2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

Ill wait until my heating bill starts to reflect these notions of warmth and sustained warmth above 50 is on the way.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Ill wait until my heating bill starts to reflect these notions of warmth and sustained warmth above 50 is on the way.

Seriously

Its the same people over and over again predicting warmth.  It has been a cold winter.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

50 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

This winter is nothing like 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. We hear comparisons to those winters almost every year. Those there Nearly countrywide blockbuster winters. Aside from the Midwest and northeast, winter never arrived this year for most of the US. Warm and dry as far as eye can see. 

Only East of the Mississippi. Those were record warm winters in the Western US, especially 14-15, but that one was a +PDO winter.

[MJO812]

I never seen dark blue before in a long time

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies are incredible in the east through February 20.

Anthony’s not exaggerating. He’s absolutely right in terms of temperatures. Every week cooled in the latest run! It’s amazing how much the EW have cooled for Feb vs not too long ago looking mild every week! The chances of a mild Feb in the E US are now on life support after I earlier agreed with @snowman19thinking Feb was going to be mild per analogs.

[SnoSki14]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

I don’t know. When I think front loaded winter, I don’t think of a massive arctic outbreak in late January and possible +PNA going into February. 

Yeah Feb doesn't look warm to me. There could be warmer intervals but weeklies and monthly guidance suggest a near to BN month. 

MJO and PNA will be favorable for cold/snow. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah Feb doesn't look warm to me. There could be warmer intervals but weeklies and monthly guidance suggest a near to BN month. 

MJO and PNA will be favorable for cold/snow. 

Weeklies continue this wintry pattern into March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah Feb doesn't look warm to me. There could be warmer intervals but weeklies and monthly guidance suggest a near to BN month. 

MJO and PNA will be favorable for cold/snow. 

I think it will be like January in that it will start cold the first week and then moderate for the middle third....then we see what the strat does.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November

I think it's pretty clear that it's not at this point. You don't get an epic mid atl stretch in latter January in a canonical front loaded La Nina winter. I think it's time to let that go.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

22-23 was a weakening la nina, and that one torched in January and February.

Tony is right for the wrong reason. This pattern has zero to do with La Nina weakening, which it's doing at a climo rate...no "collapse"....this is happening because we have a stratosphere predisposed to major disruptions given the state of the QBO overlaid onto the progression of the solar cycle, in conjunction with an east-biased La Nina of modest intensity.

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

This winter is nothing like 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. We hear comparisons to those winters almost every year. Those there Nearly countrywide blockbuster winters. Aside from the Midwest and northeast, winter never arrived this year for most of the US. Warm and dry as far as eye can see. 

I must be missing something, because where in the hell have we been hearing comparisons to 2013-14/2014-15 every year?  Considering those winters were literally the all-time most severe winters on record in places (2013-14 Detroit, 2014-15 Boston) of course people will reminisce. But I can't ever recall comparisons. What I mostly recall is talk of the new tropical climate in NYC since 2016. 

Nothing will probably ever hold a candle to 2013-14 here in SE MI. But make no mistake, 2025-26 has been a very solid winter here and we have some brutal arctic air coming. Blowing and drifting snow on a frequent basis, constant wind chills, and solid snowcover since Thanksgiving outside of one week each in December and January. I really dont care whats going on in the west or elsewhere, it has zero impact on how I view my winter. If you had a mild snowless winter but the west was buried in snow, would that make your winter better?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

And yet I have predicted everything right so far while your friend snowman has been wrong. 

You seem like another stupid troll just like him. 

Anyway an exciting period is coming up.

No, you haven't.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Usually La Nina torch by the time March comes, and the SER starts to flex in February which usually makes the east warm. Considering this winter has followed the path of a canonical La Niña, I would assume after this big cold period we’d have some big time warm coming, and with some staying power too 

Why are you so out of touch with reality?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's pretty clear that it's not at this point. You don't get an epic mid atl stretch in latter January in a canonical front loaded La Nina winter. I think it's time to let that go.

Yeah, if it was a front-loaded la nina winter, then the warm-up that started on 1/6 would have stuck. 

[EastonSN+]

On 1/18/2026 at 3:28 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

xMacis can sort by years, months or days, but that many days overwhelms it. When sorting by month or year, it defaults to the last day of each month or calendar year, so daily resolution is not available.

With that said, if no more snow falls this month, the 120-month rolling total (February 1, 2016 to January 18, 2026) would be at 75.6" at DC if no additional snows fell this month. The current record is 92.8" ending every month from March 31, 2025 to November 30, 2025. DC would need 17.2" to avoid a new record by month end rolling. Probably the same for the daily unless some additional snows fell in 2016 between the snowmaggedon and the end of the month.

Looks like DC is about to get a big one to help with these stats.

[EastonSN+]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, if it was a front-loaded la nina winter, then the warm-up that started on 1/6 would have stuck. 

Problem is that some like Tony feel that as though they have a license to spew nonsense because the pattern is evolving in a cold and snowy manner.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

CPC nails it again. 

