2025-2026 ENSO

[donsutherland1]

This morning's preliminary value of the PNA was +0.707. That's the highest the PNA has been since November 20, 2025 when the PNA reached +0.738.  The PNA will remain positive for several more days before it is forecast to go somewhat negative for a short period of time. Afterward, the GEFS show the PNA rebounding. It remains plausible that a regime change (20+ days where the PNA>0 during the January 12-February 11 period or the 30-day period following the end of the recent long-duration PNA- regime) can occur. 

If so, perhaps the best opportunity for a moderate or larger snowstorm in the Middle Atlantic Region or Northeast could be in the January 25-February 15 timeframe. For such potential to be realized, the synoptic pieces would need to become available. So far, the subtropical jet has been largely quiet this winter. Should the forecast strong WWB materialize, that could lead to the subtropical jet's becoming more active across the southern tier of the U.S. some 10-14 days later. Whether that would align during a favorable longwave pattern remains to be seen. 

In the near-term, lighter snows are likely in parts of the Great Lakes Region and Northeast. The lake effect belts could see greater snowfalls, especially as Arctic air could try to get involved next week.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

[anthonymm]

Need a turn around with a KU in late january or february or else we’re not getting to seasonable snowfall. As bluewave said we need a regionwide 12”+ to have a chance at it. To give you an idea of how hard it is to get 25+” now, even if cpark got a 1’ snowstorm and nothing else this winter, they still wouldn’t reach average. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wasn't something like this happening at this point 3 years ago? How does this compare to winter 2022-23?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Wasn't something like this happening at this point 3 years ago? How does this compare to winter 2022-23?

I don't think the pattern is like 22-23, the Strong Nino in 23-24 changed it up, as did the Solar Max starting in May 2024. I can tell that we want to go El Nino.. Not surprising that we might transition pretty fast. The US 500mb composite for this Winter so far is exactly like what it is before El Nino the next year. Here is February

March

[donsutherland1]

54 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Need a turn around with a KU in late january or february or else we’re not getting to seasonable snowfall. As bluewave said we need a regionwide 12”+ to have a chance at it. To give you an idea of how hard it is to get 25+” now, even if cpark got a 1’ snowstorm and nothing else this winter, they still wouldn’t reach average. 

Historically, about 30% of winters with similar or less snowfall than 2025-2026 through January 12th went on to see 25" or more snow. My thinking coming into this winter was 15"-25". I still think that's realistic. In any case, here's the historical data for Central Park.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 1/2/2026 at 11:10 AM, GaWx said:

Dec ‘25 will end up cooler than +3.9F once Dec 29-31 are added. Why? Because Dec 29-31 averaged NN to slightly BN vs 1991-2020 climo overall based on my rough est. That could be as cold as ~30 for those 3 days.

 So, the question isn’t if it will end up cooler because it has to based on the above. The question is how much will it bring down the +3.9. Roughly, you’d be adding a 10% weighting with as cold as ~-1 (based on 1991-2020 anomaly) to a 28 day of +3.9. That would come out to ~+3.4 IF the last 3 days were really -1. If it goes back down to ~+3.4, then it could also end up cooler than 1939, something @TheClimateChangerand I have been discussing. Even if Dec 29-31 averaged near 0 anomaly, that would still bring Dec as a whole down to +3.5, still quite possibly cooler than 1939 in the absolute and definitely much cooler for the anomaly vs appropriate climo for each period as 1939 was >+5.5.

 Also, 2015 may turn out warmer. So, 2025 could come in 6th or so.

 This chart only goes through 2021:

Edit: note that per this chart that 1939 was >+5.5 F vs its climo and 1957 was ~+3.9. So, 2025 anomaly also could come in cooler than 1957’s anomaly.

 So, 2025’s anomaly vs its climo could come in 7th.

Ended up narrowly edging out 1939 for 5th place in the official records. Quite the turnaround, considering the first 15 days of the month were around 1.7F BELOW the 1991-2020 mean, per PRISM's analysis.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Wasn't something like this happening at this point 3 years ago? How does this compare to winter 2022-23?

