2025-2026 ENSO

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

@donsutherland1, what do you think of this projection? When I see a week-long, ensemble average showing an areal anomaly of +3.66F over that big of an area - keep in mind, it's not averaging just the CONUS, but that entire map inset - that looks significant to me. Like possible record-breaking warmth in places.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

@donsutherland1, what do you think of this projection? When I see a week-long, ensemble average showing an areal anomaly of +3.66F over that big of an area - keep in mind, it's not averaging just the CONUS, but that entire map inset - that looks significant to me. Like possible record-breaking warmth in places.

It's impressive, especially when one considers that the cool anomalies over the Atlantic bring down the areal average. My guess is that near record/record warmth could be possible in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Those were legitimate cold months. Surprised 2015 isn't on that short list as well!

February 2015 had exceptional warmth in the western third of the CONUS.

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not sure what data was used to for the run-up in the price, much less the plunge. I suspect that the dramatic shift in the CFSv2 started the sell-off. The latest ECWMF weeklies were not yet available.

In the larger scheme of things, this was not looking like a Top 3 coldest February since 2010 nationwide.

Using AmWx's Top 10 forecasters from 2025, here were the expected February numbers:

IMO, that consensus consistently beats most of what is posted on Social Media for long-range ideas, perhaps because there is no incentive to hype for clicks, views, etc.

Here are the Top 5 coldest Februaries since 2010:

#1: 2021

#2: 2010

#3: 2019

 

 

 

Today’s Euro Weeklies are if anything even worse than yesterday’s if you want a cold pattern in the E US. Also, the 10 mb has pulled up somewhat on the mid Feb reversal chance.

 Cue the folks that say the EW shouldn’t run daily lol, which is irrelevant unless you’d prefer to keep your head in the sand:

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are if anything even worse than yesterday’s if you want a cold pattern in the E US. Also, the 10 mb has pulled up somewhat on the mid Feb reversal chance.

 Cue the folks that say the EW shouldn’t run daily lol, which is irrelevant unless you’d prefer to keep your head in the sand:

Yes, they're definitely a step back (continuing the trend from recent days). I actually prefer the daily data, as one can better evaluate what's happening than if one had to make guesses over 3- and 4-day intervals.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, they're definitely a step back (continuing the trend from recent days). I actually prefer the daily data, as one can better evaluate what's happening than if one had to make guesses over 3- and 4-day intervals.

Don, Do you mean the WxBell 850 mb maps? What daily data are you referring to? Be careful with their 2m temp maps because I’ve been saying they’re colder than ECMWF’s in house data.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, GaWx said:

Don, Do you mean the WxBell 850 mb maps? What daily data are you referring to? Be careful with their 2m temp maps because I’ve been saying they’re colder than ECMWF’s in house data.

I was referring to the ECMWF weekly maps in general. I prefer the ECMWF chart to vendors.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We had April torches in 2017 and 2019 (those were two of the warmest Aprils ever), as well as the first half of April 2023 (before we turned cold, which lasted until the end of June).

Thing about February is that it's only 28 days. The cold beginning is going to eat a good chunk of the month. For the warmer days to eventually outweigh the colder days, we're going to need to string together some record-breaking, 70+ heat. I just don't see it happening.

Honestly wouldn't rule that out at some point during the month, based on recent trends.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was referring to the ECMWF weekly maps in general. I prefer the ECMWF chart to vendors.

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO in this new climate era. The last -ENSO winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). What say you?

Ray has done an awesome job so far. Statistically, a cold March seems less likely, but it's still in play. I think March's outcome depends on whether the modeled SSWE can occur and, if so, whether it can propagate in a favorable fashion. If not, even if March starts cool, things could quickly break to the warm side. New England would probably hold onto the cold longer than the Mid-Atlantic.

A strong EPO-/AO- pattern would probably be needed to deliver a 2018-style outcome. At this stage, the WPO becomes less important due to the shorter wave lengths. 

[LakePaste25]

2/10-2/18 look fairly hostile for cold and snow in the northeast south of NNE unless we can see some improvements in the pacific as we get closer. The blocking will prevent a “torch.” 

[NyWxGuy]

1 hour ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Honestly wouldn't rule that out at some point during the month, based on recent trends.

Yeah, that mid month period has really broken down and looks quite warm. We wont reach 50s-70s during that week, but if the jet extension continues for longer than expected, we could become even warmer towards the end of the month

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Natgas’ plunge today is even more historic with it down an unbelievable >26% now!!

@Stormchaserchuck1

Really an interesting Winter for expectation vs trend and actuality. I think models might be a little too overdone on the warm up though, although they do develop +epo for some time which can be very warm. GFS ensembles are really warm around V-day.  If we go cold in the 2nd half of Feb, I think the price will rise again. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really an interesting Winter for expectation vs trend and actuality. I think models might be a little too overdone on the warm up though, although they do develop +epo for some time which can be very warm. GFS ensembles are really warm around V-day.  If we go cold in the 2nd half of Feb, I think the price will rise again. 

Natural Gas Prices Plummet as Weather Looks Warmer

Updated Feb. 2, 2026 at 3:07 pm ET

1502 ET – Natural gas futures drop 26%, the largest one-day percentage decline since 1995, on warmer weather forecasts and expectations of inventory buildup. “Did the data trend warm enough to justify a more than $1 plunge? Of course not,” NatGasWeather.com says in a note, adding that natural gas price moves “often overshoot.” The Eastern half of the U.S. is expected to warm “well above normal,” the forecaster says, while production recovers after freeze-offs last week. The most-active contract closes at $3.237/mmBtu. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-pull-back-after-weather-driven-rally-4f77624d?

