2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@michsnowfreak31.3" in 1995-1996? Holy $hit....I had 127.5"....that must be the only time in recorded history, and likely ever, that Philly received more in one event than you did for the season. Although 2009-2010 was closer in the Baltimore area...

1995-96 was my first year measuring snow imby and it was quite a doozy of CAD. Now, again, remember CAD is different here in the Lakes. No matter how good or bad a pattern is, flakes will be in the air. Its not literally bone dry, but in my lifetime by far it was the biggest screwzone Ive ever been in. The Chicago-Detroit corridor just missed everything of relevance that year. ORD had 23.9" and DTW 27.6". The early Feb coldsnap saw days of below zero weather with zero snow on the ground, very rare for here. Totals couldve been even worse if not for a nice March 20th snowstorm (5.8" DTW, 7.0" mby, forecast was 1-3"). 

Weve had so many great winters since I dont really think about it, and in fact, I would NEVER even give it a thought if not for always seeing it mentioned on here . 

And almost certainly re: Philly. Obviously the avg much less to begin with, but a Nina winter is almost always better here anyway.

Since 1995-96, Nina snowfalls

------ PHL -- DTW

1995-96: 65.5” – 27.6”
1998-99: 12.5” – 49.5”
1999-00: 21.0” – 23.7”
2000-01: 26.1” – 39.0”
2005-06: 19.5” – 36.3”
2008-09: 22.9” – 65.7”
2011-12: 4.0” – 26.0”
2016-17: 15.0” – 37.9”
2017-18: 29.8” – 61.0”
2020-21: 23.9” – 44.9”
2021-22: 12.9” – 47.1”
2022-23: 0.3” – 37.1”
2025-26: 4.8” – 17.8” *thru Jan 7
 

 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The comparison of the Euro Weekly temp. anom. maps of a week ago and today for Jan 12-18 is fascinating:

Dec 31st run for 1/12-18: La Niñaish sort of look

 

Today’s (Jan 7th) run for 1/12-18: nearly opposite with El Ninoish sort of look!

Holy ridge

[MJO812]

Bam now on the colder side. They cant make up their mind.

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bam now on the colder side. They cant make up their mind.

They’re struggling and need to keep the clicks going.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

They’re struggling and need to keep the clicks going.

I don't know...I think this has just been a difficult pattern to predict. I mean if the models are struggling...so will the Mets? Lol

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't know...I think this has just been a difficult pattern to predict. I mean if the models are struggling...so will the Mets? Lol

But they did go colder than the model guidance and they were emphatic about their forecast. They had BN in the E US for the first half of Jan and it’s going to end up solidly AN much of the area. As @donsutherland1alluded to, their business is helped by more clicks. So, from a business standpoint, it may make sense at least in the short term to go cold in winter even if the guidance doesn’t suggest that. But credibility as being objective/accurate will be at risk. Swinging for the fences on the cold often isn’t normally going to work. And they’ll probably never in winter swing for the fences to the warm side, of course. Thus, their forecast misses will almost have to be too cold more often than the other way around. Other social media based wx services are in a similar position.

[BlizzardWx]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who was it in here that developed the site that computes daily index values? I forgot to bookmark that...

Yeah that was me. Here you go!

https://weathersigma.com/sst

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, this La Niña event is definitely east based....no doubt about that. Hopefully we can parlay that into a Modoki El Niño next year.

[GaWx]

The new NMME has an even stronger El Niño for later this year by ~0.2C. The end of the run, Sept of 2026, peaks at ~+1.3C (moderate) and still was warming. So, it was more than likely headed to a strong. It has it centered on 115W:

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The new NMME has an even stronger El Niño for later this year by ~0.2C. The end of the run, Sept of 2026, peaks at ~+1.3C (moderate) and still was warming. So, it was more than likely headed to a strong. It has it centered on 115W:

 

We'd love a nino but not a super nino--that would be a kick in the stones...oof

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We'd love a nino but not a super nino--that would be a kick in the stones...oof

