2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Record cold in southeast according to news. Assuming this is due to la Nina.

My city’s official low (KSAV) as of 7AM EST was way down to 28 F, which beats the 31 record low for the day (records back to 1874). Not only that but also:

-last time it was this cold or colder this early in season was 1976

-colder than 78% of coldest for ENTIRE November

-last time it was colder in entire November was 2014

 

[GaWx]

 @donsutherland1put together and posted this excellent table in the SE thread that says a lot about how historic this cold is in the Deep South:

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

And don't forget about Nino 1+2. That was in el nino mode all winter long.

[EastonSN+]

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

Here in NJ, after Jan, I got 5.25" total.  Dec and Jan I got 55", so 60.25" total.  We were on our way to breaking the 95/96 winter then it pretty much did stop.  

[BlizzardWx]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Here in NJ, after Jan, I got 5.25" total.  Dec and Jan I got 55", so 60.25" total.  We were on our way to breaking the 95/96 winter then it pretty much did stop.  

Over my way it began when it stopped for you all. Snowiest February on record and the Oklahoma state record coldest temperature. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

Yeah, people forget about that cool down in the last third of March 2011. Turned a solidly positive temperature departure to a near normal.

I feel like the previous winter (2009-10) was more abrupt. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow by February 10, and the snow just stopped. The change was so dramatic, to the point there was record 90-degree heat during the first week of April.

It's amazing, though, how so much snow was able to fall in such a short time during those 2 winters. And in 2 very different ENSO states (2009-10 being a strong el nino, and 2010-11 being a strong la nina).

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but notice the coolest anomalies are out west which would indicate either a broad trough and/or a strong Pacific jet. 

If you're looking for snow, you're not going to get much in that pattern. This winter could very well be like last with relatively colder anomalies but a lack of snow due to unfavorable storm tracks. 

100% this is not a snow look. We get snow only when the rockies torch under a huge ridge. Which is extremely unlikely now that we're in a nina. I see a BN winter ahead, at least south of Boston.

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Over my way it began when it stopped for you all. Snowiest February on record and the Oklahoma state record coldest temperature. 

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here. 

12/19/2009 to 2/10/2010 is the only one that really rivals 10-11. I highly doubt we're ever going to have a stretch with so much snow in very little time like those two winters. If we're going to have a high snow season, it will be more sustained throughout the season, like 2013-14 or 2014-15.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 @donsutherland1put together and posted this excellent table in the SE thread that says a lot about how historic this cold is in the Deep South:

 

Matching the recent pattern of more narrowly focused Arctic outbreaks into smaller geographic regions than we used to get. The November 1976 Arctic outbreak was a longer lasting one and covered much of the East with record cold.

Reminds me a bit of the Great Lakes record cold in January 2019 which was short-lived and didn’t extend to the East with its most impressive cold. Also the February 2021 Arctic outbreak which stayed in the Plains. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

12/19/2009 to 2/10/2010 is the only one that really rivals 10-11. I highly doubt we're ever going to have a stretch with so much snow in very little time like those two winters. If we're going to have a high snow season, it will be more sustained throughout the season, like 2013-14 or 2014-15.

Missed the 2/6/10 event on LI by about 40 miles. That was a brutal one. Other than that agreed-09-10 was another good season here. Usually the big Nino winters can produce up to the NYC area when we have some cold with the huge Nino driven storms. 23-24 just had no cold like 97-98 and 72-73 so it sucked. 

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Matching the recent pattern of more narrowly focused Arctic outbreaks into smaller geographic regions than we used to get. The November 1976 Arctic outbreak was a longer lasting one and covered much of the East with record cold.

Reminds me a bit of the Great Lakes record cold in January 2019 which was short-lived and didn’t extend to the East with its most impressive cold. Also the February 2021 Arctic outbreak which stayed in the Plains. 

In the past, you know there were also times of narrow short lived record breaking cold too right?  You bring up an extreme examples every single time like that was normal, which it wasn't, even then.  Rarely is there long lasting cold in early-mid November in any year.  

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

In the past, you know there were also times of narrow short lived record breaking cold too right?  You bring up an extreme examples every single time like that was normal, which it wasn't, even then.  Rarely is there long lasting cold in early-mid November in any year.  

There weren’t as many as we have been getting over the last decade. We would often get Arctic outbreaks in the Plains which extended all the way to the East Coast. Plus the Northeast would usually get record cold when the Southeast did.

This repeated narrow focusing of Arctic outbreaks into smaller geographic regions is a recent phenomenon. The Northern Hemisphere is near the warmest on record for this time of year. So it makes sense that the records are focused more into a single region rather than the more extensive Arctic outbreaks of days past.

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Matching the recent pattern of more narrowly focused Arctic outbreaks into smaller geographic regions than we used to get. The November 1976 Arctic outbreak was a longer lasting one and covered much of the East with record cold.

Reminds me a bit of the Great Lakes record cold in January 2019 which was short-lived and didn’t extend to the East with its most impressive cold. Also the February 2021 Arctic outbreak which stayed in the Plains. 

 

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

In the past, you know there were also times of narrow short lived record breaking cold too right?  You bring up an extreme examples every single time like that was normal, which it wasn't, even then.  Rarely is there long lasting cold in early-mid November in any year.  

 This map gives a good perspective that shows the record cold was widespread from the mid-south to the SE US and with a few in the lower Midwest and also in TX although, indeed, none in the NE US:

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 This map gives a good perspective that shows the record cold was widespread from the mid-south to the SE US and with a few in the Midwest and also in TX although none in the NE US:

November 1976 was the 9th coldest for the CONUS since 1895. It was the 5th coldest in the Northeast. Finished as the #1 coldest in the Ohio Valley and Southeast. So it was part of a widespread and long lasting Arctic cold outbreak which was common in that much colder era.

