2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

Yep the models are signaling a big warmup in early March. 

[GaWx]

Wow, this sort of came out of nowhere!

Just 3 days ago EWs had a near climo normal mean of +20 m/s and only 2% reversing on/near March 7th:

Today they have a mean of a mere +4 m/s for Mar 7th and probably ~25% reversing near then:

 

@40/70 Benchmark

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. 

Some of the models are way too cold in the long range it would appear, like the ECMWF for example, which seems to be overdoing the amount of high latitude blocking (pathetic performance with the nor’easter as well). Would expect some warmer corrections in the coming days. Pretty frustrating how unreliable the models have become though.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Wow, this sort of came out of nowhere!

Just 3 days ago EWs had a near climo normal mean of +20 m/s and only 2% reversing on/near March 7th:

Today they have a mean of a mere +4 m/s for Mar 7th and probably ~25% reversing near then:

 

@40/70 Benchmark

Chilly spring?

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Chilly spring?

Hey Anthony,

 Congrats on your blizzard!

 I’d love it and JB has been going cold til after Easter after a warmup Mar 5-15. But unfortunately the Euro Weeklies are overall not cold looking for most after the upcoming week. Then again, look how much colder the upcoming week will be vs what the Weeklies had just 6 days ago for 2/23-3/1:

 

Now look at it today (similar to last few days):

and week 2 (3/2-8) has cooled a good bit especially in the NE:

From 6 days ago:

Compare that to today:

 So, based on the big changes for weeks 1-2 in the East, keep hope alive!

 

[cmillzz]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I’d love it and JB has been going cold til after Easter. But unfortunately the Euro Weeklies are overall not cold looking for most after the upcoming week. Then again, look how much colder the upcoming week will be vs what the Weeklies had just 6 days ago for 2/23-3/1:

 

Now look at it today (similar to last few days):

 So, based on this big change in the East, keep hope alive!

 

I’d completely toss today’s runs, but we’ll see what actually happens.

[cmillzz]

I’m not saying we see a March 2012 redux this year, but at the same time I just don’t see any evidence to suggest we see a cold mid-latitudes pattern. Teleconnections look completely unfavorable for the most part, and the MJO ain’t exactly playing ball either. Chicago had its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record this past week (with most of those days being 55°+ and even a few 60s), while the weeklies were forecasting entrenched cold for that timeframe a few weeks beforehand. So color me skeptical that we see an extension of winter linger well into March. In essence, meteorology > modelology

[raindancewx]

There has been a signal for a while for a good system in the SW around 3/5-3/9. It's been showing up intermittently on the models. Time frame is correct for a repeat of the mid-January system that triggered (or emerged from) the pattern change. Doubt anything resembling the true outcome will show for another 3-5 days though.