Don’t forget that we have a bonus of 0.35C or so to play with with the all important RONI currently being 0.35 colder. So, IF this were to reach +1.30 in  Sept, the RONI equiv. would be only about +0.95 leaving just over 1C room to spare before reaching super territory on that basis.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1995-96 was my first year measuring snow imby and it was quite a doozy of CAD. Now, again, remember CAD is different here in the Lakes. No matter how good or bad a pattern is, flakes will be in the air. Its not literally bone dry, but in my lifetime by far it was the biggest screwzone Ive ever been in. The Chicago-Detroit corridor just missed everything of relevance that year. ORD had 23.9" and DTW 27.6". The early Feb coldsnap saw days of below zero weather with zero snow on the ground, very rare for here. Totals couldve been even worse if not for a nice March 20th snowstorm (5.8" DTW, 7.0" mby, forecast was 1-3"). 

Weve had so many great winters since I dont really think about it, and in fact, I would NEVER even give it a thought if not for always seeing it mentioned on here . 

And almost certainly re: Philly. Obviously the avg much less to begin with, but a Nina winter is almost always better here anyway.

Since 1995-96, Nina snowfalls

------ PHL -- DTW

1995-96: 65.5” – 27.6”
1998-99: 12.5” – 49.5”
1999-00: 21.0” – 23.7”
2000-01: 26.1” – 39.0”
2005-06: 19.5” – 36.3”
2008-09: 22.9” – 65.7”
2011-12: 4.0” – 26.0”
2016-17: 15.0” – 37.9”
2017-18: 29.8” – 61.0”
2020-21: 23.9” – 44.9”
2021-22: 12.9” – 47.1”
2022-23: 0.3” – 37.1”
2025-26: 4.8” – 17.8” *thru Jan 7
 

 

You seem to have a lower ceiling by higher floor than I do...my seasons are more variable. 

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seem to have a lower ceiling by higher floor than I do...my seasons are more variable. 

100%. The longterm average snowfall is around 42" (the current averages are a few inches higher due to the snowy 2000s-10s). 

Using official Detroit data for the 42 winters since I was born, the least snowy was 23.4" (1997-98) and the snowiest 94.9" (2013-14). The largest snowstorm 16.7" (Feb 1-2, 2015).

A huge majority of winters will fall in the 30-60" range. Not in my lifetime has there been a winter with snowfall worse than 50% of average. You can always count on snow. You'll also see tons of days of "mood flakes" that dont add to the total (lakes influence). Its just wild from my perspective to see areas of the Mid-Atlantic have had snowstorms that dropped FEET of snow and entire winters where the ground was never covered once. 

[bncho]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, this La Niña event is definitely east based....no doubt about that. Hopefully we can parlay that into a Modoki El Niño next year.

What are your thoughts on a +PDO for next season if an El Nino does form? Is it a likely outcome, and why/why not?

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

100%. The longterm average snowfall is around 42" (the current averages are a few inches higher due to the snowy 2000s-10s). 

Using official Detroit data for the 42 winters since I was born, the least snowy was 23.4" (1997-98) and the snowiest 94.9" (2013-14). The largest snowstorm 16.7" (Feb 1-2, 2015).

A huge majority of winters will fall in the 30-60" range. Not in my lifetime has there been a winter with snowfall worse than 50% of average. You can always count on snow. You'll also see tons of days of "mood flakes" that dont add to the total (lakes influence). Its just wild from my perspective to see areas of the Mid-Atlantic have had snowstorms that dropped FEET of snow and entire winters where the ground was never covered once. 

Snowiest winter near me occurred twice since 1990. 1995-96 and 2009-10 topped at around ~72" on the season for both. 95-96 had 30" in one storm, im sure you can figure out the storm, and 09-10 had back to back nearly 2 foot storms in less than a week.

Just 3 years ago we set our lowest snowfall ever recorded of .9"

We average around 26"

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

100%. The longterm average snowfall is around 42" (the current averages are a few inches higher due to the snowy 2000s-10s). 

Using official Detroit data for the 42 winters since I was born, the least snowy was 23.4" (1997-98) and the snowiest 94.9" (2013-14). The largest snowstorm 16.7" (Feb 1-2, 2015).

A huge majority of winters will fall in the 30-60" range. Not in my lifetime has there been a winter with snowfall worse than 50% of average. You can always count on snow. You'll also see tons of days of "mood flakes" that dont add to the total (lakes influence). Its just wild from my perspective to see areas of the Mid-Atlantic have had snowstorms that dropped FEET of snow and entire winters where the ground was never covered once. 

I'm still around 60", that that is in decline at the moment....it probably peaked around 65" several years back, but I'm staring an 8th consecutive dud in the face.

19.9" (1979-1980) and 127.5" (1995-1996 *sorry*)

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, bncho said:

What are your thoughts on a +PDO for next season if an El Nino does form? Is it a likely outcome, and why/why not?

I won't delve into that too deeply until the summer, but given that El Nino looks to become reasonably strong, I expect it to get at least neutralish...I don't anticipate a repeat of 2023-2024, which was at the height of the cold phase.

Transition to warm phase should come around the turn of the decade.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

The new NMME has an even stronger El Niño for later this year by ~0.2C. The end of the run, Sept of 2026, peaks at ~+1.3C (moderate) and still was warming. So, it was more than likely headed to a strong. It has it centered on 115W:

 

If it becomes that strong, the EMI will be crucial.....Modoki of that intensity and we are talking 2002-2003/1957-1958 analogs.....east-based would mean to shield your eyes and hope for a random juggernaut.

2009-2010 had much more favorable solar considerations...

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it becomes that strong, the EMI will be crucial.....Modoki of that intensity and we are talking 2002-2003/1957-1958 analogs.....east-based would mean to shield your eyes and hope for a random juggernaut.

2009-2010 had much more favorable solar considerations...

 Keep in mind that should this be right, the RONI adjustment down from ONI would likely mean that RONI would still be just approaching +1 in Sept.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Keep in mind that should this be right, the RONI adjustment down from ONI would likely mean that RONI would still be just approaching +1 in Sept.

Keep in mind what exactly the implications of that are, and beware the perils of misinterpreting this. I fell into that trap leading into the 2023-2024 season.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

Having a reduced RONI relative to the ONI as a byproduct of the west warm pool can be interpreted as a weaker El Nino in a reductive sense, however, what it really means is that the El Nino is competing with the predominate MC background forcing. The lower RONI seems beneficial on the surface, but the devil is in the details. @bluewaveis very adept at explaining this.

Here is an excerpt from some of my work on this:

Review of 2023-2024 & the Impact of Climate Change on Seasonal Forecasting

Winter 2023-2024 represented a perfect illustration of how crucial a proper diagnosis of the extra tropical Pacific is to the success of a seasonal forecast, especially in this modern era of fairly rapid climate change.

Below is the Eastern MassWeather 500mb anomaly forecast composite for winter 2023-2024 measured against the 1951-2010 climate base period.

 

 

 

Versus the actual 500mb verification.

 

 

 

The two most prominent inconsistencies between the forecast composite and the actual DM 500mb pattern are the much more subdued Gulf of Alaska low and the warmth being displaced to the east. In fact, the Gulf of Alaska low is so diffuse and displaced southeastward that there is actually some semblance of a ridge south of the Aleutians, which is more consistent with prominent cold ENSO episodes.

 

 

 Although rare, there is in fact a precedent for a robust El Niño event to have this type of cool ENSO influence and that occured during the 1972-1973 season, which was in fact a member of the analog composite.

 

 

 

 

This intermingling of a potent warm ENSO amidst a prominent cold phase of the Pacific would appear to be correlated with a rather robust positive phase of the West Pacific Oscillation, since the ridging south of the Aleutians promotes troughing over the southwern CONUS.

Note the similarities of the actual pattern to the +West Pacific Oscillation composite.

 

 

 

 

This is depicted well by the congruence between the spacial layout of the hemispheric temperature anomalies and the WPO correlation composite.

 

 

 

 

The 2023-2024 Eastern Mass Weather DM forecast composite below was much too cold for two primary reasons, which are each somewhat related to one another:

1) The forecast obviously did not consider the west Pacific enough, which is clear given that the WPO was not event forecast. This will change moving forward and it will be included beginning with winter 2024-2025.

 

 

 

2) Several older analogs were included in the forecast composite, many om which occurred during the negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which correlates to colder temperatures along much of the east coast.