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?

GFS ensembles are quite warm for the first week of March. Long ways out, but still interesting to see.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

3 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

Yeah, that mid month period has really broken down and looks quite warm. We wont reach 50s-70s during that week, but if the jet extension continues for longer than expected, we could become even warmer towards the end of the month

The AI GFS has 60s for Chicago as early as Feb 9. Probably overdone, but 50s aren’t out of the question. A lot of it hinges on the extent of the high latitude blocking

[NyWxGuy]

5 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

GFS ensembles are quite warm for the first week of March. Long ways out, but still interesting to see.

I would expext that; especially because layer in the season La Nina’s tend to be warm for our area. Thankfully most areas have above average snowfall relative to average for this part of the season; but that will quickly change because our next snow chance will have to wait till mid month or beyond. March 2015, March 2018, March 2014 (for southern posters), and March 2023 (for nothern posters) are pretty rare. It would be hard to bet against warm and dry (seems to be the base state for March in the 2020s). 

[NyWxGuy]

And one final note, you never want to bet against a jet extension. I have a feeling that is being undermodeled and is probably stronger than expected. Remember in January the thaw was stronger than expected. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that here as well 

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

@raindancewx has been pretty spot on with his calls this winter. He had the right idea about the late Dec/early Jan warm-up, forecasted a cold Jan for the east, which verified well, and also stated a while back about the cold retrogressing hard to the west at some point later in the winter. Now virtually every model is showing that in the extended with a strong -PNA signal.

[so_whats_happening]

This is rather disappointing and honestly can't say I'm surprised. Something like this happened very similar last year around this time with the pinching off of a little lobe of SPV in the Eastern US/ SE Canada. It was around mid to late February when this started to take hold.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is rather disappointing and honestly can't say I'm surprised. Something like this happened very similar last year around this time with the pinching off of a little lobe of SPV in the Eastern US/ SE Canada. It was around mid to late February when this started to take hold.

I'm no expert on the stratosphere, but it looks like it's about to split into two, which promotes more HL blocking?

[LakePaste25]

Trough axis is simply not going to work even with the blocking outside of maybe NNE. Bring that trough further west, we can get systems dropping down from the NW. Or bring it east and we can get overrunning events W to E. But with this position, storms will cut. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

I would expext that; especially because layer in the season La Nina’s tend to be warm for our area. Thankfully most areas have above average snowfall relative to average for this part of the season; but that will quickly change because our next snow chance will have to wait till mid month or beyond. March 2015, March 2018, March 2014 (for southern posters), and March 2023 (for nothern posters) are pretty rare. It would be hard to bet against warm and dry (seems to be the base state for March in the 2020s). 

You do realize there is an imminent SSW at just about the same, exact time as 2018, right? You favor a warm start to March based on generic ENSO climo, then list three seasons that deviated from said expectation, which are quality overall analogs (2018, 2014) and a pretty good TNH analog (2015).

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

@raindancewx has been pretty spot on with his calls this winter. He had the right idea about the late Dec/early Jan warm-up, forecasted a cold Jan for the east, which verified well, and also stated a while back about the cold retrogressing hard to the west at some point later in the winter. Now virtually every model is showing that in the extended with a strong -PNA signal.

Not sure where you are from, but late December and early January didn't warm up in the east, it was mid January. As far as the PNA, yes...I don't think I recall literally anyone going with a +PNA for the month of February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is what I had for February in my Outlook last fall....I think there is still some colder risk to this forecast, but probably not as much as looked last week.

February 2026 Outlook

February Analogs: 2025, 2022, 2018, 2014,2008, 2002, 2001, 1971

 

The Alaskan ridge will rule this month at least to start, along with -PNA and +NAO. Some -NAO blocking could develop late if stratospheric warming gets underway early enough, but it likely holds off.

 

Alaskan Ridge Regime Courtesy Lee et al (2019)

 

 

 

The polar vortex should begin the month fairly strong, but will be weakening rapidly, as a SSW is likely by mid-month.  The January-February 2001 transition from reflection event to SSW may be a reasonable expectation, in terms of progression, as RNA pattern resumes and refocuses the cold west prior to any SSW. 

 

The interior will continue to be favored for snowfall as the storm track remains either inland or  hugs the coast. While not prohibitively warm, this will largely canonical La Niña month with  average to below average snowfall on the coastal plane, and average to above average snowfall across the interior.  Should the SSW develop in the earlier portion of the 1/17 to 2/17 window, the the second half of the month may change that due to the development of high latitude blocking, however, it is more likely not to occur until mid-month, as previously alluded to. The month will finish between +1F and +3F over New England and +2F to +4F over the mid Atlantic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. looks like I could be wrong on the +NAO, but I could still see a flip + later this month, despite what guidance does....usually there is a relaxation of the pattern when a PV split actually takes place before any impacts are experiences down the line.

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is rather disappointing and honestly can't say I'm surprised. Something like this happened very similar last year around this time with the pinching off of a little lobe of SPV in the Eastern US/ SE Canada. It was around mid to late February when this started to take hold.

Why is this disappointing?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Why is this disappointing?

Looks like the main PV lobe is headed to Asia. That is why the airmass grows rather stale on this side of the hemisphere beyond about Feb 10th.