2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2019-2020 was pretty damn positive.

I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not 

No, I wasn't implying that.....the implication was as stated....we are due for more aggressive regresson in other areas. I think wall-to-wall anything is difficult to pull off....2011-2012 did it, but February was close.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2020-2021 was actually a pretty positive EPO, too...just wasn't that warm.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12-13: ENSO neutral

13-14: ENSO neutral

14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino

15-16: super el nino

16-17: weak la nina

17-18: weak la nina

18-19: weak el nino

19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino

20-21: moderate la nina

21-22: moderate la nina

22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating)

23-24: strong el nino

24-25: ENSO neutral

I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

12-13: ENSO neutral

13-14: ENSO neutral

14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino

15-16: super el nino

16-17: weak la nina

17-18: weak la nina

18-19: weak el nino

19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino

20-21: moderate la nina

21-22: moderate la nina

22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating)

23-24: strong el nino

24-25: ENSO neutral

I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

I looked back to 2016-2017....so not 10 years yet, but it will be because we aren't having an El Nino this season.

I will give you 2018-2019 as a weak El Nino, but not 2019-2020...that was neutral. And if you are going to consider 2018-2019 El Nino, which is fine, then you have to consider 2024-2025 weak La Nina.

Lets be consistent here.

[Terpeast]

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

12-13: ENSO neutral

13-14: ENSO neutral

14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino

15-16: super el nino

16-17: weak la nina

17-18: weak la nina

18-19: weak el nino

19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino

20-21: moderate la nina

21-22: moderate la nina

22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating)

23-24: strong el nino

24-25: ENSO neutral

I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

24-25 was weak La Niña IMO

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are "due" for a lot of things right now, but +EPO wouldn't be the most prominent item on my list.

I mean...we have had 2 -WPO seasons over the past decade.....I haven't had one normal or above snowfall season in a decade. I won't include temps because we all know why that is. We have had 7 La Nina seasons out of 10 years, and 1 El Nino...and the El Nino season was still largely negated by the prominent cool ENSO hemispheric base state.

This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH?

In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH?

In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. 

KLWM

It's a combo meal of bad patterns and bad luck...Chris is right that the PAC het has caused supression and cutters....but we have also had some bad breaks on a regional scale, and for me locally...we have had a couple of seasons that performed well regionally, but my specific area was still boned.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20.

24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

Not really debatable that it's a weak La Nina unless you soley rely on the archaic ONI.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20.

24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25.

No...it wasn't. You keep asserting this, but check your facts. The MEI briefly touched 0.5 for one bi-monthlyh period and the RONI peaked at .24 in OND.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2024-2025 peaked with a RONI of -1.12 and an MEI of 1..borderline moderate.

It was certainly a La Nina, again, unless you are tethering yourself to the ONI, which is ill-advise. It's important to be wholistic considering CC.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

Based on RONI, 2024-5 was a moderate La Niña:

ASO  2024 -0.75
SON  2024 -0.81
OND  2024 -0.92
NDJ  2024 -1.07
DJF  2025 -1.12
JFM  2025 -0.89
FMA  2025 -0.67

Related to this, the Australian BoM has switched from ONI to RONI for its official model forecasts: says we’re already in a weak La Niña though it will weaken starting in Nov: