2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

While I’m certainly on board with January being another colder than normal month in the east, due to the front-loaded Niña we are in, which would fit the progression, that’s where I think it stops. At least that’s my thought right now. I’m not sure what BAMWX thinks about February and March? I know there’s some hype on twitter today about the new CFS being very cold in the east for the next 3 months; Jan, Feb and Mar….I just don’t see that happening. We haven’t seen a La Niña accomplish that (all 5 months in a row; Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) being below normal cold in over 30 years (1995-96). That was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO all winter long. As I said before, the only way I could possibly see that happening would be with a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup like 2018 had. I guess we’ll see over the next few weeks

Bam is above normal for February 

[GaWx]

On 12/27/2025 at 10:54 PM, GaWx said:

  I’ve been quite curious about what phases the MJO would be in during the heart of the widespread historic US warmth of late Dec, Dec 23-27. We needed to wait due to several days of reporting lag. Would any of it be in the typically chilly in the E 1/2 of the US phase 8? 

 Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive:

 

2025          12          23 -0.28945175      0.37228486               7  0.47157007      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          24 -0.12800699      0.45807526               7  0.47562456      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          25  0.16766728      0.36077648               6  0.39783412      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

 

 Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2.

 Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then.

 Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.

 Followup: The full torch period MJO is now in as I had to wait for the reporting lag. It turns out that the MJO during the heart of the torch (12/23-27) wasn’t in a typically cold track after all. Instead of a typically cold in Dec counterclockwise track of 8-1-2 of moderate to weak amp (including near or inside circle left side), it tracked clockwise weak 7-6-4-3, an unusual Dec track that one would not associate with cold as it kind of went in reverse and in typically not cold phases even though they were weak:

 

2025          12          23 -0.28945175      0.37228486               7  0.47157007      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          24 -0.12800699      0.45807526               7  0.47562456      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          25  0.16766728      0.36077648               6  0.39783412      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          26  0.17544751     -6.13679737E-02           4  0.18587054      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          27  4.42237742E-02 -0.35203809               3  0.35480496

[Krs4Lfe]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

While I’m certainly on board with January being another colder than normal month in the east, due to the front-loaded Niña we are in, which would fit the progression, that’s where I think it stops. At least that’s my thought right now. I’m not sure what BAMWX thinks about February and March? I know there’s some hype on twitter today about the new CFS being very cold in the east for the next 3 months; Jan, Feb and Mar….I just don’t see that happening. We haven’t seen a La Niña accomplish that (all 5 months in a row; Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) being below normal cold in over 30 years (1995-96). That was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO all winter long. As I said before, the only way I could possibly see that happening would be with a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup like 2018 had. I guess we’ll see over the next few weeks

This sounds accurate. La Ninas are usually warmer than normal in February and torch in March. December and January are the best months for snowfall in a La Nina. Once you punt January (not saying we are, at least not yet) in a La Nina, you run into significant trouble for rest of winter. Now would be the month to cash in. In a La Nina, anything past end of January becomes more difficult. 

[GaWx]

 Looking ahead MJOwise, I hope today’s GEFS forecast doesn’t verify as it has it going into a strengthening 6 as we approach mid Jan:

Phase 6 in Jan is one of the warm E US phases along with 4-5. Say it ain’t so, GEFS! Of course, even if it verifies, the warmth is just based on the average and it can still end up cold.

 

The EPS is better but not great as it heads into a weak 7, which is pretty neutral. I’d much prefer to see 8-1-2 for the best shot at a cold E US pattern:

 

[GaWx]

 I’m calculating that the Dec NAO will come in near -1, easily the most negative Dec since 2010. This is the first moderate to strong Dec -NAO during active Dec sunspots since 2002, when sunspots were 135. I’m estimating Dec of 2025 SSN to be 120.

[GaWx]

 This was released by BAMwx:

 

 Thoughts? I’m going to need to research this myself to feel comfy with BAMwx’s idea of the highly counterintuitive idea of a very cold E US on average during La Niña (-AAM) Jan phase 6 periods. They’re saying this probably because GEFS is forecasting phase 6 going into mid-Jan as per my earlier MJO forecast post. I can do the analysis but it will take time. I’m planning to look at actual temp anoms for a city like ATL, Chat., Nashville, or GSP that’s in the heart of the coldest (pink) for all phase 6 days during Jan since 1975. Actually anyone can do it but one needs lots of time to do this.

In the meantime, I’ll continue to root for weak to moderate 8-1-2 over 6 or even 7.

@donsutherland1@bluewave

[Krs4Lfe]

CPC just came in with crushing news for snow weenies across most of the US. Warm and mild, only colder pockets here in the northeast. Looks like pushing the ridge out over Central US was just temporary. Most of CONUS goes right back to warmer temperatures and that forecast is for 1/8-1/13. Most will have to punt first half of January. Never a good sign imo 

[EasternLI]

Seems to be a big question mark in the 8-10 day range in the EPS guidance today. Regarding the NAO block and what ultimately happens with that now. Not surprising, but it is important. Some guidance such as the 12z OP Euro from today. Want to send a rather inconspicuous little cannonball of energy from the ULL through that block which breaks it down. Sometime around day 6-7. Which would be probably the most unceremonious way possible to get it to end. We'd likely see the ridge roll into the east and then wait for the changes in the Pacific during a much milder period. But then you have the 12z EPS for the 8-10 day period. Which seems quite against that idea and apparently favors keeping the blocking instead. Which would keep the coastal track storm chances in play. As per the leading EPS cluster scenario. Or even the 2nd one. The OP Euro idea is included in the minority cluster number 3. The least favored outcome. Maybe tomorrow offers a clearer picture but it's interesting to see the OP run with a minority of support in the ensemble today though.

 

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

CPC just came in with crushing news for snow weenies across most of the US. Warm and mild, only colder pockets here in the northeast. Looks like pushing the ridge out over Central US was just temporary. Most of CONUS goes right back to warmer temperatures and that forecast is for 1/8-1/13. Most will have to punt first half of January. Never a good sign imo 

Shocking