2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

Merry Christmas all! No white Christmas here, though snow covered the ground the entire month through the 18th so there was plenty of white for holiday activities. The Christmas torch here was a fail, just annoyingly mild highs in the upper 30s yesterday & today. 

Ive never quite seen a forecast like the one tomorrow, with snow hitting nyc while colder climes get ice, rain, or mild temps. To say nyc has been overdue is an understatement so to the NYC observer, PLEASE measure 4 or whatever so we stop hearing how nyc used to be like the arctic and is now the tropics. 

[GaWx]

 The best looking H5 map for cold potential for the E US in Jan on today’s Euro Weeklies is this one with a nice +PNA, which is for 1/12-18 (similar to yesterday):

 

Just 3 days ago it still had an ugly -PNA: so there’s been a big change for an ens mean for a week long period

 

Here’s today’s temp map for the same week (similar to yesterday): chilly but I fully expect this would turn much colder than this if the +PNA idea is right

 

Here’s what the same week’s map had just 3 days ago, which is consistent with that ugly H5 then:

 

[EasternLI]

Having a really hard time finding anything wrong with any of this TBH... This isn't half bad...

[TheClimateChanger]

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.

[GaWx]

 Which avg Conus Christmas highs were warmer, 2021 or 2025?

1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. Much of the NE to Ohio Valley/Michigan to Virginias/KY and much of the Midsouth were cooler. Interestingly, NYC and Chicago were about the same.

2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), I think 2021 was net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Michigan being warmer.

2021 forecasted highs:

 

2025 3:20PM EST temps:

[TheClimateChanger]

23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.

Actually, I'll retract that. I don't think the raw data was gridded, so that's not necessarily correct. A top 5 warmest December should be a lock, with the possibility of a record.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Which avg Conus Christmas highs were warmer, 2021 or 2025?

1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. Much of the NE to Ohio Valley/Michigan to Virginias/KY and much of the Midsouth were cooler. Interestingly, NYC and Chicago were about the same.

2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), it’s a tougher call. I lean toward 2021 being net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Michigan being cooler.

2021 forecasted highs:

 

2025 3:20PM EST temps:

I'm pretty sure Christmas 2025 easily eclipsed 2021 on an aerial-weighting, buoyed by much higher anomalies across the intermountain west. While sparsely populated, that's a large landmass and it was considerably warmer this year.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually, I'll retract that. I don't think the raw data was gridded, so that's not necessarily correct. A top 5 warmest December should be a lock, with the possibility of a record.

I don't pay for Weatherbell or any of those premium sites, so I don't have the current PRISM estimates. They are typically off quite a bit, one way or the other, from NCEI's official numbers anyways.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm pretty sure Christmas 2025 easily eclipsed 2021 on an aerial-weighting, buoyed by much higher anomalies across the intermountain west. While sparsely populated, that's a large landmass and it was considerably warmer this year.

Thanks.
 Thus, we agree on aerial weighing. Do you agree that pop weighted would have been warmer in 2021?

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks.
 Thus, we agree on aerial weighing. Do you agree that pop weighted would have been warmer in 2021?

I don't know. Tough to eyeball, especially with the different color schemes and the 2025 data not necessarily being maxT. Looks like California was several degrees warmer this year, so that would add to the population weighting, but the Ohio Valley and parts of the midwest were cooler. Certainly closer than an aerially-weighted comparison.

[michsnowfreak]

It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.

 Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus in Dec won’t be that warm at all! Pop weighted Dec temps are progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal.

 My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN.  Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN.

 Based strictly on geographic area though, my guess is that the Conus will come out to ~3 AN for Dec (~1 BN E 1/2 and ~7 AN W 1/2) or ~37 F.

 If it comes out to 3 AN, that wouldn’t be anywhere near the records of 2023 (~5.5 AN or 40.0), 2021 (~5 AN or ~39.3 F) 2015 (~4.5 AN or ~38.6 F), and 2024 (~4 AN or 38.3 F).

 So, I expect Dec of 2025 on an aerial basis to come out ~3 F colder than 2023, ~2 F colder than 2021, ~1.5 F colder than 2015, and ~1.0 F colder than 2024. Also, 1939 was ~37.7 F.
 

 So, I believe that on an aerial basis that Dec of 2025 will come out no warmer than 6th warmest Dec since 1895. Also, it’s possible that 1957 and even 2014 end up warmer than 2025 if I’m a little too warm with my 37 F guess by, say, a couple of tenths, possibly dropping 2025 down to as low as 8th warmest.

 
 

@TheClimateChanger

[BlizzardWx]

On 12/24/2025 at 11:48 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I bought in at $48! Trying to decide whether to sell today, or hold on a little longer. That $50 mark was a top that held for 50 years when just about every other metal has hit a new all time high, so when it finally passed it, it accelerated. 

Gold had its 2nd best year since the 1970s in 2025. It has an Up signal for next year, per a method I've backtested.. 

The metals markets are completely out of control right now. The paper slammers can't crush it down anymore and there just isn't enough silver to go around. It's being driven by a true physical shortage. Between that and a 7 dollar spread between Shanghai and London, it'll keep going up for now regardless of how "overbought" it is. 

Now back to weather! 

[BlizzardWx]

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too. 

[jaxjagman]

50 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too. 

Buyt this should be more or less from the East Asia winter monsoon trough sorta speaking this shifts H from the Bering Sea into Siberia,Mongolia

[jaxjagman]

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan