anthonymm Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 51 minutes ago, GaWx said: Accuwx winter forecast: opinions? Significantly more snow than last winter NE to MW and less much of SE: Cold MW and NN to slightly AN much of East: I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 57 minutes ago, anthonymm said: I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine. Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both . Snow cover up north looks good. Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 4 hours ago, anthonymm said: Here comes the screaming pac jet. All 3 winter months should be at least + 5 F for the nyc metro, plenty of -PNA, +NAO, cutters etc. Should be a massive winter for the west though. Wouldn't be surprised if Seattle racks up double whatever single digit number we get. Another bold post in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both . Snow cover up north looks good. Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years. We had that same setup last year and it was very cold (compared to the last several years). Still couldn't even crack 13" in the park, and it's unlikely next winter will be as cold as last. The setup reminds me of 2022-2023 to be honest (2" of snow that whole winter). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 23 hours ago, raindancewx said: By the way, I settled on this for analogs for temperatures for the cold season: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23 Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025 Hey Raindance, Did you figure in the QBO? It appears you didn’t and/or don’t feel it’s important enough to consider it. I’m saying that because your 2 prime analogs for Oct-Feb, 2013-4 and 2024-5, had the exact opposite QBO of where 2025-6 will be. Please explain. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021: Fall 2025 (through October 10): Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022: ECMWF DJF Forecast: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021: Fall 2025 (through October 10): Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022: ECMWF DJF Forecast: Hey Don, What do you feel are the chances that the Euro winter outlook will verify to be significantly too warm in the NE US similar to other Euro Oct winter forecasts like the +4F miss of last winter or the +2.5F miss of 2020-1? Or do you think it has a decent shot at verifying significantly too cool like 2023-4 and 2022-3, which each missed by -3F? OTOH, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, and 2017-8 all missed <2 in either direction. -Oct DJF prog misses for NE US for the 8 winters starting with 2024-5 and ending with 2017-8: +4, -3, -3, +1, +2.5, -1.5, 0, +0.5. So, avg Oct miss for DJF in the NE was ~0F meaning no apparent bias. @Daniel Boonebecause I told you I’d review the Euro to see if there were a detectable bias in either direction. I’d say the answer is no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago ENSO thread. Not the NYC who can be more wrong and whine forum. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021: Fall 2025 (through October 10): Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022: ECMWF DJF Forecast: The one main staple over the last several winters besides the negative ENSO tendency and reoccurring MJO phases has been the marine heatwave in the NW PAC around Japan. It’s been extremely anomalous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago If this pattern continues into November, at least as far as the “warm blob”/2013 SST pattern, it’s going to be real difficult to continue to use it as an SST analog. The warm blob came right back in early November, 2013 and we went into a Victoria mode PDO for the winter. So far, the cooling has not reversed over the last month and is continuing…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago On 10/11/2025 at 9:52 AM, snowman19 said: @Bluewave This may end up being the strongest storm/low in history for the Bering Sea….almost 950mb Another 5 sigma jet max for Alaska. The strong gradient between the record SSTs over the WPAC and Siberian cold is driving this. So this leads to the continuing warmth for North America. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 15 hours ago, MJO812 said: Another bold post in October. Pretty sure he's just in a bruised and battered persistence "forecasting" mindset. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago On 10/10/2025 at 7:32 PM, anthonymm said: So to be clear, last year was too suppressed for nyc, but next will be too much se ridging for us. Cool, cool we always lose. The only month last winter that suppression was an issue for NYC Metro was January. Those teleconnections could have worked for us prior to 18-19 especially in an El Niño dominant STJ pattern. But the split flow and overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet instead caused the Southern stream suppression. Both December and February were fairly wet but the storm tracks were too warm to our west for a major snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only month last winter that suppression was an issue for NYC Metro was January. Those teleconnections could have worked for us prior to 18-19 for us especially in an El Niño dominant STJ pattern. But the split flow and overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet instead caused the Southern stream suppression. Both December and February were fairly wet but the storm tracks were too warm to our west for a major snow event. DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day). While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event. I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 