2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Accuwx winter forecast: opinions?

Significantly more snow than last winter NE to MW and less much of SE:

 

Cold MW and NN to slightly AN much of East:

I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine.

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine.

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Here comes the screaming pac jet. All 3 winter months should be at least + 5 F for the nyc metro, plenty of -PNA, +NAO, cutters etc. Should be a massive winter for the west though. Wouldn't be surprised if Seattle racks up double whatever single digit number we get.

Another bold post in October.

[anthonymm]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

We had that same setup last year and it was very cold (compared to the last several years). Still couldn't even crack 13" in the park, and it's unlikely next winter will be as cold as last. The setup reminds me of 2022-2023 to be honest (2" of snow that whole winter).

[qg_omega]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

Under 10 inches for NYC, looks warm and dry

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

By the way, I settled on this for analogs for temperatures for the cold season:

Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23

Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025

Hey Raindance,

 Did you figure in the QBO? It appears you didn’t and/or don’t feel it’s important enough to consider it. I’m saying that because your 2 prime analogs for Oct-Feb, 2013-4 and 2024-5, had the exact opposite QBO of where 2025-6 will be. Please explain. Thanks.