2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

With the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022, the coastal areas haven't really had great snow since the mid-2010s el nino. Here is Atlantic City:

2016-2017	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	7.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.7
2017-2018	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.0	14.5	T	9.6	T	0.0	0.0	34.1
2018-2019	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	4.8	4.9	6.9	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	17.8
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.5	T	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	1.0	6.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.3
2021-2022	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	33.2	0.1	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.3	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
2023-2024	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	5.9	1.4	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.3
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	6.0	7.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.9

[chris21]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are at almost 4,000, and not on the east coast. I mean literally on the east coast.

Very fair! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Never say never but holiday snow is great. 

Good news is there are no holidays the first week of December lol

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weak phase 7 in a negative enso Decembers in EQBO years analogs are below normal in the northeast.

You have a - EPO in early December so the source region is cold. A negative PNA will create overrunning events N of the Mason Dixon line.

 

We shall see

Anthony,

 1. Where are you seeing a weak phase 7 being forecasted? The GEFS and EPS haven’t been and still aren’t.

2. I’m well south of the Mason Dixon line. As I said, I was giving you my perspective. A prevailing SE ridge is typically mild in the SE other than when there’s strong low level CAD. I prefer it not be mild. I prefer BN temps year round. Even NN would be ok. At the very least I like to see comfy dewpoints, especially in winter! I hate sweating during winter walks because it’s so humid much of rest of year.

3. I continue to expect a mainly mild lower Mid Atlantic and especially SE the next 4 weeks as is clearly shown by a good # of Euro Weeklies runs.

4. But as you said, we shall see!

 

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Anthony,

 1. Where are you seeing a weak phase 7 being forecasted? The GEFS and EPS haven’t been and still aren’t.

2. I’m well south of the Mason Dixon line. As I said, I was giving you my perspective. A prevailing SE ridge is typically mild in the SE. I prefer it not be mild. I prefer BN temps year round.

3. I continue to expect a mainly mild lower Mid Atlantic and especially SE the next 4 weeks as is clearly shown by a good # of Euro Weeklies runs.

Are you thinking that south of the M/D line will see a warmer than average December, or will it be balanced out by a colder end?

[donsutherland1]

Latest PNA forecast for the closing days of November. This is why one shouldn't expect a sudden rush of cold into the East, even as colder air should be building in Canada and the western U.S.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Are you thinking that south of the M/D line will see a warmer than average December, or will it be balanced out by a colder end?

That’s honestly nearly impossible to predict with much confidence. But I’d lean toward at least a slightly warmer than avg Dec overall, especially this far south, due to the expected mild start.

[brooklynwx99]

models often rush the progression of cold air eastward in -EPO patterns. i would say after the 5th is when snow risks increase for many in the Northeast

in the same vein, i don't think much has really changed in terms of the overall progression. MJO is moving along, the SPV will become very weak and increase the shot at a -NAO spell, and we should see a BN to solidly BN December

also, when you have a -WPO/-EPO (and likely a -NAO at some point), it is really, really difficult to have a truly bad period since there's so much cold air displaced into Canada and the CONUS

[brooklynwx99]

also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx Sunspots over 110 so far this month. Very high geomag continuing as well, as has been the case since solar activity picked back up in August. If this follows the trend you found since 1979, this is very likely to be a +NAO winter
 

 

 

 

 

 I still wouldn’t give up on a net neutral NAO (between -0.25 and +0.25) DJF averaged out, especially because of the very weak SPV to start. Although solid +NAOs have been dominant recently other than 20-21 (near minimum), there was a net neutral NAO DJF during the weak SPV, -ENSO, active solar winters in 2000-1 and 2001-2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going

Absolutely. A couple of my best months of December (2007 and 2008), which I incorporated into the Outlook as analogs, didn't get going until the second week.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely. A couple of my best months of December (2007 and 2008), which I incorporated into the Outlook as analogs, didn't get going until the second week.

The first week of December in 2007 was the best of that month, in regards to cold and snow. The snowstorm on the 5th was the best event until February 22nd. Although, the previous month (November) was colder than average.