hours ago, GaWx said: Hey Don, What do you feel are the chances that the Euro winter outlook will verify to be significantly too warm in the NE US similar to other Euro Oct winter forecasts like the +4F miss of last winter or the +2.5F miss of 2020-1? Or do you think it has a decent shot at verifying significantly too cool like 2023-4 and 2022-3, which each missed by -3F? OTOH, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, and 2017-8 all missed <2 in either direction. -Oct DJF prog misses for NE US for the 8 winters starting with 2024-5 and ending with 2017-8: +4, -3, -3, +1, +2.5, -1.5, 0, +0.5. So, avg Oct miss for DJF in the NE was ~0F meaning no apparent bias. @Daniel Boonebecause I told you I’d review the Euro to see if there were a detectable bias in either direction. I’d say the answer is no. It's too soon to tell. Last winter's miss was unusually large. One can probably use a +/- 1°C range to consider reasonable possibilities. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 28 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day). While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event. I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened. The storms from DC to Philly in January weren’t that impressive compared to what they used to get in the past. Suppression was still at play even in northern sections of those areas. My area in February was wet but only the weaker storms were cold enough for some snows. The strongest storm had highs in the 50s and heavy rain. We can refer to luck as a one-off or random event. But the continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the much faster Northern stream of Pacific Jet since 18-19 is a dominant weather pattern that doesn’t involve luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: If this pattern continues into November, at least as far as the “warm blob”/2013 SST pattern, it’s going to be real difficult to continue to use it as an SST analog. The warm blob came right back in early November, 2013 and we went into a Victoria mode PDO for the winter. So far, the cooling has not reversed over the last month and is continuing…. I agree. That it misses on some other key variables i.e., IOD, QBO, etc., leads me to rank it lower, excluding the SSTs. It's still in the larger mix. I'll re-examine the SSTAs later this month. The October outcome could provide a powerful clue. The 2013 500 mb outcome diverges from the last monthly ECMWF forecast for October. If the ECMWF forecast is reasonably accurate, that will indicate that the 2013 scenario is off track. And if the "Blob" continues to dissipate, that would be a further signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It's too soon to tell. Last winter's miss was unusually large. One can probably use a +/- 1°C range to consider reasonable possibilities. Thanks, Don. It’s probably due to randomness, but keep in mind that the last 3 Euro Oct winter forecasts did poorly as they all missed in the NE US by 3-4F (two too cold and one too warm). Those are the 3 largest misses of the last 8 October NE winter forecasts. OTOH, the prior 5 October forecasts’ avg miss was only 1F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago MJO is forecast to make a serious pass in 5/6 by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I agree. That it misses on some other key variables i.e., IOD, QBO, etc., leads me to rank it lower, excluding the SSTs. It's still in the larger mix. I'll re-examine the SSTAs later this month. The October outcome could provide a powerful clue. The 2013 500 mb outcome diverges from the last monthly ECMWF forecast for October. If the ECMWF forecast is reasonably accurate, that will indicate that the 2013 scenario is off track. And if the "Blob" continues to dissipate, that would be a further signal.If the projected AK/GOA trough pattern continues into early November and continues to cool and erode the “warm blob” then we will have a real big SST analog divergence with 2013. Early November 2013 is when the warm blob came back with a vengeance and the PDO flipped into a Victoria mode and stayed locked in through the end of that winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The storms from DC to Philly in January weren’t that impressive compared to what they used to get in the past. Suppression was still at play even in northern sections of those areas. My area in February was wet but only the weaker storms were cold enough for some snows. The strongest storm had highs in the 50s and heavy rain. We can refer to luck as a one-off or random event. But the continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the much faster Northern stream of Pacific Jet since 18-19 is a dominant weather pattern that doesn’t involve luck. But those storms prove that last winter wasn't a no-chance winter. We've had many of those in the last 15 years (like 11-12 or 22-23). Last winter was more like 20-21. The difference is the storm tracks aligned perfectly for NYC in 20-21, not so much last winter. But the tracks were still there. Also, 20-21 proved that NYC can still have good winters post 18-19. Or was that luck, and is NYC doomed to never have a great winter 20-21? