2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

DJF hardly below normal from around the N shore of Boston points NE into Maine screams late-blooming Miller B, to me.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even more pronounced for JFM:

[40/70 Benchmark]

CFS is MUCH warmer.....my stuff is seemingly a compromise of the two.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, chris21 said:

Mine is 40/18 in North Carolina. All elevation and location on the windward slopes.

Interesting! Our lows are a bit more elevated due to lots of overcast nights, though we still drop below zero several days annually. 

[anthonymm]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah that makes sense. Not terribly different from my avg temps. But yet another example of how snowfall is localized and very subject to other things than just the avg temp.

I wonder what a REASONABLE line or latitude is to draw a line and assume below that line is where you really need seasonable to colder than avg temps to get snow.

Based on a quick calculation, I get your DJF avg high/low as 38/20. Mine is 34/21.

Probably about 41 N. 

[chris21]

49 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting! Our lows are a bit more elevated due to lots of overcast nights, though we still drop below zero several days annually. 

Our lows are pretty cold because I’m in a deep, high valley (3800 feet, surrounded by 5500-6000 foot high mountains). On upslope snow days our temps get very cold also.

The flora on my property is pretty similar I’d imagine to your area. A lot of Beech, Yellow Birch, Sugar Maple and Basswood.

[kazimirkai]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This drought situation is actually worse than last year at this time. We have been completely devoid of widespread heavy rains in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic since late July. October looks dry as far as the eye can see
 

* Ahem* don't mind the record rainfall that Albany and southern NY received the day after this data in this map was valid 

[raindancewx]

This article is pretty consistent with my thinking on how to model winter precipitation patterns in the US. It's strongly supportive of a wetter winter nationally than last year, despite what the models show.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/how-atlantic-ocean-temps-could-impact-la-nina-2024-2025-winter-forecast

Recent seasons on the Canadian have been depicted in an MJO pattern of 4-5 for winter. The models are showing 6-7 for this winter. That's very different from recent winters, look at the depicted east African precip pattern at the equator. Look at Brazil shown wet v dry in phase five. It's not 5 like in recent years. It looks like 6-7 to me, not perfect but better than the others. We had 4-5-6 for precip nationally last winter, but made drier by the Atlantic features.

Again - this match holds up for a lot of my methods, although it isn't quite what I expect. But it did have 106 ACE as an example which still feels about right.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This article is pretty consistent with my thinking on how to model winter precipitation patterns in the US. It's strongly supportive of a wetter winter nationally than last year, despite what the models show.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/how-atlantic-ocean-temps-could-impact-la-nina-2024-2025-winter-forecast

Recent seasons on the Canadian have been depicted in an MJO pattern of 4-5 for winter. The models are showing 6-7 for this winter. That's very different from recent winters, look at the depicted east African precip pattern at the equator. Look at Brazil shown wet v dry in phase five. It's not 5 like in recent years. It looks like 6-7 to me, not perfect but better than the others. We had 4-5-6 for precip nationally last winter, but made drier by the Atlantic features.

Again - this match holds up for a lot of my methods, although it isn't quite what I expect. But it did have 106 ACE as an example which still feels about right.

It also looks like some phase 5 forcing on the CANSIPS anomaly maps. But yea, 5-6-7 look dominant verbatim

[snowman19]

This cooling actually started before 15 days ago. Now we watch, either the warm blob comes back by December (2013), or Paul Roundy’s opinion that a classic cold horseshoe develops by winter comes to fruition 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Consensus has a similar look with respec to tropical convection.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_ssto_3m?area=area08&base_time=202509010000&type=ensm&valid_time=202512010000

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

07-08 was a shit show south of New England

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

07-08 was a shit show south of New England

I'm as shocked that you chose to point that out as I'm sure everyone else is...

I do foresee a gradient aspect to this season... maybe it's a bit further north than that year owed to CC....just gonna have to see. I think it's a pretty decent west Pacific analog in that it was more neutral than the majority of the past decade, albeit not outright negative like 2021-2022. I think the mid atlantic will have a better shot later in the season than earlier....just my early thoughts.

I don't see this season as a KU cookbook, though we will have a window or two. With cold in SE Canada and systems trying to cut west/moisture trying to overrun antecedent cold, you will probably want latitude.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

07-08 was a shit show south of New England

That is one that didn't really follow the early season la nina rule. We got the snowstorm on Dec 5, which would have normally meant a great snow year, but the season fell apart instead.

The rest of the winter had very little snow, aside from the Feb 22 event, with January-April slightly above average temperature.