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

November 1976 was the 9th coldest for the CONUS since 1895. It was the 5th coldest in the Northeast. Finished as the #1 coldest in the Ohio Valley and Southeast .So it was part of a widespread and long lasting Arctic cold outbreak which was common in that much colder era.

 The Earth’s average CO2 level was 333 during the very cold winter of 1976-7. That’s pretty impressive considering that it had risen from 285 in 1850. I’m assuming that the increase in sulfates was probably a big reason. To compare, it is now all of the way up to ~431!

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, people forget about that cool down in the last third of March 2011. Turned a solidly positive temperature departure to a near normal.

I feel like the previous winter (2009-10) was more abrupt. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow by February 10, and the snow just stopped. The change was so dramatic, to the point there was record 90-degree heat during the first week of April.

It's amazing, though, how so much snow was able to fall in such a short time during those 2 winters. And in 2 very different ENSO states (2009-10 being a strong el nino, and 2010-11 being a strong la nina).

The 2010-11 winter was the first and last time I ever heard JB predict an early end to winter. Just before mid-January he posted that all the high latitude blocking was going to completely break down by early February and that winter was going to come to an abrupt end in the east and not come back again. For the most part, he ended up being right

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is exactly how my outlook is.

Although it doesnt directly apply to the Great Lakes, I read your outlook and you did a fantastic job. You explained/laid out everything re: your thoughts on winter 2025-26.

[donsutherland1]

Jacksonville has experienced an earlier first freeze than New York City (Central Park) for only 12th time on record since winter 1871-1872. The last time that occurred was during winter 2016-2017 (Jacksonville: Nov 21; NYC: Dec 9), also a La Niña winter. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

Here in NJ, after Jan, I got 5.25" total.  Dec and Jan I got 55", so 60.25" total.  We were on our way to breaking the 95/96 winter then it pretty much did stop.  

2010-11 here: 

Nov: T, Dec: 9.2", Jan: 18.0", Feb: 31.8", Mar- 9.1", Apr- 1.3", total 69.4". A very solid wall to wall winter here.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 This map gives a good perspective that shows the record cold was widespread from the mid-south to the SE US and with a few in the lower Midwest and also in TX although, indeed, none in the NE US:

It was not record breaking here, however the 2.2" snowfall on November 9th was much earlier than avg (avg first measurable snow is Nov 17th and avg first 1"+ snowfall is Nov 30th) and the high temp of 31F on November 10th missed the record low max by 3F.

Right around this time in 2019, record early heavy snow AND cold were occurring here. 

[EastonSN+]

Central Park recorded 2 accumulating snowfalls in February 2011, after the proclaimed end of winter.

1.6 on February 2

3.2 on February 21

Not bad for a la Nina February if you ask me.

[GaWx]

Natgas is up a whopping 5% due to increased late Nov-Dec cold potential.

[GaWx]

AAM is still looking to go back to a solid negative next week and last for 2 weeks. However, afterward, this is showing a move back up closer to neutral for early Dec fwiw:

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, people forget about that cool down in the last third of March 2011. Turned a solidly positive temperature departure to a near normal.

I feel like the previous winter (2009-10) was more abrupt. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow by February 10, and the snow just stopped. The change was so dramatic, to the point there was record 90-degree heat during the first week of April.

It's amazing, though, how so much snow was able to fall in such a short time during those 2 winters. And in 2 very different ENSO states (2009-10 being a strong el nino, and 2010-11 being a strong la nina).

12-26-10 to 1-27 -11 is the record around NYC Metro for 33 day snowfall at 61.5”.

Boston was able to surpass that feat from 1-24-15 through 2-25-15 with 96.3”.

Baltimore came close from 1-25-10 to 2-26-10 with 55.0”.

So very impressive for the I-95 corridor to experience such amazing snowfall production in a little over a month from 2010-2015. 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	61.5	2010-12-26 through 2011-01-27	0
2	53.6	2010-12-25 through 2011-01-26	0
3	48.7	1978-01-13 through 1978-02-14	0
4	45.7	1978-01-17 through 1978-02-18	0
5	45.5	1961-01-15 through 1961-02-16	0
6	45.2	1978-01-12 through 1978-02-13	0
7	45.0	1978-01-14 through 1978-02-15	0
8	44.9	1978-01-16 through 1978-02-17	0
-	44.9	1978-01-15 through 1978-02-16	0
10	44.8	1961-01-14 through 1961-02-15	0

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	96.3	2015-01-24 through 2015-02-25	0
2	94.4	2015-01-23 through 2015-02-24	0
-	94.4	2015-01-22 through 2015-02-23	0
-	94.4	2015-01-21 through 2015-02-22	0

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	55.0	2010-01-30 through 2010-03-03	0
-	55.0	2010-01-29 through 2010-03-02	0
-	55.0	2010-01-28 through 2010-03-01	0
-	55.0	2010-01-27 through 2010-02-28	0
-	55.0	2010-01-26 through 2010-02-27	0
-	55.0	2010-01-25 through 2010-02-26	0

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Although it doesnt directly apply to the Great Lakes, I read your outlook and you did a fantastic job. You explained/laid out everything re: your thoughts on winter 2025-26.

Thanks. I don't give regional specifics for your area, but you can deduce my thoughts based on the composites and such.  In case you couldn't, "get nude" about somes it up-