2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

Merry Christmas all! No white Christmas here, though snow covered the ground the entire month through the 18th so there was plenty of white for holiday activities. The Christmas torch here was a fail, just annoyingly mild highs in the upper 30s yesterday & today. 

Ive never quite seen a forecast like the one tomorrow, with snow hitting nyc while colder climes get ice, rain, or mild temps. To say nyc has been overdue is an understatement so to the NYC observer, PLEASE measure 4 or whatever so we stop hearing how nyc used to be like the arctic and is now the tropics. 

[GaWx]

 The best looking H5 map for cold potential for the E US in Jan on today’s Euro Weeklies is this one with a nice +PNA, which is for 1/12-18 (similar to yesterday):

 

Just 3 days ago it still had an ugly -PNA: so there’s been a big change for an ens mean for a week long period

 

Here’s today’s temp map for the same week (similar to yesterday): chilly but I fully expect this would turn much colder than this if the +PNA idea is right

 

Here’s what the same week’s map had just 3 days ago, which is consistent with that ugly H5 then:

 

[EasternLI]

Having a really hard time finding anything wrong with any of this TBH... This isn't half bad...

[TheClimateChanger]

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.

[GaWx]

 Which avg Conus Christmas highs were warmer, 2021 or 2025?

1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. Much of the NE to Ohio Valley/Michigan to Virginias/KY and much of the Midsouth were cooler. Interestingly, NYC and Chicago were about the same.

2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), I think 2021 was net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Michigan being warmer.

2021 forecasted highs:

 

2025 3:20PM EST temps:

[TheClimateChanger]

23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.

Actually, I'll retract that. I don't think the raw data was gridded, so that's not necessarily correct. A top 5 warmest December should be a lock, with the possibility of a record.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Which avg Conus Christmas highs were warmer, 2021 or 2025?

1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. Much of the NE to Ohio Valley/Michigan to Virginias/KY and much of the Midsouth were cooler. Interestingly, NYC and Chicago were about the same.

2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), it’s a tougher call. I lean toward 2021 being net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Michigan being cooler.

2021 forecasted highs:

 

2025 3:20PM EST temps:

I'm pretty sure Christmas 2025 easily eclipsed 2021 on an aerial-weighting, buoyed by much higher anomalies across the intermountain west. While sparsely populated, that's a large landmass and it was considerably warmer this year.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually, I'll retract that. I don't think the raw data was gridded, so that's not necessarily correct. A top 5 warmest December should be a lock, with the possibility of a record.

I don't pay for Weatherbell or any of those premium sites, so I don't have the current PRISM estimates. They are typically off quite a bit, one way or the other, from NCEI's official numbers anyways.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm pretty sure Christmas 2025 easily eclipsed 2021 on an aerial-weighting, buoyed by much higher anomalies across the intermountain west. While sparsely populated, that's a large landmass and it was considerably warmer this year.

Thanks.
 Thus, we agree on aerial weighing. Do you agree that pop weighted would have been warmer in 2021?

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks.
 Thus, we agree on aerial weighing. Do you agree that pop weighted would have been warmer in 2021?

I don't know. Tough to eyeball, especially with the different color schemes and the 2025 data not necessarily being maxT. Looks like California was several degrees warmer this year, so that would add to the population weighting, but the Ohio Valley and parts of the midwest were cooler. Certainly closer than an aerially-weighted comparison.

[michsnowfreak]

It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.

 Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus in Dec won’t be that warm at all! Pop weighted Dec temps are progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal.

 My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN.  Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN.

 Based strictly on geographic area though, my guess is that the Conus will come out to ~3 AN for Dec (~1 BN E 1/2 and ~7 AN W 1/2) or ~37 F.

 If it comes out to 3 AN, that wouldn’t be anywhere near the records of 2023 (~5.5 AN or 40.0), 2021 (~5 AN or ~39.3 F) 2015 (~4.5 AN or ~38.6 F), and 2024 (~4 AN or 38.3 F).

 So, I expect Dec of 2025 on an aerial basis to come out ~3 F colder than 2023, ~2 F colder than 2021, ~1.5 F colder than 2015, and ~1.0 F colder than 2024. Also, 1939 was ~37.7 F.
 

 So, I believe that on an aerial basis that Dec of 2025 will come out no warmer than 6th warmest Dec since 1895. Also, it’s possible that 1957 and even 2014 end up warmer than 2025 if I’m a little too warm with my 37 F guess by, say, a couple of tenths, possibly dropping 2025 down to as low as 8th warmest.

