2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

He’s probably right regarding social media. But it has been discussed fairly widely here. 

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

Yes. That’s true.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That’s true.

I do agree that the majority of it is a cesspool, though. 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

True, but I also have seen the exact opposite posted from those social media posters who preach warmth only to have had it extremely muted as we moved closer in time.  Both sides play the same game and never admit to it.   Don and others here like to point out and scold the "cold/snow" posters, but there is an equal amount of warm biased posters as well that have large followings.  This past summer, we had 1 really hot spell with 100s that lasted 3 days, but tons of times i saw day 10 maps with more 100s posted and dumb write ups on them only for those days turn out to be 91 or 92. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

True, but I also have seen the exact opposite posted from those social media posters who preach warmth only to have had it extremely muted as we moved closer in time.  Both sides play the same game and never admit to it.   Don and others here like to point out and scold the "cold/snow" posters, but there is an equal amount of warm biased posters as well that have large followings.  This past summer, we had 1 really hot spell with 100s that lasted 3 days, but tons of times i saw day 10 maps with more 100s posted and dumb write ups on them only for those days turn out to be 91 or 92. 

Granted there are more cold mongers, but we all know the select few who only post concerning indicators in favor of warmth (not Don). To each their own, but I try to be limit the bias and keep it real.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bias is easy to discern among those who actually venture to issue a forecast, but it's also there amongst the Sunday AM QBs...just more subtle. The tell tale sign is the presentation of one-sided data. I think a quality that is inherent of all good posters is a willingness to present data that is representative of the range of possible outcomes. ...ie the folks that relegate themselves to posting about the MC and -IOD are just as culpable as those in the SSW/phase 8 circle-jerk. We all know the ones on each side....you know what the data offered will favor before reading it.

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

So is winter over ?

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Granted there are more cold mongers, but we all know the select few who only post concerning indicators in favor of warmth (not Don). To each their own, but I try to be limit the bias and keep it real.

I'm not sure about that.  It is all about what you click on and what you respond to for the algo they give to you.  The people in this thread that post the nutty cold mongers respond to them on X, so they get fed more of those people.  If for a few days I click on the warm mongers posts and read them through, I get fed those.  I for the most part stopped following individual posters and just go with the NWS, etc., real sources.  

[GaWx]

 The 6 coldest La Niña to neutral ENSO Decembers in the E US as a whole since 1974 have been 1983, 1985, 1989, 2000, 2005, and 2010:

 

 Here are the respective Dec MJOs:

1983: mainly inside COD or just outside/no strong

1985: almost all inside COD

 

1989: most of 8/1 just outside COD or inside it/no strong

 

2000:almost all just outside or inside COD

 

2005: all inside COD

 

2010: all just outside or in COD

 

 What do these 6 have in common regarding the MJO? No strong and most days just outside to inside COD. 
 
 Below are the extended progs that have the Dec 1-21 MJO: look how strong they are, especially GEFS but even the Euro is solid compared to the six cold Decembers posted. My concern is that the MJO amplitude will be too strong, based on history, to allow for a widespread intense cold dominated E US in Dec. Thus, I’m hoping the progs remain going into 8, but weaken. My hypothesis as to why strong MJO has had a tendency (though not always, of course) to not be as cold as weaker MJO is because the higher amp may tend to bring up too much warmth from the tropics, where the MJO is measured:

 
 

Any opinions?

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm not sure about that.  It is all about what you click on and what you respond to for the algo they give to you.  The people in this thread that post the nutty cold mongers respond to them on X, so they get fed more of those people.  If for a few days I click on the warm mongers posts and read them through, I get fed those.  I for the most part stopped following individual posters and just go with the NWS, etc., real sources.  

While this is true, I don't think that is the reason in this case....there is a seasonal element. No question cold and snow gets more hype in the winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 6 coldest La Niña to neutral ENSO Decembers in the E US as a whole since 1974 have been 1983, 1985, 1989, 2000, 2005, and 2010:

 

 Here are the respective Dec MJOs:

1983: mainly inside COD or just outside/no strong

1985: almost all inside COD

 

1989: most of 8/1 just outside COD or inside it/no strong

 

2000:almost all just outside or inside COD

 

2005: all inside COD

 

2010: all just outside or in COD

 

 What do these 6 have in common regarding the MJO? No strong and most days just outside to inside COD. 
 
 Below are the extended progs that have the Dec 1-21 MJO: look how strong they are, especially GEFS but even the Euro is solid compared to the six cold Decembers posted. My concern is that the MJO amplitude will be too strong, based on history, to allow for a widespread intense cold dominated E US in Dec. Thus, I’m hoping the progs remain going into 8, but weaken. My hypothesis as to why strong MJO has had a tendency (though not always, of course) to not be as cold as weaker MJO is because the higher amp may tend to bring up too much warmth from the tropics, where the MJO is measured:

 
 

Any opinions?

This probably ties into the rule concerning the higher amplitude MJO waves in October preceding colder winters that @bluewavehas referenced, though I know that is a more recent phenomenon. I do wonder if those seasons were higher amplitude in October. Looks like 2010 would fit the mold...not so much 2005 and 2000. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While this is true, I don't think that is the reason in this case....there is a seasonal element. No question cold and snow gets more hype in the winter. 

That's because liquid precip and >32F temps are a guarantee for much of the year (hence "dog bites man" weather) throughout the Conus, save the higher elevations. But I  know you know this!

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This probably ties into the rule concerning the higher amplitude MJO waves in October preceding colder winters that @bluewavehas referenced, though I know that is a more recent phenomenon. I do wonder if those seasons were higher amplitude in October. Looks like 2010 would fit the mold...not so much 2005 and 2000. 

To add:

-1983 doesn’t fit
-1985 strong 2nd half of Oct

-1989 was fairly stout last 1/3 of Oct

-2000 wasn’t strong but was stronger than avg

 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

So is winter over ?

I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies. 

[MJO812]

Just now, anthonymm said:

I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies. 

Why do you keep posting nonsense ?

[stadiumwave]

I am not sure why most are not hopeful for this winter when you simply look at -ENSO winters, with -QBO, & early strat warming (1981, 1983, 1995, 2000, 2017, 2021). On average, longer winters than the +QBO years by far. All those years had good DEC (although +QBO DEC were better) but JAN was the coldest on average in the east. FEB dealt with -EPO & SER combo but yielded to good blocky, colder MAR on average. FEB warmest anomaly wise.

 

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies. 

A number of boundary conditions e.g., SSTAs, and teleconnections this year differ from those in recent La Niña winters that saw extremely low snowfall. None of this guarantees a “big” winter, but it does mean the range of plausible outcomes is perhaps broader than what we’ve seen the last few years.

[EasternLI]

Just think this is cute from the GEFS at 12z. After the PV discussion earlier. Now it shows up with a rather stout looking Scandinavian/Greenland dipole at the end of this run. Nice.