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. That it misses on some other key variables i.e., IOD, QBO, etc., leads me to rank it lower, excluding the SSTs. It's still in the larger mix. I'll re-examine the SSTAs later this month. The October outcome could provide a powerful clue. The 2013 500 mb outcome diverges from the last monthly ECMWF forecast for October. If the ECMWF forecast is reasonably accurate, that will indicate that the 2013 scenario is off track. And if the "Blob" continues to dissipate, that would be a further signal. There will be some large differences from the 2013-2014 season, but for some reason, only a certain charcter of divergences are being discussed. I don't hear much mention of the fact that this season is likely to feature more high latitude blocking. It's indirectly referenced....ie, the poor QBO match will be offered as evidence against the analog in general, but little analysis elaborates on what that may entail; a weaker PV. And I've seen the research linking the -IDO to reduced coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, and linking -QBO to reduced poleward ridging. Be that as it may, differences in an of themselves don't necessarily perclude a similar sensible weather outcome after accounting for CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 52 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: But those storms prove that last winter wasn't a no-chance winter. We've had many of those in the last 15 years (like 11-12 or 22-23). Last winter was more like 20-21. The difference is the storm tracks aligned perfectly for NYC in 20-21, not so much last winter. But the tracks were still there. Also, 20-21 proved that NYC can still have good winters post 18-19. Or was that luck, and is NYC doomed to never have a great winter 20-21? The big story last winter was diminishing snowfall returns from past La Nina strong +PNA mismatches. The past La Nina’s with strong +PNA’s from December into January all featured at least 35”+ in NYC going back to the 90s. Since this was the first time in 30 years that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax during this pattern, NYC only recorded 12.9”. So we weren’t able to see a repeat of the 38.6” in 20-21….40.9” in 17-18….40.0” in 05-06…35.0” in 00-01….75.6 in 95-96. The only times the Pacific Jet has been able to sufficiently weaken since 18-19, was during DJF 20-21 and January 22. So no luck was involved during those winters. Just solid fundamentals which allowed 20-21 to be the only snowy season in NYC out of the last 7. But there were some issues during December 2020. First, the Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge causing the storm to track very close to ACY. This shifted the record 40” snows to go inland near BGM instead of closer to the coastal plain. But thankfully, the late January into early February event took the classic KU track and delivered for much of the region. The January 22 pattern favored eastern areas for the heaviest snows. But it was still a great month for snow and cold due to the classic MJO 8 pattern. January 22 was the last both cold and snowy winter month for many across the region. Going forward we’ll have to see if maybe we can get at least one solid winter month for snow and cold like January 22. That was MJO 8 driven which allowed the Pacific Jet to weaken for a short period. As the Pacific Jet was really dominant in the other two winter months that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The big story last winter was diminishing snowfall returns from past La Nina strong +PNA mismatches. The past La Nina’s with strong +PNA’s from December into January all featured at least 35”+ in NYC going back to the 90s. Since this was the first time in 30 years that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax during this pattern, NYC only recorded 12.9”. So we weren’t able to see a repeat of the 38.6” in 20-21….40.9” in 17-18….40.0” in 05-06…35.0” in 00-01….75.6 in 95-96. The only times the Pacific Jet has been able to sufficiently weaken since 18-19, was during DJF 20-21 and January 22. So no luck was involved during those winters. Just solid fundamentals which allowed 20-21 to be the only snowy season in NYC out of the last 7. But there were some issues during December 2020. First, the Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge causing the storm to track very close to ACY. This caused the record 40” snows to go inland near BGM instead of closer to the coastal plain. But thankfully, the late January into early February event took the classic KU track and delivered for much of the region. The January 22 pattern favored eastern areas for the heaviest snows. But it was still a great month for snow and cold due to the classic MJO 8 pattern. January 22 was the last both cold and snowy winter month for many across the region. Going forward we’ll have to see if maybe we can get at least one solid winter month for snow and cold like January 22. That was MJO 8 driven which allowed the Pacific Jet to weaken for a short period. As the Pacific Jet was really dominant in the other two winter months that year. Luck was still involved in general, as it always is....this is why I finished below average snowfall in each of those seasons, as I have each season since 2018-2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There will be some large differences from the 2013-2014 season, but for some reason, only a certain charcter of divergences are being discussed. I don't hear much mention of the fact that this season is likely to feature more high latitude blocking. It's indirectly referenced....ie, the poor QBO match will be offered as evidence against the analog in general, but little analysis elaborates on what that may entail; a weaker PV. And I've seen the research linking the -IDO to reduced coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, and linking -QBO to reduced poleward ridging. Be that as it may, differences in an of themselves don't necessarily perclude a similar sensible weather outcome after accounting for CC. One doesn't need to include 2013-2014 to get some sustained periods of high latitude blocking, particularly in the EPO domain. If, and it remains conditional, 2013 falls apart in its ability to predict the fall pattern evolution, it's tough to argue that it should be retained. None of the cases, including the emerging 2021-2022 case, is perfect. But their ability to retain predictive value heading toward winter matters. For now, there is no strong evidence for a "blow torch" winter in the Northeast or Great Lakes Region. Snowfall looks better than in recent winters e.g., I posted an initial guess of 15"-25" for NYC in the NYC forum (Boston looks even better, though not a blockbuster). