2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think some fluke snowy winters are still possible though if the warming has altered the Pacific pattern that much that it's irreversible then I'm not even confident about that. 

Kinda crazy that people born in the last few years may never experience another snowy winter in our region 

Thats bold

This winter has a chance to be a good winter as long as the Nina doesn't get strong

 

[so_whats_happening]

[EasternLI]

 

[GaWx]

 Thanks to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. 

 With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely now…I’d say 3% chance.

@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thank to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. 

 With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely now…I’d say 3% chance.

@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats 

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats 

Thanks. Everyone’s wrong sometime, even you who has often been right. And 100+ isn’t a guarantee yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/26/2025 at 4:19 PM, kazimirkai said:

Well I think he was implying that it formed as a result of the event rather than necessarily during it. His name is Paul Roundy and has a lot of neat papers on seasonal climatology fyi. I can ask about the details next class if you want, don't fully know myself tbh. 

Oh, Paul Roundy...wow. You're in good hands. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats 

Yea, no harm.....happens to all of us. I admire that you put yourself out there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It was a little telling that NOAA put out a forecast for 13-19 NS earlier in the season... they usually don't bust that bad. They had 18-25 last year, which looked like it was going to be way off mid-season then we came back at the end and hit the range. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thank to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. 

 With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely n@PhiEaglesfan712

I think about 125 ACE and up is considered above normal.....so add another feather in the cap of poleward Aleutian riding this season if that indeed comes to fruition.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think about 125 points and up is considered above normal.....so add another feather in the cap of poleward Aleutian riding this season if that indeed comes to fruition.

I don’t think we’re going to see anywhere near the amount of poleward ridging that we did last winter 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Hyperactive hurricane seasons (180+ ACE) by decade:

1890s (1) - 1893

1900s, 1910s (0)

1920s (1) - 1926

1930s (1) - 1933

1940s (0)

1950s (1, possibly 2) - 1950, 1955 (maybe)

1960s (1) - 1961

1970s, 1980s (0)

1990s (2) - 1995, 1998

2000s (2) - 2004, 2005

2010s (1) - 2017

2020s (1) - 2020

Arranged by gap

33 years - (1961-1995)

32 years - (1893-1926)

16 years - (1933-1950)

11 years - (2005-2017)

10 years - (1950-1961*)

6 years - (1926-1933)

5 years - (1998-2004)

current gap (2020-present) is 4 years, likely to become 5 at the end of the season

2 years - (1995-1998; 2017-2020)

0 years - (2004-2005)

* - gaps become 4 years (1950-1955) and 5 years (1955-1961) if 1955 is counted

Arranged by 10 ACE

180-190 (2) - 2020 (180.3725), 1998 (181.8838) [1955 is 178.585]

190-200 (1) - 1961 (196.95)

200-210, 210-220 (0)

220-230 (5) - 2017 (224.8775), 1926 (225.7788), 2004 (226.94), 1950 (227.1413), 1995 (227.5513)

230-240 (2) - 1893 (231.0738), 1933 (235.785)

240-250 (1) - 2005 (247.65)

[bluewave]

Really impressive to get 12 Category 5 hurricanes in a decade.

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive to get 12 Category 5 hurricanes in a decade.

 

When they get going they have become really nice storms this year. Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto all have had amazing satellite imagery.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive to get 12 Category 5 hurricanes in a decade.

 

And don't forget about the 8 in 5 years between Isabel (in 2003) and Dean/Felix (in 2007). [We still need 2 more between now and next year to tie that one.]

That's 20 Category 5 hurricanes since 2003, which is about one per year.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive to get 12 Category 5 hurricanes in a decade.

 

I think that's the future blueprint for tropical systems going forward in the CC era. More quality over quantity.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think we’re going to see anywhere near the amount of poleward ridging that we did last winter 

I don't agree. I can't find on piece of data that argues against it...don't mean it will necessairly work out, but I the point is I see. no reason to bet against it....polar analogs, weak, basin-wide to east-based La Niña, strong E QBO/near solar max, normal to above average ACE.....name it.

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree. I can't find on piece of data that argues against it...don't mean it will necessairly work out, but I the point is I see. no reason to bet against it....polar analogs, weak, basin-wide to east-based La Niña, strong E QBO/near solar max, normal to above average ACE.....name it.

Looks like a PAC jet from hell winter to me…

[DarkSharkWX]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree. I can't find on piece of data that argues against it...don't mean it will necessairly work out, but I the point is I see. no reason to bet against it....polar analogs, weak, basin-wide to east-based La Niña, strong E QBO/near solar max, normal to above average ACE.....name it.

why/how/in what way does ace matter for winter? i've seen a few people mention it before but its not widely described

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

why/how/in what way does ace matter for winter? i've seen a few people mention it before but its not widely described

The ACE relationship to winter is extremely sketchy at best

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like a PAC jet from hell winter to me…

Might I suggest you go back there.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The ACE relationship to winter is extremely sketchy at best

Yeah, not alot of correlation really.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The ACE relationship to winter is extremely sketchy at best

Okay, care to acknowledge the other five factors I mentioned?

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, care to acknowledge the other five factors I mentioned?

We disagree on poleward ridging. -QBO/-ENSO supports a destabilized tropical tropopause, on equator forcing/convection and a flat Aleutian ridge. Not saying no poleward ridging at all but as much as we saw last winter? Nope IMO

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1 Here comes your warm/dry -PDO October

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We disagree on poleward ridging. -QBO/-ENSO supports a destabilized tropical tropopause, on equator forcing/convection and a flat Aleutian ridge. Not saying no poleward ridging at all but as much as we saw last winter? Nope IMO

Well, I've showed you the composite, and it simply isn't true.

False.

Whether it's a coincidence or not, there is also a clear tend in the ACE composites.

 

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I've showed you the composite, and it simply isn't true.

False.

Whether it's a coincidence or not, there is also a clear tend in the ACE composites.

 

Even if we go above 100 ACE, which seems likely now, I very seriously doubt we go above normal and the ACE connection to winter is extremely questionable anyway

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even if we go above 100 ACE, which seems likely now, I very seriously doubt we go above normal and the ACE connection to winter is extremely questionable anyway

This is fair....TBH, I struggle to see the connection either, but there is a pattern evident in the composites. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is a composite of seasons since 1950 that I would consider to be cool ENSO and fully Easterly QBO at botht he 30mb and 50mb levels throughout the vast majotiyy of the winter DJFM season....not extremely poleward, but I wouldn't consider that Aleutian ridge to be "flat":