Yeah, I am pleasantly surprised with them. It's very cliche on these boards or some people's schtick to say that forecasts are no good more than 5 days out, or stress how bad the 2 week forecasts are, etc.. in reality, the field has improved. CPC does a pretty good job in their 3-4 week and monthly forecasts from what I have seen. Also their long range stuff pretty much paints a picture 1 year out and in the updates every month there are pretty much minor changes. I will continue to keep track of, if their forecasts are better than the Futures and Commodities market.. in my experience so far they are. Gawx also predicted it, saying that the NG price won't react until well into the forecast period, a week or so before the cold hit - that's what happened. It dropped, a lot actually, early Jan, then is up now 23% in the last 2 days. Good job CPC and Larry (+PNA January hit, too)! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's important to know what ENSO does as a first point. There is a North Pacific High correlation (+NOI in La Nina)... when you get a strong +PNA pattern in January... that's not La Nina impacting. I do wonder why Larry got that like 10/10 of negative ENSO -PNA Dec's went +PNA in Jan since 1980. It's right, but that's not what La Nina does. I think it has something to do with the Kelvin wave associated with warmth spreading to the central-ENSO-subsurface. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's important to know what ENSO does as a first point. There is a North Pacific High correlation (+NOI in La Nina)... when you get a strong +PNA pattern in January... that's not La Nina impacting. I do wonder why Larry got that like 10/10 of negative ENSO -PNA Dec's went +PNA in Jan since 1980. It's right, but that's not what La Nina does. 

One also saw the same thing following every long duration winter PNA- regime of 25 days or longer. The end of the PNA- regime was followed by a new predominantly positive PNA regime. As for what Larry found, I suspect Arctic amplification is the big driver, as such outcomes were very infrequent prior to 1980. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's important to know what ENSO does as a first point. There is a North Pacific High correlation (+NOI in La Nina)... when you get a strong +PNA pattern in January... that's not La Nina impacting. I do wonder why Larry got that like 10/10 of negative ENSO -PNA Dec's went +PNA in Jan since 1980. It's right, but that's not what La Nina does. 

Well, the PNA is a fairly stochastic index, so it probably have something to do with variability.....regardless of ENSO, that index in only going to remain pinned in one direction for so long before it corrects in the other direction. That information, coupled with the tendency for only month to be PNA even during this potent cold phase over the past several years led me to go +PNA this January and call BS when guidance was RNA.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

One also saw the same thing following every long duration winter PNA- regime of 25 days or longer. The end of the PNA- regime was followed by a new predominantly positive PNA regime. As for what Larry found, I suspect Arctic amplification is the big driver, as such outcomes were very infrequent prior to 1980. 

Yes, you pointed that out way early and it was correct. If I recall correctly, it was strong like, 10/10? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the PNA is a fairly stochastic index, so it probably have something to do with variability.....regardless of ENSO, that index in only going to remain pinned in one direction for so long before it corrects in the other direction. That information, coupled with the tendency for only month to be PNA even during this potent cold phase over the past several years led me to go +PNA this January and call BS when guidance was RNA.

In Strong ENSO events the PNA usually holds the same state through Dec-Jan-Feb and sometimes March though

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Very cool that it's correlating with a good pattern for the 2nd time this Winter

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yes, you pointed that out way early and it was correct. If I recall correctly, it was strong like, 10/10? 

Yes, it was 10/10 following PNA- regimes of 25 or more consecutive days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In Strong ENSO events the PNA usually holds the same state through Dec-Jan-Feb and sometimes March though

This wasn't strong.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In Strong ENSO events the PNA usually holds the same state through Dec-Jan-Feb and sometimes March though

Very intersting. Here are the strong ENSO years.

El Nino

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-87/1987-88

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

La Nina

1955-56

1973-74

1975-76

1988-89

1998-99

1999-2000

2007-08

2010-11

Which of these years did the PNA not hold?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I've done that exercise too many times over the years lol 

Here's the monthly PNA data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

65-66 and 72-73 were the greatest anomalies.. -PNA. 

[raindancewx]

I thought this month would finish cold in the eastern part of the US. With the cold coming late month, that doesn't look completely wrong. At worst, its delayed a week from what I thought. At best, the cold will be severe enough to make some areas cold by the end of the month.

This event is behaving a lot more like a neutral than a La Nina to me. It's been very wet in the Southwest because the subtropical jet has been OK/feeding the polar jet at times. The warmth in the Northwest isn't really correlated to La Nina or -PDO either, same for the Northern Plains. But it's not really cold in the South like in an El Nino.

The models continue to show a big snow/ice storm down to the Mexican border, deep into Texas and the Old South as well. That's not really super cannonical La Nina either - SE ridge usually blocks those outcomes. A lot of the great displaced to the south snow events are in super -WPO neutral events outside Nov/Feb-Apr windows - like the snows in Mexico City in the 1960s, or the snow to the Mexican border in Oct 2020, or the snow to the Santa Fe in Sept 2020. If we get another big precipitation event here (increasingly likely) the winter is basically guaranteed to be wetter than average, and this becomes one of the wettest Januaries in the past 100 years (we're already top 20).

I think a lot of you guys live in a sort of perpetual state of delusion about what actually happens each winter. I saw the Don guy say something like "the Southwest will remain warm"....and its like yeah its been warm here. But the northwest/plains are running 10-15 above average in a -PDO, near La Nina. That's way more of a story than the Southwest being +7 in those conditions.

A small area of the country ~55% of the way through Dec-Feb is running 1-3F below average. A comparable area of the Plains/NW is +9F or more above average.

Meanwhile, the West has been pretty consistently wetter than the East, despite far greater warmth. The pattern essentially has been able to block cold to the West completely (sort of like 2017) but not moisture because there is some subtropical influence.

[Krs4Lfe]

This upcoming storm might be exactly what the south and central US needs. Winter never started in those parts, been very warm and dry. A storm like this, absent a huge shift to the north, would put Texas through the lower Mid Atlantic at average to above average snowfall. That's their ticker to a winter redemption, especially because lower and central Mid Atlantic is running very below average with snowfall. And it looks quite cold east of the Rockies for most of february as well.