2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

96/97 was terrible here in SW connecticut. 92/93 ended up average for snowfall.

Only 93/94 and 95/96 were above average here for the decade. 

96/97 through 99/00 were abysmal.

[Jersey Andrew]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

If a AO-/NAO-/PNA+ pattern develops, it would have a higher frequency of snowfall in the New York City area and Northeast. Right now, the EPS shows the AO and NAO going negative toward November 25. The PNA remains neutral. But at this range, there's little skill. So, here are the numbers for New York City for November 25-December 10. 

Add an EPO-, and the respective percentages are 5.6%, 4.5%, 2.2% (89 cases) with all other cases being 3.2%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively (631 cases). The EPS shows an EPO-.

It should also be noted that numerous La Niña winters have gotten off to a fast start in terms of snowfall.

Separately, there's a race in time between what might be a potentially favorable snowfall pattern and a dismal snowfall statistic for New York City. Through October 31, New York City has gone 1,371 consecutive days without a 4" or above daily snowfall. The same applies for a 5" or above daily snowfall. The futility record for both cases is 1,394 consecutive days (February 22, 1929 - December 16, 1932). The futility record could be tied on November 23 and broken on November 24.

Stunning how NYC has missed out on moderate snowfall last few years after blockbuster storms in 2010s. Down here in DC area we have fared better last few seasons. Still hoping for that January 2016 redux up and down East Coast. What do you think Don?

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There was just a ton of bad luck.  It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89.  Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed 

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

Last year was a great example of a ton of bad luck. The Delmarva area and my old vacation spot of ocean city maryland are loving the past few years! Got to head south for snow.

96/97 through 99/00 were bad patterns.

All in all after personally living through both periods what we have experienced is similar, which is why I am not worried yet. Lol if this period surpasses 30 years I will worry.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Stunning how NYC has missed out on moderate snowfall last few years after blockbuster storms in 2010s. Down here in DC area we have fared better last few seasons. Still hoping for that January 2016 redux up and down East Coast. What do you think Don?

NYC did great 2000 through 2018.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

14-15 had a cold November, though. It was more like December was the outlier warm month.

I think that had to be 90-91. That was a wall-to-wall warm winter, which continued into spring and summer. Almost like a 11-12 redux.

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Stunning how NYC has missed out on moderate snowfall last few years after blockbuster storms in 2010s. Down here in DC area we have fared better last few seasons. Still hoping for that January 2016 redux up and down East Coast. What do you think Don?

With a generally quiet subtropical jet, I suspect that any large snowstorms are more likely to be of the Miller B variety. Those typically favor the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England or New England. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

For me, the 80s averaged more snow than the 90s, and people always say the 80s sucked.  The 80s were more consistent, even if that meant a bit below average, whereas the 90s had 2 boom years and several well below average.  

[GaWx]

Credit to Chris and Don for bringing this strong correlation to the board’s attention:

 Whether Dec snow at NYC is 3”+ has been a good indicator of how Jan+ has done since 1980-1:

-a whopping 23 of 28 (82%) Dec’s with <3” had <22” Jan+

-but only 4 of 17 (24%) Dec’s with 3”+ had <22” Jan+

 So, watch Dec NYC snow closely!

 Correlation didn’t work before 1980. Anyone know why?

@donsutherland1@bluewave

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

Last year was a great example of a ton of bad luck. The Delmarva area and my old vacation spot of ocean city maryland are loving the past few years! Got to head south for snow.

96/97 through 99/00 were bad patterns.

All in all after personally living through both periods what we have experienced is similar, which is why I am not worried yet. Lol if this period surpasses 30 years I will worry.

Jan/Feb 90 was the highest AO/NAO ever I think other than Jan/Feb 1989.  I still think its the record now though 2018 or 2020 may have surpassed it.  In general there's been tendencies near the solar max if you have a persistently -AO/NAO in Nov/Dec it can be a problematic issue in Jan/Feb where it swings wildly to be strongly positive.    We saw this a bit in 2000-01 too, the AO remained negative in Jan/Feb but the NAO went significantly positive the remainder of the winter.

[EasternLI]

Curious to see how the mjo behaves this week. Eps dampens the wave as it has been throughout. Gefs is more amped. But, both of those things are known biases of each respectively as far as I know (lol). In real time thus far the Gefs has been verifying better (stronger). That doesn't necessarily mean that will continue though. Nobody knows for certain, we watch. Looking forward to the CPC update on Monday. For now here's Gefs and eps forecasts followed by the current map. There does appear to be kelvin wave like feature visible too on these charts, slicing through the overall mjo signal at faster speed. Those have been a catalyst in propagating this event thus far according to other CPC updates. How well are they modeled?