2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

And many on you tube and elsewhere are calling for a cold E US winter? Does that jibe with the warmest N Pacific on record?

Yes it does.

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I prefer to study females, but you do you.

Lol. I didn't notice that. Should or proof read. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Yes it does.

The top 5 analog years are all in the last 5 years. How have you done in the last 5 years?

The next two weeks should have a trough in the NE N. Pacific. If people are freaking out about warm SSTAs there, there really shouldn't be a strong, persistent trough developing but the atmosphere comes first and SSTs 2nd. In 2 weeks the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska should cool.. 

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Lol. I didn't notice that. Should or proof read. 

Ha...sentence about proofreading wasn't proofread 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

+QBO causes the tropical tropopause to stabilize which makes convection focus further off the equator which shifts the pattern more poleward, -QBO would have more active MJO(in general) but more focused on the equator

Yes, that was a big part of HM’s disco on this topic (-QBO/-ENSO resulting in a flat Aleutian ridge and +QBO/-ENSO resulting in a poleward Aleutian high). He actually went into a very detailed disco with a bunch of images in his blog. Shame I can’t find it anymore to share on here

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

I have been discussing this for a while now. The rapid expansion of the mid-latitude ridging has been altering the way that the higher latitude teleconnections have been occurring relative to the past. We have also been seeing a much faster Pacific Jet with the record mid-latitude SSTs under these expanding ridges.

The current SSTs in the WPAC match several other years that went on to see +WPO winters

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

And many on you tube and elsewhere are calling for a cold E US winter? Does that jibe with the warmest N Pacific on record?

Both hotter extremes and colder extremes and drier weather-- I LIKE!!

Are you switching around to my view that we are now headed directly into an -AMO even if it doesn't show it on indices?

Two years in a row with drier summers and falls and lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.  I think we might be headed to another dry and coldish winter, just like last winter too.

[kazimirkai]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the PNA will be volatile and average near neutral...we should be a big +month in January that will coincide with +NAO.

How do you forecast PNA and NAO so far ahead? Are you just running on analogs?

[anthonymm]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The top 5 analog years are all in the last 5 years. How have you done in the last 5 years?

The next two weeks should have a trough in the NE N. Pacific. If people are freaking out about warm SSTAs there, there really shouldn't be a strong, persistent trough developing but the atmosphere comes first and SSTs 2nd. In 2 weeks the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska should cool.. 

I'm not saying its gonna be a cold winter (I dont think it will). He was just asking whether or not a warm north pacific is consistent with a cold east coast winter (it obviously is).

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I'm not saying it’s gonna be a cold winter (I dont think it will). He was just asking whether or not a warm north pacific is consistent with a cold east coast winter (it obviously is).

I thought it was a warm NE Pac that had some correlation to a cold E US winter rather than a warm N Pac overall, which is what I believe is the current case.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I thought it was a warm NE Pac that had some correlation to a cold E US winter rather than a warm N Pac overall, which is what I believe is the current case.

Correct

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I thought it was a warm NE Pac that had some correlation to a cold E US winter rather than a warm N Pac overall, which is what I believe is the current case.

It didn’t work out for the 2019-2020 winter since the rest of the Pacific was so warm with the record IOD reversal which supercharged the SPV during the fall when it was so positive.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I'm not saying its gonna be a cold winter (I dont think it will). He was just asking whether or not a warm north pacific is consistent with a cold east coast winter (it obviously is).

it could be a cold and dry winter like last winter was.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it could be a cold and dry winter like last winter was.

That's a pretty rare winter pattern for our area (speaking the tristate area). Warm and wet usually wins.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

That's a pretty rare winter pattern for our area (speaking the tristate area). Warm and wet usually wins.

It's more common than one might expect. Here's the data for winters 1979-80 through 2024-25:

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, kazimirkai said:

How do you forecast PNA and NAO so far ahead? Are you just running on analogs?

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-extra-tropical-pacific-for.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

[snowman19]

Looks like the Niña/-IOD standing wave has set up

[snowman19]

The time has come to admit that this is not going to be a hyperactive (ACE/named storms) Atlantic tropical season. The ship has sailed folks
 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it could be a cold and dry winter like last winter was.

For JFK December was warm and wet finishing +0.9° with 4.44” of precipitation. January was near normal and dry at +0.2 and only 0.65” of precipitation. February was warm and wet finishing at +2.7 and 3.17” of precipitation.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The time has come to admit that this is not going to be a hyperactive (ACE/named storms) Atlantic tropical season. The ship has sailed folks
 

 Thanks, Snowman.

1. Agreed. I think it’s absolutely fascinating what’s been going on this peak season so far. The last time Sept had no TC this far into the month was way back in 1992! It had its first Sep TC on Sep 17th. If 2025 doesn’t get a TD+ by Sep 17th (going to be close because of many models progging the current E MDR AEW to become a TD near or just after that day; also have to make sure the low off of NC doesn’t become a TD), then 2025 would have the latest 1st Sep TC since 1939’s Sep 23rd!
 