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This cooling actually started before 15 days ago. Now we watch, either the warm blob comes back by December (2013), or Paul Roundy’s opinion that a classic cold horseshoe develops by winter comes to fruition 

that's going to flip back over the next couple of weeks with the anomalous ridge developing there

[snowman19]

Unlike last year when we had the strong +AAM, this year the AAM is ridiculously negative. We are very clearly in a La Niña atmospheric state this time around @bluewave @donsutherland1
 

[BlizzardWx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

That was when one of the worst ice storms for northeast OK occurred. Please no

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's going to flip back over the next couple of weeks with the anomalous ridge developing there

EPS weeklies try to bring the GOA trough back by the 20th of this month. But on the other hand they didn't see this GOA ridge until a few days ago. But considering this GOA ridge will probably be a dominant feature this winter I am not surprised to see it poking back up. 

[jm1220]

On 10/1/2025 at 9:38 AM, anthonymm said:

Probably about 41 N. 

2015-16 was an above to much above average temp winter here and snow wise was above normal. You have to remember as you go south you need less snow overall to get to normal and one epic pattern or good luck can get you there. I don’t take much stock in temp maps that show above normal and think that means it’ll automatically mean it’s another bad snow winter. If I see another setup for more stretches of a horrendously bad Pacific that means much more to me.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

EPS weeklies try to bring the GOA trough back by the 20th of this month. But on the other hand they didn't see this GOA ridge until a few days ago. But considering this GOA ridge will probably be a dominant feature this winter I am not surprised to see it poking back up. 

yeah, not the best job

[anthonymm]

33 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

EPS weeklies try to bring the GOA trough back by the 20th of this month. But on the other hand they didn't see this GOA ridge until a few days ago. But considering this GOA ridge will probably be a dominant feature this winter I am not surprised to see it poking back up. 

What makes you say a ridge in the goa will be a prominent feature?

[anthonymm]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

2015-16 was an above to much above average temp winter here and snow wise was above normal. You have to remember as you go south you need less snow overall to get to normal and one epic pattern or good luck can get you there. I don’t take much stock in temp maps that show above normal and think that means it’ll automatically mean it’s another bad snow winter. If I see another setup for more stretches of a horrendously bad Pacific that means much more to me.

Crap ninos tend to be a bit better than crap ninas cause at least you can shoot up a big L up the coast and cross your fingers it happens to align with a cold shot. That basically just doesn't happen in ninas.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past.

It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

EPS weeklies try to bring the GOA trough back by the 20th of this month. But on the other hand they didn't see this GOA ridge until a few days ago. But considering this GOA ridge will probably be a dominant feature this winter I am not surprised to see it poking back up. 

The new CANSIPS is showing more of an Aleutian ridge regime than an Alaskan ridge regime this winter

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Unlike last year when we had the strong +AAM, this year the AAM is ridiculously negative. We are very clearly in a La Niña atmospheric state this time around @bluewave @donsutherland1
 

I agree. I suspect that's part of the reason we saw a very warm end to September across much of the CONUS.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If I see another setup for more stretches of a horrendously bad Pacific that means much more to me.

Unfortunately, the jet max out near the Aleutians was one of the strongest on record for late September. Right along the northern gradient of that record SST pool.

Looks like more of the same next few days with a daily 5 sigma jet max. We saw how this lead to the record warmth around our area in late September.

It’s no surprise the models are so warm for early October with near 90° heat forecast  in places like MSP.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMPX&e=202510021750

These strong southerly winds will also usher 
in a very warm airmass, with highs both Friday and Saturday expected 
to be up around 90 west of I-35 and south of I-94 both days, which 
will put record highs in play both days for MSP and STC. The only 
saving grace when it comes to this heat is dewpoints won't be 
horrendous, mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Still, when the Twin 
Cities has only seen the high meet or exceed 90 in October 3 times 
going back to 1872, this a rare airmass for us to see so late into 
the season.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Crap ninos tend to be a bit better than crap ninas cause at least you can shoot up a big L up the coast and cross your fingers it happens to align with a cold shot. That basically just doesn't happen in ninas.

A Nino in general is better for this area than Nina not factoring in anything else. We also had the Feb 2003, Feb 1983, missed 2/6/10 by a hair, etc huge Nino fueled storms. Nina by its nature generally favors the upper Midwest and New England, but obviously other factors especially today with the boiling W PAC play a major role. 2023-24 was basically a Nina with a lot more rain and one snowstorm here in Feb even though on paper it was strong El Niño. The overall unfavorable Pacific completely messed it up.