One thing I’m extremely confident in is that we don’t see 5 winter months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row go below normal for temps. I do think January ends up being another below normal month, which would make 3 in a row since Nov. IMO no way in hell do both Feb and Mar also end up below normal. The only La Niña that did that in the last 30+ years was 1995-96 and that was well before CC hit

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing I’m extremely confident in is that we don’t see 5 winter months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row go below normal for temps. I do think January ends up being another below normal month, which would make 3 in a row since Nov. IMO no way in hell do both Feb and Mar also end up below normal. The only La Niña that did that in the last 30+ years was 1995-96 and that was well before CC hit

You do realize La Nina is about dead right ? You keep mentioning about the typical La Nina February and March but not sure if that happens this winter. 

 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You do realize La Nina is about dead right ? You keep mentioning about the typical La Nina February and March but not sure if that happens this winter. 

 

Wrong again, but that’s normal for you. There was just a massive EWB and positive SOI spike and region 3.4 has dropped as low as it’s been for this entire event. Maybe you should stick to predicting 30+ day long MJO phase 8 events 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Wrong again, but that’s normal for you. There was just a massive EWB and positive SOI spike and region 3.4 has dropped as low as it’s been for this entire event. Maybe you should stick to predicting 30+ day long MJO phase 8 events 

 

How many times are you going to be wrong this winter ? Jeez man give it a rest.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How many times are you going to be wrong this winter ? Jeez man give it a rest.

“30+ days in MJO phase 8 in December”. One of the best doozy’s of all time from you. Stick to arresting perps in the Bronx

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How many times are you going to be wrong this winter ? Jeez man give it a rest.

What has he been wrong about? It's been colder than just about everyone thought....he kept harping on dry winter and that is precisely what we've seen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You do realize La Nina is about dead right ? You keep mentioning about the typical La Nina February and March but not sure if that happens this winter. 

 

What a silly post. Do you understand why the ONI is measured on a tri-monthly basis??

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What has he been wrong about? It's been colder than just about everyone thought....he kept harping on dry winter and that is precisely what we've seen.

He posts elsewhere on this site too you know.  He was correct about dry, wrong about every other thing possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

He posts elsewhere on this site too you know.  He was correct about dry, wrong about every other thing possible.

What exactly???

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What has he been wrong about? It's been colder than just about everyone thought....he kept harping on dry winter and that is precisely what we've seen.

You cant be serious and agree with him. Go back to his posts about November and December and then get back to me. He did admit that he was wrong though about December being warm.

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

He posts elsewhere on this site too you know.  He was correct about dry, wrong about every other thing possible.

Exactly

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

You cant be serious and agree with him. Go back to his posts about November and December and then get back to me. He did admit that he was wrong though about December being warm.

 

No, since you are making the accusations, the onus is on you, not me. Substantiate your claims and get back to me...

[40/70 Benchmark]

All I agreed with him on is that it's been dry and La Nina still has an influence....I'm asking for information on his other "claims", which has yet to be provided.

[MJO812]

40/70 helping snowman19 out

Welcome to 2026

Anyway dont want to derail this thread. 

[MJO812]

On 11/24/2025 at 10:58 AM, MJO812 said:

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The southeast ridge shouldn't be strong. 

And still happening on the models in the long range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And still happening on the models in the long range.

Your understanding of how La Nina influences the pattern is far too reductive. Since we're in the mood to discuss seasonal trends, why don't see consider the model bias with respect to the amount of time that the MJO has spent phase 8. I wonder why that, and has been, for the better part of a decade...

[schoeppeya]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

“30+ days in MJO phase 8 in December”. One of the best doozy’s of all time from you. Stick to arresting perps in the Bronx

You know its possible to disagree with somebody without being a complete d*ck right?

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

40/70 helping snowman19 out

Welcome to 2026

Anyway dont want to derail this thread. 