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Luck was still involved in general, as it always is....this is why I finished below average snowfall in each of those seasons, as I have each season since 2018-2019. There is no luck involved for the general pattern since 18-19. Maybe you can argue luck when mesoscale banding dumps the heaviest totals outside your immediate neighborhood. But the smaller number of opportunities to even get an event that can produce decent banding within a certain distance of where you live is all on the warmer storm tracks and overall patterns. So the odds have been favoring lower snowfall totals. Just like in great patterns you get more opportunities for snowy outcomes as you will eventually find yourself under the best banding since the higher number of opportunities eventually puts your neighborhood under the heaviest mesoscale banding. What happed in your area during 2021-2022? Boston got 54.0” which is around 10” above the long term average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 53 minutes ago Author Share Posted 53 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: There is no luck involved for the general pattern since 18-19. Maybe you can argue luck when mesoscale banding dumps the heaviest totals outside your immediate neighborhood. But the smaller number of opportunities to even get an event that can produce decent banding within a certain distance of where you live is all on the warmer storm tracks and overall patterns. So the odds have been favoring lower snowfall totals. Just like in great patterns you get more opportunities for snowy outcomes as you will eventually find yourself under the best banding since the higher number of opportunities eventually puts your neighborhood under the heaviest mesoscale banding. What happed in your area during 2021-2022? Boston got 54.0” which is around 10” above the long term average. No, the pattern has sucked...not arguing that. Bu no luck at all....going to have to disagree, as I often will when anyone speaks in absolutes, at least at this latitude. I had 42.5" in 2021-2022....a good 20" below my longer term average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 51 minutes ago Author Share Posted 51 minutes ago 34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: One doesn't need to include 2013-2014 to get some sustained periods of high latitude blocking, particularly in the EPO domain. If, and it remains conditional, 2013 falls apart in its ability to predict the fall pattern evolution, it's tough to argue that it should be retained. None of the cases, including the emerging 2021-2022 case, is perfect. But their ability to retain predictive value heading toward winter matters. For now, there is no strong evidence for a "blow torch" winter in the Northeast or Great Lakes Region. Snowfall looks better than in recent winters e.g., I posted an initial guess of 15"-25" for NYC in the NYC forum (Boston looks even better, though not a blockbuster). I think 2013-2014 is definitely woth of inclusion as an analog...most notably for it's statospheric reflevtion events during mid season. It's an awful polar analog...agree there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: There is no luck involved for the general pattern since 18-19. Maybe you can argue luck when mesoscale banding dumps the heaviest totals outside your immediate neighborhood. But the smaller number of opportunities to even get an event that can produce decent banding within a certain distance of where you live is all on the warmer storm tracks and overall patterns. So the odds have been favoring lower snowfall totals. Just like in great patterns you get more opportunities for snowy outcomes as you will eventually find yourself under the best banding since the higher number of opportunities eventually puts your neighborhood under the heaviest mesoscale banding. What happed in your area during 2021-2022? Boston got 54.0” which is around 10” above the long term average. lol sometimes you take things too far. Is it not lucky that central NJ got an intense lake effect like band in February of 24 that dumped over a foot overnight with no models suggesting anything close to these amounts? This one event combined with the other lighter storms brought them up to their 91-20 seasonal average for that winter. It could have easily impacted central park instead and brought them up to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago 3 hours ago, chris21 said: MJO is forecast to make a serious pass in 5/6 by the GFS. If I'm remembering correctly, isn't this what you want to see in October according to the research Bluewave has done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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