 
 

@TheClimateChanger

[BlizzardWx]

On 12/24/2025 at 11:48 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I bought in at $48! Trying to decide whether to sell today, or hold on a little longer. That $50 mark was a top that held for 50 years when just about every other metal has hit a new all time high, so when it finally passed it, it accelerated. 

Gold had its 2nd best year since the 1970s in 2025. It has an Up signal for next year, per a method I've backtested.. 

The metals markets are completely out of control right now. The paper slammers can't crush it down anymore and there just isn't enough silver to go around. It's being driven by a true physical shortage. Between that and a 7 dollar spread between Shanghai and London, it'll keep going up for now regardless of how "overbought" it is. 

Now back to weather! 

[BlizzardWx]

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too. 

[jaxjagman]

50 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too. 

Buyt this should be more or less from the East Asia winter monsoon trough sorta speaking this shifts H from the Bering Sea into Siberia,Mongolia

[jaxjagman]

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN.  Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN.

Temperature departures like this is something you see in a +ENSO or +PDO season, not a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. There is definitely going to be a pattern change in January. At a minimum, either the Western US will turn cold or the Eastern US will turn warm.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus in Dec won’t be that warm at all! Pop weighted Dec temps are progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal.

 My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN.  Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN.

 Based strictly on geographic area though, my guess is that the Conus will come out to ~3 AN for Dec (~1 BN E 1/2 and ~7 AN W 1/2) or ~37 F.

 If it comes out to 3 AN, that wouldn’t be anywhere near the records of 2023 (~5.5 AN or 40.0), 2021 (~5 AN or ~39.3 F) 2015 (~4.5 AN or ~38.6 F), and 2024 (~4 AN or 38.3 F).

 So, I expect Dec of 2025 on an aerial basis to come out ~3 F colder than 2023, ~2 F colder than 2021, ~1.5 F colder than 2015, and ~1.0 F colder than 2024. Also, 1939 was ~37.7 F.
 

 So, I believe that on an aerial basis that Dec of 2025 will come out no warmer than 6th warmest Dec since 1895. Also, it’s possible that 1957 and even 2014 end up warmer than 2025 if I’m a little too warm with my 37 F guess by, say, a couple of tenths, possibly dropping 2025 down to as low as 8th warmest.

 
 

@TheClimateChanger

Wow, I didn't realize 2023 was that warm. Yeah, that's sounds about right then. Probably around ~3F above the 1991-2020 mean seems a good bet. I was thinking 2023 was like +3.8F... it was a couple of weeks ago since I looked at the numbers on NCEI.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Temperature departures like this is something you see in a +ENSO or +PDO season, not a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. There is definitely going to be a pattern change in January. At a minimum, either the Western US will turn cold or the Eastern US will turn warm.

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past 

Yeah that was an insane 6 week period from late December through early February was insane. Became quite warm after that though. Hopefully we get a KU in January if that’s gonna be the case. Would definitely need some Atlantic blocking to slow thungs down though 

[SnowGoose69]

The GEFS/EPS still strongly disagree on virtually every indice.  GEFS likes more of a -AO/NAO/WPO/PNA whereas the EPS is way less negative on the AO/NAO and same story on the WPO/PNA

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past 

Thing is, 2010-11 had a very relaxed Pacific jet (we haven't had that since 2013-15). That's why December and January went all the way through cold. And the west wasn't really that warm in 10-11 (like we had in 13-14 and 14-15).

Without a relaxed Pacific jet, I expect things to torch at some point in January. Coldest case scenario is January 2018, which was near normal. February is going to torch. (Sorry for those who love cold, but that's how -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years tend to work. You just have to hope that winter returns in March. That did happen in 2017 and 2018, and even to a lesser extent, the last week of March 2011.)

[Krs4Lfe]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Thing is, 2010-11 had a very relaxed Pacific jet (we haven't had that since 2013-15). That's why December and January went all the way through cold. And the west wasn't really that warm in 10-11 (like we had in 13-14 and 14-15).

Without a relaxed Pacific jet, I expect things to torch at some point in January. Coldest case scenario is January 2018, which was near normal. February is going to torch. (Sorry for those who love cold, but that's how -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years tend to work. You just have to hope that winter returns in March. That did happen in 2017 and 2018, and even to a lesser extent, the last week of March 2011.)

But we haven't had had decent snow in March since 2019. 2010s were great for March snow. Ever since then, it's been non-existent. With such a fast Pacific jet, not only do you have more warmups when Pacific air floods CONUS, you don't have the same possibility of amplified solutions like we had in the 2010s.