2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think some fluke snowy winters are still possible though if the warming has altered the Pacific pattern that much that it's irreversible then I'm not even confident about that. 

Kinda crazy that people born in the last few years may never experience another snowy winter in our region 

Thats bold

This winter has a chance to be a good winter as long as the Nina doesn't get strong

 

[so_whats_happening]

[EasternLI]

 

[GaWx]

 Thank to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. 

 With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely now…I’d say 3% chance.

@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thank to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. 

 With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely now…I’d say 3% chance.

@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats 

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats 

Thanks. Everyone’s wrong sometime, even you who has often been right. And 100+ isn’t a guarantee yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/26/2025 at 4:19 PM, kazimirkai said:

Well I think he was implying that it formed as a result of the event rather than necessarily during it. His name is Paul Roundy and has a lot of neat papers on seasonal climatology fyi. I can ask about the details next class if you want, don't fully know myself tbh. 

Oh, Paul Roundy...wow. You're in good hands. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats 

Yea, no harm.....happens to all of us. I admire that you put yourself out there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It was a little telling that NOAA put out a forecast for 13-19 NS earlier in the season... they usually don't bust that bad. They had 18-25 last year, which looked like it was going to be way off mid-season then we came back at the end and hit the range. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thank to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. 

 With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely now…I’d say 3% chance.

@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

I think about 125 points and up is considered above normal.....so add another feather in the cap of poleward Aleutian riding this season if that indeed comes to fruition.