2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2009-10 and 2010-11:

2013-14 and 2014-15:

[donsutherland1]

16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The group of years you picked is pretty terrible for the last full three months. Its completely wrong for the jet stream pattern over Asia for three months, and that determines what will happen for the build up of cold air in the Fall for us in the USA from both Russian and Canadian sources. You can already see the issues with it - because Asia is opposite the correspondence of the 'sin wave' so to speak puts the wrong signature over Greenland. My simple blend had it warm in October, yours is cold. The warmth I had over Northern Canada/Alaska is what will matter for the winter, and I showed it very warm for the period shown. You don't, you have the half degree warm / cold muddled crap that prevents any chance of your outlook getting US temps right later on when cold air is sourced from the North.

This is an exercise aimed at seeing if human subjectivity can be removed with an algorithm selecting analogs with a focus on the North American domain. More broadly, can analog development become an objective exercise. I don't know if that's possible right now. 

As noted in the discussion, I don't like one of the three that the algorithm chose (2011-12). I also include one (2024-25) that the algorithm did not choose. I will periodically post updates on this experiment.

If there is merit in the algorithmic approach, one should see 500 mb patterns come more in line with the composite idea  over 1- and, especially 3-month periods. The focus on this set is fall 2025 and winter 2025-26. That there is some similarity at 500 mb for winter 2025-2026 to the ECMWF forecast suggests that there's consensus on the boundary conditions and how the pattern might turn out. 

I don't believe the winter 500 mb idea from the experimental set precludes some intrusions of cold air into the CONUS during the winter, particularly the central U.S.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nat gas up +11% (with oil down a little) as of this posting. Have there been any updated cold winter forecasts from any of the respected forecasters to anyone's knowledge? 

Natural Gas Futures Surging as Weather Models Shift Dramatically Colder     

                                        Daily Gas Price Index                            Markets Report                            Natural Gas Prices            

Having trended substantially colder over the weekend, weather forecasts were in the driver’s seat Monday morning as natural gas futures mounted substantial early gains.

————

This is referring to colder 2 week forecasts, which is typically what NG reacts mainly to. They don’t normally react in a substantial way to updated winter forecasts.

[LakePaste25]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Natural Gas Futures Surging as Weather Models Shift Dramatically Colder     

                                        Daily Gas Price Index                            Markets Report                            Natural Gas Prices            

Having trended substantially colder over the weekend, weather forecasts were in the driver’s seat Monday morning as natural gas futures mounted substantial early gains.

————

This is referring to colder 2 week forecasts, which is typically what NG reacts mainly to. They don’t normally react in a substantial way to updated winter forecasts.

a little surprised by this because it’s more of a strong-storm induced cooler airmass, not canadian-sourced arctic air

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

a little surprised by this because it’s more of a strong-storm induced cooler airmass, not canadian-sourced arctic air

 

 

 

When it comes to money, those guys have itchy fingers for clicking on buy contracts.

Frankly, I  thought it was too early in the season for big nat gas usage even with BN temps. Guess I was wrong. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

a little surprised by this because it’s more of a strong-storm induced cooler airmass, not canadian-sourced arctic air

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

When it comes to money, those guys have itchy fingers for clicking on buy contracts.

Frankly, I  thought it was too early in the season for big nat gas usage even with BN temps. Guess I was wrong. 

 NG was way up at 3.55 on Oct 7th. It then plunged to the Oct 17th low of 2.89, a drop of 19%, on continued mild temperatures in the E US throughout the 2 week forecast period. This drop was caused by speculators selling to go flat or, in some cases, short.
 

 Then suddenly over this past weekend, when markets were closed, the models started cooling their late week 2 forecasts to near normal. Even though that’s not due to Canadian air, it’s still notably colder than the 2 weeks of mild that had been dialed in by the market on Friday. Thus as of Fri, the majority of spec traders had been short. Then this change to a less mild period late in week 2 meant a forecast of higher HDDs, which means newly progged higher NG usage than earlier progged.
 

 When the market opened last evening, there was a sharp gap up due to so many shorts running for the exits by buying to go flat. In addition, some of these specs decided to buy additional contracts to go long.

 
 In summary, the sharp price rise was due to a sharp increase in forecasted HDDs during the 2 week period rather than a forecast of very cold. Large changes in 2 week forecasts cause the largest price changes. Had the forecasts last week already had near normal in late week 2, prices on Friday would have been higher than they actually were and thus there wouldn’t have been today’s big rise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Natural Gas Futures Surging as Weather Models Shift Dramatically Colder     

                                        Daily Gas Price Index                            Markets Report                            Natural Gas Prices            

Having trended substantially colder over the weekend, weather forecasts were in the driver’s seat Monday morning as natural gas futures mounted substantial early gains.

————

This is referring to colder 2 week forecasts, which is typically what NG reacts mainly to. They don’t normally react in a substantial way to updated winter forecasts.

I'm sure snowman will be embedding a tweet to this effect in the AM. scoop

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nat gas up +11% (with oil down a little) as of this posting. Have there been any updated cold winter forecasts from any of the respected forecasters to anyone's knowledge? 

It's still at $3.40, which is lower than average. I like to use $5 as a gauge for expected Winter NAO state.. under $5, more +NAO, over $5 more -NAO. It was $2.99 on Friday and has risen a lot in the last 2 days.. +12% it looks like, but the market is volatile and long range models have been showing cold for a while to start November.. so it might be more about Winter expectations, but the price is not currently high... 

[snowman19]

It’s starting to look like the MJO wave isn’t going to make it past phase 6/7 (MC) before it hits strong subsidence, dies and ends up back in the IO again. That will likely result in yet another big drop in an already persistently negative AAM. As much as some things match up, at least as far as the AAM goes, this fall has been world’s apart from last year….