 

 

 Given that the AMO has been its positive phase since the early to mid 1990's, it was imperative to make a more of a concerted effort to account for this warmer positive phase of the AMO in conjunction with an overall warmer climate.

 

 

 This is especially crucial given that the rate of climate change has accelerated over the course of the past decade plus. These factors are very evident when considering how much cooler the aforementioned analog season of 1972-1973 was, which demonstrated the same cool ENSO like Aleutian ridging and strong El Nino conditions, relative to this past season. However, it occurred in a much cooler regime that was both pre-climate change and during the the cooler, negative phase of the AMO.

 

 

 

The accelerated rate of warming in assoication with climate change is also illustrated nicely by the degree of warmth relative to the 1951-2010 longer-term mean over the past nine years.

 

 

Note how the magnitude of said warmth is weighted disproportionately in that it is much more intense across the eastern portion of the country. This is due at least in part to what has become known as the West Pacific Warm Pool, which has been rapidly expanding over the last decade seemingly in concert with global temperatures. This immense warmer body of water, which is likely attributable to some combination of climate change and natural oscillations, has caused the Madden Jullian Ocillation(MJO) to spend an inordinately excessive amount of time in the maritime continent phases of 4-7 as a result of tropical convective processes. 

 

These are phases that correlate with greater heights and warmer weather over the eastern half of the country during the winter season, which is precisely what has occurred in the mean over this span of time.

 

 

Usually these maritime continent phases are more prevalent during cool ENSO episodes, since El Nino normally entails that the warmer, convection fostering waters are positioned over the central and eastern Pacific. However, when that is not the case, and the western Pacific features the warmest waters during a bonafide El nino event, as was the case last year, the pronounced Gulf of Alaska low is attenuated and displaced by more ridging south of the Aleutian islands.

 

 

This represents the cool ENSO like signature that triggers an intense +WPO response. While the end result is similar to that of a traditional, powerful canonical  El Nino that correlates to a similarly very mild pattern over the much of the eastern US, the hemispheric layout is fundamentally different. This alternate "El Nina" phase of ENSO is due to the influence of the west-Pacific-warm-pool-induced, cool ENSO baseline acting to attenuate the Gulf of Alaska low. This Gulf of Alaska low feature is effectively deemphasized by the greater ambient heights all across the globe relative to the 1951-2010 climo base period. 

 

In summary, the most egregious forecasting error by Eastern Mass Weather relative to winter 2023-2024 was treating the adjoining of the west Pacific warm pool with El Nino as purely a more west-based El Nino event.

 

 

This is also related to the accurately forecast peak MEI value of -1.1 being misinterpreted as more of a sign of a Modoki like attribute to the basin wide El Niño. When considered within the proper context of a climate change enhanced cool ENSO baseline, it was clear that this relatively meager MEI value was instead a reflection of said cool ENSO influences competing with El Nino. Hence the disconnect between the MEI/ONI and the rather meager ocean-atmosphere interface that it represented was more indicative of the hybrid cool ENSO/warm ENSO paradigm that is "El Nina", as opposed to simply a weaker warm ENSO event that could have been potentially more conducive to a colder winter season.

In hindsight, it is clear that the resultant forcing pattern from the westward displaced convection did indeed mimic that of a Modoki El Niño.

 

 

However, the actual pattern that evolved was vastly different from that of a Modoki El Nino.

 

 

And instead reflective of a powerful, canonical east-based El Niño, despite the notable absence of a potent Gulf of Alaska Low in the mean, which is normally the primary catalyst of the mild pattern over the eastern US. 

 

 

 

The vey warm pattern was instead driven by the combination of cool ENSO like Aleutian ridging and a potent +WPO response triggered by the southwestward displacement of the Gulf of Alaska low associated with El Nino. This blended El Nino/La Nina regime essentially amplified and mutually reenforced the features of each that promote warmth over the eastern CONUS.

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Keep in mind that should this be right, the RONI adjustment down from ONI would likely mean that RONI would still be just approaching +1 in Sept.

What did RONI peak at in 23-24? I feel like the atmosphere behaved more like a strong/borderline super Nino with a -PDO than anything weaker than that. 