2008 got going in the 2nd half of November, with a snowstorm on November 20. Again, the previous month (October) was colder than average. Weird thing about this winter is that the cold and snow didn't really align. October-January was the cold part, but the big storm was on March 1-2 (that was the beginning of about 6-7 years of great storms).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The first week of December in 2007 was the best of that month, in regards to cold and snow. The snowstorm on the 5th was the best event until February 22nd. Although, the previous month (November) was colder than average.

2008 got going in the 2nd half of November, with a snowstorm on November 20. Again, the previous month (October) was colder than average. Weird thing about this winter is that the cold and snow didn't really align. October-January was the cold part, but the big storm was on March 1-2 (that was the beginning of about 6-7 years of great storms).

Yea, 2007 I had one 4" event before the second week, but 2008 was only a T prior.

[anthonymm]

46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going

Any snow at all at any time of the year is gravy pretty much for central park/I95ers south of new england now.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Any snow at all at any time of the year is gravy pretty much for central park/I95ers south of new england now.

whatever you say

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going

Ill take it November 2018 and December 2019 are anomalies then?

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Any snow at all at any time of the year is gravy pretty much for central park/I95ers south of new england now.

LOL what

[anthonymm]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL what

I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.

[kazimirkai]

If you ask me we've already sufficiently met the criteria or an early winter in the east so some relative warmth over the next two or three weeks feels like an appropriate 'balance'. Here's a comparison of seasonal snowfall vs last year at this time. Only the coastal and mid-atlantic areas that have missed out so far. 

[kazimirkai]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.

I mean this seems pretty reasonable. Was at stony brook for the last four years and we got literally one decent snowstorm during that whole period. I certainly related to this sentiment coming from upstate New York. 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Any snow at all at any time of the year is gravy pretty much for central park/I95ers south of new england now.

perhaps this is an over-polarization, especially for central park, but for Baltimore and points south I can tell you we treat every snow event like gravy.

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.

Probably real unlikely that this winter will be as bad as 22-23, that was one of the worst in the last 30 years in the NYC metro area, 22-23 ranked right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 and 19-20. The clue to look for when there’s a La Niña is what December does….if December ends up with below normal snowfall, especially if November has no snowfall, followed by a below normal December, that’s a very, very bad sign. Usually the kiss of death for the remainder of winter in the NYC metro area

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

11/17/25 MJO forecasts is mixed bag:

1) 11/17/25 GEFS backtracked to ~2 days slower than yesterday’s slightly more progressive/weaker run to being nearly identical to the more lethargic and stronger run of 11/15 (not what I wanted to see):

GEFS 11/17: stronger/less progressive vs GEFS 11/16 and close to GEFS 11/15

 

GEFS 11/16: was slightly more progressive/weaker than GEFS 11/15

 

GEFS 11/15:

 

—————

2) However, 11/17/25 EPS remains similar to yesterday’s slightly more progressive run and continues to be a good bit more progressive/weaker than GEFS, two things I like:

11/17 EPS: similar to 11/16 EPS and more progressive/weaker than 11/17 GEFS

 

11/16 EPS: slightly more progressive than 11/15 EPS

 

11/15 EPS:

A link to all the "credible" model RMM forecasts are at this link fwiw:

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

[anthonymm]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Probably real unlikely that this winter will be as bad as 22-23, that was one of the worst in the last 30 years in the NYC metro area, 22-23 ranked right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 and 19-20. The clue to look for when there’s a La Niña is what December does….if December ends up with below normal snowfall, especially if November has no snowfall, followed by a below normal December, that’s a very, very bad sign. Usually the kiss of death for the remainder of winter in the NYC metro area

Early Dec looks bad for the coast, no +PNA in sight so things will cut. Remains to see what mid-late will bring. 

[MJO812]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Early Dec looks bad for the coast, no +PNA in sight so things will cut. Remains to see what mid-late will bring. 

You dont need a positive PNA to snow to the coast if you have other teleconnections in your favor ( im talking about further north you go )

You seem really down on this winter

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.

That doesnt mean this winter will not be good.  Its only November 17.

Jeez people are already jumping off ledges.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.

Are you like 15 years old or something and don't remember past 4 years ago?  Central park from 1970-2002 only had 4 winters above 30".  Go look up some stats.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.

True, although we cant guarantee that any given winter won't turn into 2020/2021 or even better. 

[MJO812]

This looks great. More members further south  this run.

[MJO812]

Weeklies are awesome if you like winter weather