Mar does have building ridging near AK which can help to direct colder air masses down to the NE US at times, and we can benefit from overrunning events.  However, it is not really a cold pattern signal with the composite showing eastern US/west Atlantic ridging. 

I believe we really need to get into phase 8 to see a consistently colder pattern, which EPS does show by around Mar 7-8.  

 

EPS is moving the MJO along faster, placing more emphasis on the -VP cell over Central America and the Atlantic than the one over the western Pacific starting around Mar 6-7, whereas the GEFS keeps the w. Pacific cell dominant.  EPS should be closer to reality here, especially with the major warming trend in the Eastern ENSO region past two weeks, as well as the warming in the tropical Atlantic.

 

I think we still have opportunities for snow first week of Mar (EPS and AIFS ensemble both have a confluence/cold high pressure and overrunning signal for ~Mar 2-4, with maybe another overrunning event a few days later), then likely a thaw for 5-10 days.  Last 15-20 days of March have potential, as you said.  ECMWF weeklies have strong signs of AK blocking and looks like southern stream will be active, unlike the Northern Stream-dominated pattern most of this winter.

Though Larry's analysis shows phase 7 is the coldest one for La Ninas, I believe the atmosphere is likely to behave closer to neutral as we head later into Mar, especially given the above-mentioned major warming in the eastern ENSO region and anomalous westerly wind bursts expected to get closer to the dateline in late Feb-first few days of Mar and likely again in second half of Mar.  The neutral ENSO phase 7 composite is similar to the one included below.