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keep in mind what exactly the implications of that are, and beware the perils of misinterpreting this. I fell into that trap leading into the 2023-2024 season.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

Having a reduced RONI relative to the ONI as a byproduct of the west warm pool can be interpreted as a weaker El Nino in a reductive sense, however, what it really means is that the El Nino is competing with the predominate MC background forcing. The lower RONI seems beneficial on the surface, but the devil is in the details. @bluewaveis very adept at explaining this.

Makes you wonder if we will ever see anything like 2014-2015 again due to that pesky MC forcing. Then again, February 2015 was generationally cold here and rivaled January 1977 in terms of anomalies (-15), so it would be tough to repeat that even without the warming. 

[roardog]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keep in mind what exactly the implications of that are, and beware the perils of misinterpreting this. I fell into that trap leading into the 2023-2024 season.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

Having a reduced RONI relative to the ONI as a byproduct of the west warm pool can be interpreted as a weaker El Nino in a reductive sense, however, what it really means is that the El Nino is competing with the predominate MC background forcing. The lower RONI seems beneficial on the surface, but the devil is in the details. @bluewaveis very adept at explaining this.

After 23-24 I feel like most posters here would rather take their chances with a decently +PDO if we have to deal with a stronger Nino. The -PDO with the mc forcing seemed to make things worse for sure. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

What did RONI peak at in 23-24? I feel like the atmosphere behaved more like a strong/borderline super Nino with a -PDO than anything weaker than that. 

Yes, read the excerpt I just posted above.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

What did RONI peak at in 23-24? I feel like the atmosphere behaved more like a strong/borderline super Nino with a -PDO than anything weaker than that. 

Only +1.50 as per the OND peak:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Only +1.50 as per the OND peak:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Right...it had a weaker expression in the hemisphere because it was partially masked by a competing MC influence, which is NOT favorable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't mean to imply that a weaker RONI is never good anymore...it absolutely can be, but you have to analyze the ENTIRE hemisphere...especially the western Pacific, in order to contextualize ENSO, and discern what exactly the RONI indicator is trying to convey. It's a forecasting tool intended to bridge the gap between yesterday and today's climate...misuse it at your own peril.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Snowiest winter near me occurred twice since 1990. 1995-96 and 2009-10 topped at around ~72" on the season for both. 95-96 had 30" in one storm, im sure you can figure out the storm, and 09-10 had back to back nearly 2 foot storms in less than a week.

Just 3 years ago we set our lowest snowfall ever recorded of .9"

We average around 26"

See this is crazy to me! 30" storm - 2 2 foot storms in a week - 0.9" for an entire season....all in the same place!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm still around 60", that that is in decline at the moment....it probably peaked around 65" several years back, but I'm staring an 8th consecutive dud in the face.

19.9" (1979-1980) and 127.5" (1995-1996 *sorry*)

I cant find a stretch in the 152 year record here of 8 consecutive winters below avg, but there was a horrendous stretch from 1931-32 thru 1948-49 where 15 of the 18 winters were below avg. Some of them were mild/snowless in many places, but several others were what youre going through now (missing in every direction, etc). 

Climo always puts things in perspective. It seems like a large concentration of this board is on the east coast/midatlantic, so it would be easy for them to think "big deal, youre not hitting 60" but you still get plenty of snow". We all want snowy backyards, but our climo has to be the base for our expectations. So you have a right to be pissed.

I have a friend who moved to SE MI from SoCal 7 years ago and she thinks our winters are the north pole (and she loves it!), not even having experienced the real fun of a decade+ ago. Also have a friend from Long Island who gets a kick out of how its "always snowing" here. Then....my local group of weather weenies. Put a snow weenie in a state known for snow (our licence plates literally say "Water Winter Wonderland") but in the least snowy part of the state....its constant bitching and whining about the snow falling in the snowbelts. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

See this is crazy to me! 30" storm - 2 2 foot storms in a week - 0.9" for an entire season....all in the same place!

Baltimore had 80 inches of snow in 2009-10 (might I add this total was reached by 2/15... the temp reached 90 by 4/6), and 0.2 inches of snow in 2022-23.

PHL had 78.7 inches of snow in 2009-10, and trace in 1972-73, as well as 0.3 inches of snow in 2019-20 and 2022-23, and 0.8 inches of snow in 1997-98.