Almost forgot about your SSWE hype when you were using graphics from that nimrod Mark Moregarbage back in December when he was hyping a massive SSWE and total SPV split for Christmas week, yet another good one

@MJO812 EDIT: You put up a picture of the graphic he posted on his twitter that he was using to hype a major stratospheric warming and @40/70 Benchmark called you out on it at the time. I know you remember it, you don’t have Alzheimer’s disease 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Almost forgot about your SSWE hype when you were using graphics from that nimrod Mark Moregarbage back in December when he was hyping a massive SSWE and total SPV split for Christmas week, yet another good one

Are you really this stupid ? Show me proof . Go ahead. 

[bncho]

It's not Nino = cold and snowy and Nina = warm and dry. If that were the case seasonal forecasts would be easy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Are you really this stupid ? Show me proof . Go ahead. 

I remember that. You did.

[EasternLI]

Some good points in the CPC MJO update from yesterday. I'll include the bullet points below from the PDF. They seem open to the idea of potential phase 8 sometime week 3. Which will be interesting to see what happens with that. Guidance is still looking good with it btw... These updates always give a good read, not only on the MJO, but also the state of ENSO. On a weekly basis.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

• The year 2025 closed out with a weak and incoherent MJO. However, after a slow start to January the
RMM index has recently emerged from the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific)

• La Nina related ocean/atmosphere anomalies persist, but La Nina is showing signs of weakening with
the enhanced trade winds across the equatorial Pacific recently disrupted.

• Dynamical models are in good agreement in predicting a continued increase in the RMM index over
week-1, then eastward propagation towards the Western Hemisphere by week-3.

• Tropical cyclone development is most likely to occur near northern Australia during the next two to
three weeks. 

 

• Following a well-defined MJO during late November, the time longitude plot indicates other modes of
tropical variability, such as a fast moving Kelvin wave, have become more dominant over the past few
weeks. However, there are indications in the VP maps that a wave-1 pattern may be reemerging.

 

• Enhanced convection, related to the ongoing La Nina, persists over the Maritime Continent. 

 

• Consistent with the ongoing La Nina, enhanced upper-level westerlies persist across the
equatorial Pacific.

 

• Anomalous easterlies reemerged over equatorial Africa in late December, and have shifted
eastward over the Indian Ocean over the last week or so.

 

• Enhanced trade winds over the equatorial central Pacific, associated with La Nina, were interrupted
around the New Year by anomalous westerlies, possibly associated with a Rossby wave, but they
have since returned east of the Date Line.

 

• Westerly anomalies have persisted across the Indian Ocean and expanded eastward since late
December.

 

• La Nina induced suppressed convection became quite strong near the Date Line during late December and into
the beginning of January before weakening and shifting westward.

 

• A plume of enhanced convection extended to the west coast of the United States throughout December.
Enhanced convection increased over Hawaii around the New Year and has persisted to near-present. 

 

• Negative SST anomalies persist across all NINO regions, with cooler temperatures observed
over the eastern Pacific.

 

• The NINO 4 region has warmed notably over the last few months, with anomalies
approaching zero.

 

• Warmer waters expanding eastward beyond the Date Line suggests oceanic downwelling
Kelvin wave activity. 

 

• Following an incoherent MJO from late November
into early January, the RMM-based index has begun
to increase in amplitude, recently emerging from the
unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific).

 

• Dynamical models are in good agreement with a continued strengthening of the RMM signal in phase
6 during week-1, then propagation eastward into phase 7 or 8 by week-3.

 

• As seen above, the GEFS has better than usual clustering of members, and very good agreement is
also noted in the ECMWF. This ensemble clustering continues in extended-range solutions from the
GEFS and ECMWF, increasing forecast confidence.

 

• The GEFS OLR tool depicts a large increase in
the strength of the suppressed/enhanced
convection dipole over the Indian
Ocean/Western Pacific.

 

• Late in the forecast period a slight eastward
shift is noted. 

 

• The constructed analog tool is faster with the
eastward progression of enhanced convection into
the Western Hemisphere.

[snowfan789]

Here’s more about the superlatively snowless western winter so far. Seems like a clear illustration of why focusing on moisture - as much if not more than cold - ought to be central to winter forecasting, at least for areas that are not typically mild to warm.