2. But to clarify, predictions from reputable forecasters were for slightly to moderately above avg activity rather than hyperactive. Also, mine (which can be seen in the AmerWx Contest thread) was for only slightly above avg ACE of 139 as well as 14 NS, 9 H, and 3 MH:

2. Don, Chris, and myself found with our research over the last month and posted ITT that any correlation between ACE and NYC snowfall the following winter has been weak at best. So, it not being hyper doesn’t say much as regards NYC snowfall prognosis. The slight correlation at best means the chance this season of 35”+ there in 25-26 is decreased only a little by a not AN ACE season.

[raindancewx]

On 9/5/2025 at 8:59 PM, raindancewx said:

Some context on La Nina ACE through August. We finished at 39 in the Atlantic. 

30-50 La Nina ACE, through Aug 31 since 1930 () and then final ACE after the slash.

1942 (36.1) / 62.5

1956 (32.5) / 56.7

1964 (39.7) / 153

1998 (44.7) / 181.8

2000 (43.7) / 119.1

2007 (38.0) / 73.9

2010 (45.1) / 165.5

2011 (36.7) / 126.3

2016 (31.5) / 141.3 excluding the Jan 2016 system

2017 (30.4) / 224.9

2020 (43.0) / 179.8

2021 (44.4) / 145.7

 

If you use the seasons above that finish at 0-40 ACE for Sept (I doubt it will be that high or that low but 20 seems about right with some activity likely by month end), you end up with this much smaller group of La Nina seasons.

1942 (9.9 Sept)

1956 (9.4 Sept)

2007 (29.0 Sept)

2016 (27.3 Sept)

Those are your 30-50 ACE June-Aug, with 0-40 ACE Sept La Nina years. Can narrow down more as September finishes. Very cold in the North & West in January of those years, fairly cold in December & March too. Feb very warm. As a reminder, 20 ACE would be a 100 kt sustained wind hurricane observation recorded at each of the six hour official advisory times...for five days in a row. Since 100 kts x 100 / 10,000 = 1 ace point (1 pt x 5 days x (24 hrs/6 hr space per observation) = 20). 

We may have the next Atlantic tropical storm in a day or two, but its already pretty far west to have a super long period as a major hurricane starting from nothing, if it develops. In a La Nina context, the 2017 September is useful anti-log - very low solar (we're very high now), very high activity September (175 ACE). You also had more of a classic hot West/cold East Summer (Jun-Aug) in 2017 which we didn't see this year.

High solar is probably weakly correlated to inactive hurricane seasons long-term. But its a little hard to tell as we haven't had a whole lot of super high solar years (July-June) in recent times with the Atlantic warmer. July 2024-June 2025 finished at 149 sunspots/month, but prior ~peaks/near peaks have been well over 200-250.

[BlizzardWx]

59 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

If you use the seasons above that finish at 0-40 ACE for Sept (I doubt it will be that high or that low but 20 seems about right with some activity likely by month end), you end up with this much smaller group of La Nina seasons.

1942 (9.9 Sept)

1956 (9.4 Sept)

2007 (29.0 Sept)

2016 (27.3 Sept)

Those are your 30-50 ACE June-Aug, with 0-40 ACE Sept La Nina years. Can narrow down more as September finishes. Very cold in the North & West in January of those years, fairly cold in December & March too. Feb very warm. As a reminder, 20 ACE would be a 100 kt sustained wind hurricane observation recorded at each of the six hour official advisory times...for five days in a row. Since 100 kts x 100 / 10,000 = 1 ace point (1 pt x 5 days x (24 hrs/6 hr space per observation) = 20). 

We may have the next Atlantic tropical storm in a day or two, but its already pretty far west to have a super long period as a major hurricane starting from nothing, if it develops. In a La Nina context, the 2017 September is useful anti-log - very low solar (we're very high now), very high activity September (175 ACE). You also had more of a classic hot West/cold East Summer (Jun-Aug) in 2017 which we didn't see this year.

High solar is probably weakly correlated to inactive hurricane seasons long-term. But its a little hard to tell as we haven't had a whole lot of super high solar years (July-June) in recent times with the Atlantic warmer. July 2024-June 2025 finished at 149 sunspots/month, but prior ~peaks/near peaks have been well over 200-250.

Interesting how different this summer has been than some of those years. Obviously you have to adjust the mean anomaly up or down for the various years, but where we had ridge-trough-ridge across the conus (this year), both of these other years were the opposite. Polar domain also looks quite different. Not sure what it means or not, but in my mind its the idea that the ACE correlation isn't great because there are many paths to low or high ACE. 

[GaWx]

 After waiting 2 1/2 weeks for the daily WCS PDO to update, it FINALLY updated today! A lot has been happening since. As of the previous update, it had bounced back down some to ~-2.75 after having risen a lot to ~-2.0 ~ten days earlier. Since then, it rose back up steeply to ~-1.5 on Sept 6th. Then it fell back some to ~-1.95 on Sept 11th. It rose back some since to the -1.77 shown below for Sept 13th. As a reminder the comparable NOAA daily would likely be ~~-2.75, which itself represents a steep climb from the daily lows near -4.5 in July:

[Daniel Boone]

On 9/12/2025 at 11:30 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Ha...sentence about proofreading wasn't proofread 

Lol. Can't believe I did that ! Should wear my Reader's. Big Thumbs don't work too well texting.