2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring.

 I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo.

 Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase:

Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo)

Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest)

Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo)

Phase 4: +3.3

Phase 5: +3.1

Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest)

Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo)

Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest)

Data sources:

1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

[EastonSN+]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo.

 Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase:

Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo)

Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest)

Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo)

Phase 4: +3.3

Phase 5: +3.1

Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest)

Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo)

Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest)

Data sources:

1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

That is interesting! Looks like we have a decent pass through phase 3, however, I would love to get back to 8 for bigger storm potential.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

Those things are really, really hard to predict, aren't they?

[NyWxGuy]

Ideally, you would have wanted a SSW to take place by mid February in order to have its effects felt in March. Nothing but bad trends across the board for the long range so far. SSW looks less likely, and long range looks like warm/wet and cold/dry. Dry begets dry, and the drought conditions continue. The residual -NAO will likely help us remain cooler relative to average but the rest of CONUS will be torching and our source region gets real warm as well. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

I’m starting to think if one actually does happen it will be in March, but at that point, it will basically function as an early final warming

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Those things are really, really hard to predict, aren't they?

Yes, but I think my wok has been pretty good....there is some degree of warming occurring right when I expected, but it turns out it will be more of a Canadian warming rather than a SSW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NyWxGuy said:

Ideally, you would have wanted a SSW to take place by mid February in order to have its effects felt in March. Nothing but bad trends across the board for the long range so far. SSW looks less likely, and long range looks like warm/wet and cold/dry. Dry begets dry, and the drought conditions continue. The residual -NAO will likely help us remain cooler relative to average but the rest of CONUS will be torching and our source region gets real warm as well. 

I agree on that, but SSW is not the only path to a Nice ending. I still like March, regardless.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

Ideally, you would have wanted a SSW to take place by mid February in order to have its effects felt in March. Nothing but bad trends across the board for the long range so far. SSW looks less likely, and long range looks like warm/wet and cold/dry. Dry begets dry, and the drought conditions continue. The residual -NAO will likely help us remain cooler relative to average but the rest of CONUS will be torching and our source region gets real warm as well. 

 
Today’s Euro Weeklies fwiw for Feb 23rd-Mar 22nd still show no sustained NE warmth and only limited sustained warmth at most in rest of E US:

2/23-3/1 cold NE/NN elsewhere:

 

3/2-8 NN NE; this is only AN week of these 4 weeks OH Valley to SE and it doesn’t even have sustained torching as it’s just the edge:

 

3/9-15 cooled back to NN all of E US:

 

3/16-22 NN entire E US:

 Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week.

@40/70 Benchmark

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
Today’s Euro Weeklies fwiw for Feb 23rd-Mar 22nd still show no sustained NE warmth and only limited sustained warmth at most in rest of E US:

2/23-3/1 cold NE/NN elsewhere:

 

3/2-8 NN NE; this is only AN week of these 4 weeks OH Valley to SE and it doesn’t even have torching:

 

3/9-15 cooled back to NN all of E US:

 

3/16-22 NN entire E US:

 Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week.

@40/70 Benchmark

Euro and eps trended to a colder pattern moving forward.  Sooner or later we will have a warm pattern but yet again it is getting muted.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week.

Excellent point. We all know the west is having a record warm winter. In fact, I have never, EVER seen the west get as much attention on this forum as it has during this very cold Great Lakes/northeast winter. But lets not forget the basics - outside of some extreme years, the common rule of thumb is west warm/east cool and vice versa. Its the very common result of ridging and troughing. 

Personally, I am not looking forward to the false spring but I have a hope. Since Thanksgiving, except for 2 brief thaws, we have been treated to a continuous fresh, clean and glistening snow blanket (none of that hoping the torch passes to preseve a crusty pack) with nonstop cold. Feels like a Winnipeg winter. But whats been lacking locally is a real big storm (biggest was 6.2"). With the eroding of the deep cold and the getting to that time of year when real dynamic late winter/early spring storms can develop, its the transition from deep winter to gambling time. More risk, more reward type. Might as well buckle up, what have we got to lose?

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The EW week 3/2-8 suggests warmer sneaking back in but not even to the E coast. But afterward, the EW then suggest that that warming, itself, would also be temporary as per what I just posted.

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Per what the EW have been showing this period (2/17-23) could end up the warmest week in the E 1/3 of the US overall, possibly even in the absolutes in some areas, til at least late March.

[NyWxGuy]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Excellent point. We all know the west is having a record warm winter. In fact, I have never, EVER seen the west get as much attention on this forum as it has during this very cold Great Lakes/northeast winter. But lets not forget the basics - outside of some extreme years, the common rule of thumb is west warm/east cool and vice versa. Its the very common result of ridging and troughing. 

Personally, I am not looking forward to the false spring but I have a hope. Since Thanksgiving, except for 2 brief thaws, we have been treated to a continuous fresh, clean and glistening snow blanket (none of that hoping the torch passes to preseve a crusty pack) with nonstop cold. Feels like a Winnipeg winter. But whats been lacking locally is a real big storm (biggest was 6.2"). With the eroding of the deep cold and the getting to that time of year when real dynamic late winter/early spring storms can develop, its the transition from deep winter to gambling time. More risk, more reward type. Might as well buckle up, what have we got to lose?

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Per what the EW have been showing this period (2/17-23) could end up the warmest week in the E 1/3 of the US overall, possibly even in the absolutes in some areas, til at least late March.

Idk, March still looks pretty torchy to me, at least the first half.

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

Yeah. That and to have cities have their 3rd coldest stretch in 152 years is impressive. People keep acting like this happens every winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

Could be like a March 2024 redux where the first half was record warm and the second half cooled off to near or slightly below average, despite completely different ENSO conditions.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. That and to have cities have their 3rd coldest stretch in 152 years is impressive. People keep acting like this happens every winter. 

Cherry picking cities will do that

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Idk, March still looks pretty torchy to me, at least the first half.

Pick your model. If one picks Feb 8th ext GEFS like you did (2/9 ext GEFS not out yet), it looks mild. But if one picks the Euro Weeklies, which is a superior model to the GEFS, it isn’t as it’s a mix of AN, NN, and BN. Of course none of them are reliable that far out. But I much prefer the ext Euro over ext GEFS.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

"Could be"....The typical way to make a forecast leaving yourself an out if it fails, which would never happen, of course, since MJO 20-30 day forecasts are always accurate. 

I suspect you've got to pay those people if you want a real forecast. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

Thats not the reason its getting attention here. Nor is this the climate change forum. But I digress. 

In the 25 years I've been on weather forums ("bulletin boards" in the old days), I'd never known weather observer/enthusiast/weenies to dismiss their own weather anamolies because there is a stronger anomaly thousands of miles away. We are weather enthusiasts for many reasons but primarily because we enjoy the weather in our backyard. It's a wild concept to think that instead of a weather enthusiast enjoying a snowstorm in their yard, they should be concerned because its 65° in denver. I guess if i have to pick a weather anamoly not in my backyard to focus on, ill choose the alltime record breaking snowfall in Russia this winter (strangely hasn't been mentioned here).  

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

Of course warmest will outpace coldest with global land areas averaging 3F warmer than where the avg was in 1900. If you were to subtract 3F from recent years of records, wouldn’t cold anomalies be on par with warm anomalies?

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

Great another cold and dreary spring.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Cherry picking cities will do that

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. 

For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become.

That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.