2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

Merry Christmas all! No white Christmas here, though snow covered the ground the entire month through the 18th so there was plenty of white for holiday activities. The Christmas torch here was a fail, just annoyingly mild highs in the upper 30s yesterday & today. 

Ive never quite seen a forecast like the one tomorrow, with snow hitting nyc while colder climes get ice, rain, or mild temps. To say nyc has been overdue is an understatement so to the NYC observer, PLEASE measure 4 or whatever so we stop hearing how nyc used to be like the arctic and is now the tropics. 

[GaWx]

 The best looking H5 map for cold potential for the E US in Jan on today’s Euro Weeklies is this one with a nice +PNA, which is for 1/12-18 (similar to yesterday):

 

Just 3 days ago it still had an ugly -PNA: so there’s been a big change for an ens mean for a week long period

 

Here’s today’s temp map for the same week (similar to yesterday): chilly but I fully expect this would turn much colder than this if the +PNA idea is right

 

Here’s what the same week’s map had just 3 days ago, which is consistent with that ugly H5 then:

 

[EasternLI]

Having a really hard time finding anything wrong with any of this TBH... This isn't half bad...

[TheClimateChanger]

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.

[GaWx]

 Which avg Conus Christmas highs were warmer, 2021 or 2025?

1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. Much of the NE to Ohio Valley/Michigan to Virginias/KY and much of the Midsouth were cooler. Interestingly, NYC and Chicago were about the same.

2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), I think 2021 was net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Michigan being warmer.

2021 forecasted highs:

 

2025 3:20PM EST temps:

[TheClimateChanger]

23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.

Actually, I'll retract that. I don't think the raw data was gridded, so that's not necessarily correct. A top 5 warmest December should be a lock, with the possibility of a record.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Which avg Conus Christmas highs were warmer, 2021 or 2025?

1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. Much of the NE to Ohio Valley/Michigan to Virginias/KY and much of the Midsouth were cooler. Interestingly, NYC and Chicago were about the same.

2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), it’s a tougher call. I lean toward 2021 being net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Michigan being cooler.

2021 forecasted highs:

 

2025 3:20PM EST temps:

I'm pretty sure Christmas 2025 easily eclipsed 2021 on an aerial-weighting, buoyed by much higher anomalies across the intermountain west. While sparsely populated, that's a large landmass and it was considerably warmer this year.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually, I'll retract that. I don't think the raw data was gridded, so that's not necessarily correct. A top 5 warmest December should be a lock, with the possibility of a record.

I don't pay for Weatherbell or any of those premium sites, so I don't have the current PRISM estimates. They are typically off quite a bit, one way or the other, from NCEI's official numbers anyways.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm pretty sure Christmas 2025 easily eclipsed 2021 on an aerial-weighting, buoyed by much higher anomalies across the intermountain west. While sparsely populated, that's a large landmass and it was considerably warmer this year.

Thanks.
 Thus, we agree on aerial weighing. Do you agree that pop weighted would have been warmer in 2021?

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks.
 Thus, we agree on aerial weighing. Do you agree that pop weighted would have been warmer in 2021?

I don't know. Tough to eyeball, especially with the different color schemes and the 2025 data not necessarily being maxT. Looks like California was several degrees warmer this year, so that would add to the population weighting, but the Ohio Valley and parts of the midwest were cooler. Certainly closer than an aerially-weighted comparison.

[michsnowfreak]

It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.